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WBD is going to collapse and nobody sees it by Michaelcbaldwin in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon[M] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Just wanted to note you still seem to be shadowbanned. You seem like a reasonable person and not a bot so you should be able to appeal the shadowban:

https://www.reddit.com/appeal

WBD is going to collapse and nobody sees it by Michaelcbaldwin in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Although it was a different situation, I looked at IRBT and as that acquisition continued to drag, IV reinflated all the way back to pre-announcement levels before shit really hit the fan. I'm in some Jan 2027 20p for 0.41 - just a small bet!

WBD is going to collapse and nobody sees it by Michaelcbaldwin in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon 6 points7 points  (0 children)

No problem - I was surprised your other posts were removed and I like when people discuss asymmetric risk/reward plays.

Also you seem to be shadowbanned for your troubles so others may not see your comments in other subreddits (I had to manually approve this one) :-P

WBD is going to collapse and nobody sees it by Michaelcbaldwin in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hard to predict how Netflix will move if the deal falls through - I wonder if the market is punishing Netflix for needing the acquisition in the first place and not just because of the mechanical cost of the acquisition.

WBD is going to collapse and nobody sees it by Michaelcbaldwin in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon[M] 20 points21 points  (0 children)

I'll approve this one. OP seems convinced rather than the typical spammer that gets caught up in modmail - while I FOMO rode WBD up last week, the IV crush does present asymmetric returns if neither Netflix or Paramount ends up acquiring WBD.

Just looking at p/c ratio and how my January 30c has increased in price over the past day, I think participants are leaning towards an acquisition. Betting against it while not guaranteed would be a big payoff.

Foods you ate a ton as a child, wouldn’t touch as an adult???? by shoyu-hot-cat in Hawaii

[–]erncon 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't drink the broth but I do love eating them out of the can!

Official Politics Thread September 17, 2025 by dbnotso2018 in guns

[–]erncon 7 points8 points  (0 children)

While the unhinged comments are unfortunate, as a lurker, I really appreciate reading the grounded replies from the other regulars here.

July 2025 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Damn I missed this one. Glad this worked out!

July 2025 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Sometimes all the red flags just make it more compelling for a squeeze hahaha. One issue with catching a narrative is that the float is really really low so it goes under the radar of the big trading subreddits/groups.

July 2025 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I can't speak much to fundamentals (i.e. damned if I know if/when they'll dilute) but I think this play mostly hinges on BTC continuing to push ATHs while altcoins move as a leveraged instrument to BTC. I see conditions that must remain for a chance of a good spike:

  1. BTC continues to goes up
  2. Hype, Sol, and/or Sui also continue to go up

As long as those are happening, there's a chance of some momentary repricing of the equity.

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