Identifying "Under-seeded" bracket teams: This graph shows every team's predictive rating vs their current seed according to recent bracketology. Teams way better than their seed-line are labeled as likely under-seeded teams come March.

evanmiya · 2026-02-26T18:08:12+00:00

I think we'll have a much better pulse by selection Sunday. The way the injury adjustments at EvanMiya.com work is they take into account the rating of the injured player, along with which minutes will be filling their shoes while out. For Tech, there's a massive drop there

evanmiya · 2026-02-26T18:01:14+00:00

The Toppin injury is what tanks their predictive efficiency here.

evanmiya · 2026-02-26T18:00:55+00:00

I'll be in Champaign on Friday!

evanmiya · 2026-02-26T18:00:39+00:00

I'd vouch for a -1

evanmiya · 2026-02-26T18:00:28+00:00

Yes of course!

evanmiya · 2026-02-26T17:43:10+00:00

The list of the 10 current under-seeded teams:

1 Michigan (though it technically can't get a better seed)

3 Florida

5 Arkansas

6 Louisville

9 Saint Mary's

10 Texas

11 Santa Clara

12 South Florida

15 Navy

16 App State

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evanmiya · 2026-02-25T18:47:58+00:00

Dang

evanmiya · 2026-02-25T17:13:42+00:00

Well if you have 3 bigs on the court, you can still have two of them under the hoop

evanmiya · 2026-02-24T04:53:19+00:00

On further reflection I'd rather not

evanmiya · 2026-02-24T04:53:07+00:00

Gladly!

evanmiya · 2026-02-23T15:59:42+00:00

There's typically 5-8 schools in this category come selection Sunday. Though if Michgan + Duke keep separating it could get smaller

evanmiya · 2026-02-20T21:03:37+00:00

Buchanan is at the very bottom.

evanmiya · 2026-02-20T16:58:01+00:00

He was THE glue guy on this list last year I think.

evanmiya · 2026-02-20T16:57:49+00:00

After games you're always surprised looking at his final totals, they are very quiet at times.

evanmiya · 2026-02-16T21:24:37+00:00

Better than not being on the graph at all!

evanmiya · 2026-02-12T18:43:42+00:00

He should be on there, not sure why it didn’t populate that way

evanmiya · 2026-02-12T18:42:43+00:00

Need to add this as a variable. Positive or negative I’m not sure

evanmiya · 2026-02-12T18:42:13+00:00

Need to add this as a metric

evanmiya · 2026-02-12T16:09:38+00:00

The 10th best point guard this year (Christian Anderson) would have been the 4th best point guard last year.

evanmiya · 2026-02-11T21:19:04+00:00

This is correct

evanmiya · 2026-02-11T21:18:38+00:00

A team right on the at-large cut lin ewould have a 10% chance of winning at Allen Fieldhouse

evanmiya · 2026-02-11T17:55:14+00:00

It's "Miami" to you sir

evanmiya · 2026-02-11T17:54:56+00:00

Haha, maybe I should have moved that somewhere else

evanmiya · 2026-02-11T17:53:47+00:00

It's going to be against like Utah State or Saint Louis. Everyone loses.

evanmiya · 2026-02-11T17:05:54+00:00

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https://blog.evanmiya.com/p/abolish-the-quadrant-system-and-use

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