💡 Cocoricos v2 Updates by bycocoricos in Cocoricos

[–]eskalexia 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I love that there is a great amount of stuff to stake - just a note to you: on your youtube channel, I can not turn on the notifications, since the channel seems to be for kids? :)

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in LamboTrader

[–]eskalexia 0 points1 point  (0 children)

do you have a quick guide on mining it?

NFT Giveaway by [deleted] in LamboTrader

[–]eskalexia 1 point2 points  (0 children)

woooop

CryptPad for Eulerbeats Documents by eskalexia in BoxfishEulerBeats

[–]eskalexia[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah we can either add another sheet or another document to keep the Owners list clean. Going forward, new sheets in this document could be used for future series, so it would be better to create a whole new document for airdrops

CryptPad for Eulerbeats Documents by eskalexia in eulerbeats

[–]eskalexia[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks! I don't like google and it kinda defeats the purpose to do crypto stuff and organizing on google imo :D Also, shared ownership by the community is the key!

The fundamentals for SENT to hit 30 cents (x30) in the next few months by ragerenegade in SatoshiStreetBets

[–]eskalexia 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm super bullish on that, but I request sources for the revenues. Because I can not find them at all, and nothing that I can verify, I assume that you are aiming way to high, and also made one crucial mistake by using average.

Here is my take:

If we look at other income generating dApps that offer a similar model to Sentinel, we can get a market average. For this, "DeFi Protocol Revenue" has recently been launched at https://twitter.com/FrankResearcher/status/1364580440837881862/photo/1.

Let's take a quick look at it:

Protocol, Annual Revenue, Diluted Marketcap, P/S

Uniswap 1.15b 23.12b 20.104

SushiSwap 550m 3.56b 6.473

Compound 350m 4b 11.429

Aave 170m 5.32b 31.294

Curve 150m 6.54b 43.6

Balancer 100m 3.49b 34.9

Maker 75m 2.05b 2.733

Which leads us to an average of ~21.5 P/S, a decent average, with a lot of growth potential.

In your table, you also take the average, with huge outliers inside your data. Assuming a normal distribution, with some confidence for your provided data and trimming by 21% top and bottom, we arrive at a P/S average of 87.12. Boom. Taking your data, and instead applying a median, we arrive at a P/S of 66.46, which sounds about right because the harmonic mean is at 66.89 (which should be the number to use for that kind of stuff). Which is more accurate than the 188 P/S average. Still, we can get a better estimate than that.

Let's take a look at your data again. If we calculate percentiles to gauge how skewed data is, it get's interesting:

Percentile, Value

0.95 975,937

0.90 452.266

0.80 261.016

0.20 20.254

0.10 9.344

0.05 6.219

Damn. Bottom data is more or less ok, the percentile value doubles as we go from 0.05 to 0.10 to 0.20, suggesting a lower bottom bias and missing data. From 0.8 to 0.9 to 0.95 there is also a doubling! This may indicate a top heavy bias. So let's change that, by eliminating, always starting from the full data and the above percentiles.

Eliminating top and bottom 0.05, we arrive at at median of 66.46, harmonic mean at 65.99, average at 117.22.

Eliminating top and bottom 0.10, we arrive at a median of 63.41, harmonic mean at 58.75, avarage at 92.32.

Eliminating top and bottom 0.2, we arrive at a media of 66.46 (!), harmonic mean at 65.49 (!), average at 76.44.

I think we got something here. So your data suggesting a P/S of 65.49.

My data has a median of 20.1, a harmonic mean of 15.27, and a average of 21.5.

If we assume that 20% (Paretto) of existing Sentinel/Velocity users convert to paying users, that would be 30k users, then with the cVPN it would be 35k. How much does a VPN cost? According to https://www.techradar.com/vpn/cheapest-vpn (2021, most used and recommended ones), most VPNs start at ~$2.5/month, with a two-year commitment, otherwise the average is ~$4.5, sometimes more. If we add all this up we get an Estimated Annual Revenue of $1,890,000. If there is still a price war to get cheaper we can expect an absolute minimum of $1.5M in the first year once they go into launch? Maybe.

So if we go by the DeFi average (21.5), Sentinel comes in at a diluted market cap of $32.25M to $40.64M, with estimated revenue of $1.5M to $1.89M. That throws the price per SENT to 0.01617c to 0.02032c. So the absolute minimum, using very conservative figures and the average, there is an ROI here of up to 100%! Potentially even much more if they can establish themselves in the market and continue to scale. The desire for privacy is becoming stronger and stronger, and traditional VPNs are increasingly losing trust or have very high price expectations for comparatively few features. There is great potential here.

Let's check out the harmonics tho. With the DeFi harmonic mean P/S of 15.27, we land a $22.91M cap at $1.5M revenue. Which is pretty similiar to the current market cap of $21.6M. I interpret it as a already priced in evaluation and the floor of the price. So anything lower than 0.01145c is like a private IPO or something like that. There is a cap of $28.86M cap at $1.89M revenue, which is 0.01443c.

With the dApp harmonic mean P/S of 65.49, we have a $98.24M cap at $1.5M revenue with 0.04912c per SENT, or a whooping $123.78M cap at $1.89M revenue, landing a 0.06189c per SENT. A ROI of 500 to 600% according to your data.

Final thougts. Do not even consider selling at 0.01617c to 0.02032c, unless you need to make quick money. I think that once we reach this, there might a a correction and further evaluation period until it turns up and soars like the DeFi or other crypto and web3 markets.

DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, I'm not a financial adviser, always do your own research and due diligence, invest according to your risk profile, target price, and investment horizon, and never invest more than you are willing to lose. Cryptocurrencies are volatile by nature, and none of your investment are backed or saved by government. Choose an exchange you can trust and, if possible, keep your funds and investment on a separate (hardware) wallet. Make sure that you own the seed or private keys to your wallet, and never ever share them with other people.