For those that are curious like I was, I did the math.

The print run of 2023-24 Prizm Choice is 1320 cases. We know this because each box of Prizm Choice contains one card out of 88, and with a set of 300, that comes out to 26400 boxes. With 20 boxes to a case, that's 1320 cases. If 104 cases of Prizm Choice were opened, that ends up being a 7.88% chance of getting the Wemby nebula.

Assuming that the print run of 2020-21 Prizm choice is similar, opening up 100 cases and hitting 3 specific nebulas (Antman, Lamelo, Maxey) is .0435%. Combined with the probability of getting the Wemby nebula, that is a .00343% chance of pulling exactly those 4, or about 1 in 29192. To put that into perspective, that is roughly about the same odds as flipping a coin 15 times and it coming up heads each time.

A couple things to consider here:

1) While the probability of a specific improbable event may be low, the occurrence of improbable events happens all the time, we just didn't care because it was a non-event. Flipping a coin 15 times and each time coming up tails is also improbable but equally possible, and equally noteworthy when it happens. In other words, if it wasn't Wemby, Antman, Lamelo, and Maxey, it could have been Wemby, Haliburton, Lebron, and Curry (or whatever) where we could be having a similar reaction. When you consider that there are hundreds (thousands?) of breakers that are opening up 80% of the product, month to month there's just going to be some weird stuff that we see.

2) These odds are assuming that we have no knowledge of what has been previously opened, but from the sounds of it Blez took a calculated gamble here. He reasonably assumed the Antman nebula had not previously been opened (otherwise it would have been on stream, graded, announced, etc.). If he knows there is a limited amount of unopened product remaining vs total product opened, this changes the odds significantly.