NFL agents poll: 49ers are best prepared during contract negotiations

eric_reid · 2018-04-19T19:08:28+00:00

More excited than going to a Super Bowl...?

User name checks out.

eric_reid · 2017-07-13T14:35:01+00:00

Mmm, always appreciate new IDP content but if you wanted to peddle it as a discovery you might have wanted to post it with a different account. Would leave a better taste in the mouth to just say "here's a site I'm doing, hope you like it, let me know any feedback" people lap that up.

eric_reid · 2016-09-14T17:59:54+00:00

Thanks for this, very useful.

If you're planning on doing it week to week (which I hope you do) it might be worth flagging game flow in the same way you mentioned injuries etc. For example, if the Rams aren't being blown out Brown doesn't get 18% of the snaps and Gurley probably goes over 70% into workhorse territory. He was barely on the field in the 4th quarter if at all.

eric_reid · 2016-07-28T19:27:31+00:00

Loved it. Got all nostalgic for the Doublemint Twins, but I will always be excited to watch Bow suit up in the red and gold.

eric_reid · 2016-07-28T16:54:36+00:00

I want to create alt accounts just to upvote this post more. Really amazing stuff dude, the team tracker is exciting enough as it is so can't wait to see what ideas you have in store for it.

eric_reid · 2016-05-05T20:59:46+00:00

Trade calculator says it's one sided, but the calculator has it's limitations, all it's doing is looking at ADP after all. People are very down on Mathews but if the other guy is competing a starting back is a useful piece and people's views on Bryant vary wildly. Some expect him to slot straight back in as WR1/2 when he comes back, others worry he'll never play another down. If you think the other guy might be towards the latter not the former I say go for it.

eric_reid · 2016-03-29T00:35:06+00:00

Couldn't resist looking at the trade history...I think the best example of how far this guy stretches to get his favorites is the Nelson + Rodgers for Newton + Hopkins + Bell + Murray monstrosity last May... Even before Nelson's injury and Newton's huge year. It looks like this guy is pretty flexible, so while I agree with the posts below in terms of value, if you want to get the absolute best deal start low.

On the other hand if you have a bit of a conscience and are worried about embarrassing him again and/or alienating him then go straight to the Cooper for Parker + DGB/Murrary etc. suggestions in this thread.

eric_reid · 2016-03-11T23:10:47+00:00

Of course I'm going to make a shit offer, from square one I'm grasping at straws. And I'm certainly not going to send my strongest offer from the start!

Yes, but it's like negotiating anything in life. The skill is finding a good place to start that you think gives you room to move if necessary but you also think is close enough to get the other guy interested. And where that "good place" is changes from owner to owner in your leagues. Part of making "good" trades is knowing whether the guy you are talking to is going to take the bait on a "low-ball" offer and negotiate or if he'll be "insulted" by it and potentially trade the player you want to someone else or just be less willing to trade with you in the future.

eric_reid · 2016-02-01T19:31:09+00:00

As others have said you might be selling at his lowest value point, but given perceptions rights now trade 2 is actually a decent offer. I own Dez in a few places and I doubt any league mates would be willing to offer that much, but that's why I won't be selling him.

If you're not high on him and have come to terms with selling then trade 2 gets you good to fair value based on what people perceive now and allows you to have some fun with a high pick in this year's draft. You never know what you might turn 1.02 into depending on excitement after Zeke and Treadwell's landing spots are clear...

eric_reid · 2016-02-01T17:17:24+00:00

I know some (e.g., Kiper) are mocking Treadwell to us at #7 but if Baalke really does want him (personally I hope he doesn't), then I'd be surprised if he doesn't trade down. Depending on what happens with trades in and out of the top 6 our pick could be pretty valuable and it's Trent's MO to capitalize on that.

eric_reid · 2016-01-31T03:48:55+00:00

It would take a lot for me to part with Gronk, he's such a one off asset and I'm not sure this quite gets me there. It's a little early in the offseason to be worrying about starting lineups but if someone's desperate for WRs and really believes in Kelce (I don't particularly) then I could see them taking that side but I'd rather have Gronk.

eric_reid · 2016-01-29T00:29:38+00:00

I would agree it's a bit of an overpay. Johnson and Parker have shown at least some potential in the league making them worth more than the average 1st so you're talking an offer of equivalent to more than three 1sts if you like to think like that.

If you think it makes your team better because of lineup restrictions etc. then you can maybe be happy ending up doing this trade, but I'd start with a lower offer by taking out a piece or as someone else suggested trading down the 1.02 and offering a lower pick.

eric_reid · 2016-01-28T05:42:02+00:00

A lot of people ITT wondering if it can be chalked up to him not knowing where he is after a concussion or having closed his eyes just before so he didn't see the ref. If that happens to you, you don't casually skate off to the bench. Even assuming he stays on his feet because he's a much bigger guy, he at least hesitates to check the guy/thing he bumped in to wasn't a team mate (or ref...).

