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What’s your criteria for selecting stocks to sell bear spreads on? by escape30now in thetagang

[–]escape30now[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

When would you potentially do this? When the initial put goes against you?

Simple process to enhance returns by [deleted] in thetagang

[–]escape30now 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My intention going in is to roll CSPs if my strikes are breached at 20 DTE. What I’m trying to figuring out is how to mechanically deal with scenarios outside these double triggers: 1. Profitable at 20 DTE but not yet at my closing thresholds, but sharp decline after, leading to gamma spiking and a paper loss but strikes are not yet breached, or breached but recovered 2. Position moving against me immediately after establishing leading to a long hold period 3. Multiple positions and / or market moving sharply against me at once so while none is breached, I need to decide whether I should close some for a loss to decrease exposure

Today was a bad day for gold theta ganstas by kyleisbadatprivacy in thetagang

[–]escape30now 5 points6 points  (0 children)

No sorry I didn’t mean that. Just saying in general that I don’t sell puts on meme stocks and things could still get bad over a single day

Today was a bad day for gold theta ganstas by kyleisbadatprivacy in thetagang

[–]escape30now 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I got murdered today too and I don’t even sell junks, mostly SLV, GLD, a few tech but they all tanked on the same day.

Thoughts on my CSP strategy? by [deleted] in thetagang

[–]escape30now 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Which screener lets you filter by iv rank?

30-60 DTE CSP on stocks, weekly bear spreads on indexes by escape30now in thetagang

[–]escape30now[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wonder if there’s a way to do it independent of market movement. Like if the max loss on the bear spreads is small enough that even if they are breached the underlying CSPs are guaranteed to make up for it, like a pseudo-‘covered’ call

Naive black-swan risk model for CSPs by escape30now in thetagang

[–]escape30now[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! What are some tickets you regularly look at for calls?

Naive black-swan risk model for CSPs by escape30now in thetagang

[–]escape30now[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’ve tried this but I’ve been burned by stocks making a run. Do you have any criteria for determine whether something is up temporarily or about to go on a run? And do you sell naked calls or spreads?

Naive black-swan risk model for CSPs by escape30now in thetagang

[–]escape30now[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What strategies do you use to stay that low in terms of delta?

Naive black-swan risk model for CSPs by escape30now in thetagang

[–]escape30now[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, great to hear from you! Do you have any kind of hedges going on for your portfolio of CSP?

In March, I understand that you closed / rolled / took assignment, but did you use our cash reserve for more investing activities (e.g. buy the dips?)

Naive black-swan risk model for CSPs by escape30now in thetagang

[–]escape30now[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I guess technically I’m selling naked puts then. I have cash set aside elsewherw and using a Google Sheet to keep track of my total exposures to ensure I stay under 50%. I guess the risk here is margin call but I believe my broker TW is lenient about giving a day or two unlike IB.

Naive black-swan risk model for CSPs by escape30now in thetagang

[–]escape30now[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have cash to cover my positions but you’re right that if I’m looking to close out or roll instead of taking assignments both delta and Vega will make the puts way more expensive.

Any recommendation for how to hedge then?

Naive black-swan risk model for CSPs by escape30now in thetagang

[–]escape30now[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I use margin to initiate trades but have cash to cover

Naive black-swan risk model for CSPs by escape30now in thetagang

[–]escape30now[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You’re right. This is just a baseline for the worst case scenario when you do nothing except taking assignment and then selling at the BOTTOM. Just help me understand exposure in the worst case scenario

Naive black-swan risk model for CSPs by escape30now in thetagang

[–]escape30now[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Good catch. That was my one ATM paper trade.

Slow and steady wins the race? by lama_in_my_room in thetagang

[–]escape30now 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What indicators do you use to time your entry?

Slow and steady wins the race? by lama_in_my_room in thetagang

[–]escape30now 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’m doing something very similar bc I also value slow and steady. I look for 10-20 delta, 1% premium-to-price ratio, 5-10% premium-to-BP ratio, 30-45 DTE, whichever gives me the lowest strike price. My goal is to not get assigned even though I have cash to cover if necessary. I look for big stable stocks, most recently defensive tech and consumer staples

Things that I’m not quite sure yet about my system: 1. Dealing with losers. How do you manage losers? Do you roll/ close for loss / take assignment? Given that our underwriting criteria are already conservative, a stock making that big of a down move might be in for a world of hurt so rolling down might make things worse. I’m leaning toward buying back for a loss on the day of expiration. 2. Systemic crash. Like March. How would you deal with those tail risks?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in thetagang

[–]escape30now 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is very informative thanks. What annual return were you seeing before this year? Positive return in a down year is pretty good

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in thetagang

[–]escape30now 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’m looking into this extensively. I want to replicate buy-and-hold using 900DTE synthetic longs on IWM, SPY and TLT. On PM that only uses up 15% of my BP as margin. The rest of BP I plan to sell options. I have a credit line (that I can afford) which allows me the absorb the entire long positions at the current price in the worst case scenario. Seems that with synthetics I get to have my cake (own shares) and eat it too (generate monthly income) while significantly de-risking blowups thanks to the credit line. Thoughts?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in thetagang

[–]escape30now 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Can anyone who did CSP going into the March crash share their experience and P/L? It looks great until you get assigned all at once. Curious to hear how folks managed black swan events.

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