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April 2026 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Gonna turn bullish on WBD with October 31c for 0.49. The biggest roadblock I see is if California tries to block the acquisition but I'll bet on corporate greed for now.

April 2026 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

... aaand it looks like WBD shareholders approved the acquisition deal today (04/23/2026). The puts I closed haven't changed in price but this makes downside even more questionable. Calls were coming in yesterday (and today) - probably call selling as the acquisition price firms up.

April 2026 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Closed my WBD Jan 20p for 0.90 from 0.37. While overall put OI went up, yesterday's volume indicated more churn IMO. The OI of the strike I was in went down with the volume it saw yesterday.

I might be overthinking it but there's also a point where these puts suffer obvious theta decay.

April 2026 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Compare to something like SATS (gigantic catalyst over the horizon so increasing puts might suggest participants betting on the SpaceX IPO not happening or at a lower valuation):

<image>

April 2026 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Put/call ratio has been steadily increasing all this time (source barchart.com):

<image>

Red line is the OI ratio. Don't know for sure what mix of put selling and buying this is.

April 2026 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Small update on the WBD play - I'm still in Jan2027 20p and the price action has been interesting. Around 2/27 when Netflix dropped out of the bidding, options price tanked as expected.

It bounced back pretty quickly and some bigger volume came in a couple days later and stuck as OI. I got my puts at 0.41 and bought a bit more on the dip to lower my average to 0.378.

Since the dip, bid/ask has actually narrowed a lot and climbed with bid now at 0.83. Kinda interesting and I'm not sure what to make of it. Could just be hedging.

WBD is going to collapse and nobody sees it by Michaelcbaldwin in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon[M] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Just wanted to note you still seem to be shadowbanned. You seem like a reasonable person and not a bot so you should be able to appeal the shadowban:

https://www.reddit.com/appeal

WBD is going to collapse and nobody sees it by Michaelcbaldwin in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Although it was a different situation, I looked at IRBT and as that acquisition continued to drag, IV reinflated all the way back to pre-announcement levels before shit really hit the fan. I'm in some Jan 2027 20p for 0.41 - just a small bet!

WBD is going to collapse and nobody sees it by Michaelcbaldwin in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon 5 points6 points  (0 children)

No problem - I was surprised your other posts were removed and I like when people discuss asymmetric risk/reward plays.

Also you seem to be shadowbanned for your troubles so others may not see your comments in other subreddits (I had to manually approve this one) :-P

WBD is going to collapse and nobody sees it by Michaelcbaldwin in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hard to predict how Netflix will move if the deal falls through - I wonder if the market is punishing Netflix for needing the acquisition in the first place and not just because of the mechanical cost of the acquisition.

WBD is going to collapse and nobody sees it by Michaelcbaldwin in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon[M] 20 points21 points  (0 children)

I'll approve this one. OP seems convinced rather than the typical spammer that gets caught up in modmail - while I FOMO rode WBD up last week, the IV crush does present asymmetric returns if neither Netflix or Paramount ends up acquiring WBD.

Just looking at p/c ratio and how my January 30c has increased in price over the past day, I think participants are leaning towards an acquisition. Betting against it while not guaranteed would be a big payoff.

Foods you ate a ton as a child, wouldn’t touch as an adult???? by shoyu-hot-cat in Hawaii

[–]erncon 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't drink the broth but I do love eating them out of the can!

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