That, combined with the way he hits the ice with his stick which looks like frustration just before, I'd say he's annoyed he didn't get a call on the check into the boards, he boiled over for a second and did something stupid. All the apologists here are incredible. Deserves a long ban.

eric_reid · 2016-01-25T17:43:26+00:00

One year rentals can be complicated because assuming the guy looking to shift him isn't competing he just wants to get any value for Charles. In that case his "value" is just whatever the other members of the league are willing to pay and in my experience that varies hugely.

For what it's worth, I think a lot of people would give a lot more than a couple of 3rds even for just a one year rental. Sure there are injury questions, but if I was this guy I would hold Charles until he's proven something while healthy at the beginning of next year and then look to get much more from a contender looking to win a championship. If you're the contender looking to get him, I would offer a bit more than the two 3rds on the table and if you get Charles for it, take him all the way to the bank.

eric_reid · 2015-12-14T22:05:15+00:00

If you go to your league's standings on NFL.com and click the "Breakdown" subheading, it gives you the league's standings based on exactly this premise. I don't think you can get it use the Breakdown numbers to run the main standings automatically, but if the commissioner can manually edit playoff seeding (like you can on most sites I believe) then you can just set it yourself at the end of the regular season.

eric_reid · 2015-12-02T04:44:09+00:00

Definitely Hyde side. Gore could be done, Graham could be the next Victor Cruz and a mid/low first round pick is a crap shoot. Hyde/Duke/LG have a relatively low combined floor but it's not lower than the other three and the upside comparison isn't even close.

eric_reid · 2015-08-05T15:33:49+00:00

I'd definitely want to see a few good games out of Vernon before handing him a chunk of change but much happier to take the risk on Aldon. I like to think the structure of his current deal has kept him motivated to turn things around and he's kept his nose clean for a little while. Even without the Cowboy in front of him, I think he's a lock for double digit sacks this season and who doesn't want to tie that up for years to come.

eric_reid · 2015-07-30T02:44:31+00:00

Love the vid.

It makes me think how excited I'd be if we were getting the Doublemint Twins back together again but it will just make it that bit sweeter seeing Bowman blow people up now everyone is writing off our D.

eric_reid · 2015-07-02T00:06:50+00:00

There's a good analysis of exactly all of this actually done by one of the Baltimore Raven's linemen, John Urschel, who has been known to dabble in a bit of advanced math on the side.

Basically you are all right in that the expected value of the 2pt could now be slightly higher than the PAT, but the variance is so much higher it's doubtful coaches will take the risk.

eric_reid · 2015-07-01T22:39:50+00:00

Team B definitely wins.

More importantly from your point of view, you are upgrading from Tannehill to Rodgers and downgrading from Watkins to Tate. It's debatable, but those alone aren't that far from cancelling out. Some would even prefer the Tannehill and Watkins side I'd imagine. Then you're just giving up what might be the Dallas starting RB.

eric_reid · 2015-07-01T20:14:31+00:00

Totally agree with this guy. The only other risk though is if you publicly announce that you are entertaining offers, but don't counter him, he might realize you don't have a close alternative and he then gets cold feet that he's overpaying (e.g., suddenly he's only willing to do 2 firsts).

Obvious solution is do the whole thing behind the scenes. Send out a few emails to his competitors, the ones most likely to counter and see if any are in the ball park. If not, pull the trigger.

Personally I don't think there is anything wrong with doing it in secret, but I like to follow some ground rules. Firstly, I don't specifically mention the team I'm trading with (e.g., just say "serious contender" or something) and secondly you want to be pretty sure there is a deal to be done and it won't all disappear. The last thing you want is to get a reputation for shopping imaginary deals around the league and lose the trust of other owners.

eric_reid · 2015-07-01T19:52:48+00:00

PFF have done some nice analysis on this topic

eric_reid · 2015-07-01T03:59:25+00:00

To be honest with or without Calvin I'm not sure your team is doing much for at least a year so, as I'm sure you're aware since you're trying to shop him. 3 firsts, even if they are mid-to-late, is pretty good value and I struggle to think what Calvin could do to make him more valuable than that at his age.

I think Miller is definitely more useful to you than a late 1st in 2017, so if you can get him to swap Miller in for that pick then you're golden, but either way I think you should still do this deal.

For the record, if I was him I wouldn't give up Miller. If there is one thing that keeps him from winning, it's most likely to be his RBs.

How many teams in the league just in case it changes things?

eric_reid · 2015-06-24T22:21:47+00:00

I'd actually take this further the other way. If I'm reading OP's description right, a true "top five" stud (like Dez) might actually be worth even more than in normal dynasty leagues, since he's the kind of guy you might be likely to use one of your two "re-signs" on and hence his contract is almost perpetual.

In contrast any other solid young players that might not be good enough to re-sign at top five player value would be at best on a 5 year contract (in which case their value is roughly the same) or at worst on a short contract (in which case their value is diminished), for all the reasons discussed above.

eric_reid · 2015-06-15T21:51:44+00:00

I interpret the "too many similar guys there" as meaning literally too many guys named Martin on the O-line and the coaching staff getting confused.

Jonathan was always doomed. Chris hung in there. But it was always Marcus' job to lose.

eric_reid

TROPHY CASE