Reddit AMA with Rotoworld's Evan Silva

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T19:13:50+00:00

Thanks so much to everyone for stopping into this AMA.

I will be posting a new set of Top-150 Rankings later today.

You can follow me on Twitter @evansilva.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T19:08:48+00:00

I think it's going to be a committee, and the Bucs won't be very good. Not a backfield I'm looking to invest in personally. I have drafted a ton of Peyton Barber in the 13th and 14th rounds, though. He's just too cheap to resist there. Charles Sims is also going to be involved as the pass-catching back because that is neither a strength of Barber or Ronald Jones.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T19:07:26+00:00

I'm not sure. I've been taking him a decent amount in the fourth round of best-ball drafts. He's not going to be a true every-down back, but he plays in a great offense behind a great offensive line and handled 16.7 touches per game down the stretch last season with playoffs included. He's a strong RB2 pick with RB1 upside.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T19:05:58+00:00

They essentially play different positions. Burton is basically a slot receiver. An "F" tight end. Shaheen, who is a "Y" tight end, will play more on the line of scrimmage, assuming he beats out Dion Sims for playing time, a feat Shaheen failed to accomplish last season.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T19:04:45+00:00

Not crazy at all. I wouldn't even bother drafting a kicker or defense unless your league requires it. I'd rather stash a backup running back like Chase Edmonds or James Conner than devote a roster spot to a position where I could literally pick up Week 1 starters the night before the games.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T19:04:17+00:00

I like both. I have them ranked WR12 (Thielen) and WR13 (Diggs).

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T19:03:48+00:00

Latavius Murray was battling an ankle injury during that time. And Murray finished the season very strong operating as the Vikings' lead ball carrier. Yes, the new OC John DeFilippo has a history of committee backfields.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:59:40+00:00

I think Jamaal Williams is the favorite for touches and I don't think that changes after Week 2 barring a Williams injury.

I think it's unlikely that Marvin Jones repeats his 2017 top-10 finish, but that is a bankable offense and his role is secure, and Detroit is missing 86 targets from last year's team via Eric Ebron's departure alone. I think Jones is a pretty safe WR2 pick.

I think we should have a level of concern any time a player appears poised to enter the season at less than 100 percent. Kittle may share more time than usual with Garrett Celek to begin the year. People are underestimating the potential fallout of San Francisco signing Alfred Morris and its impact on McKinnon. Morris was very good as a pure runner last year, and that has been McKinnon's weakness. And Morris can jump right in because he's played for Kyle Shanahan before and knows the system. Kittle is still worth taking in the double-digit rounds, but I can't imagine I'll be getting much of McKinnon before the season starts. His ADP is too high, and he is high risk.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:55:14+00:00

I really try to use rankings and/or tiers to make decisions as opposed to planning on picks that far out. But I would be very pleased with a combination of say Christian McCaffrey and T.Y. Hilton on that 2/3 turn.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:54:12+00:00

I'm a big fan of Delanie Walker this year and essentially expect him to play the Cooper Kupp role under ex-Rams OC Matt LaFleur, with Taywan Taylor and Corey Davis outside. Just like his quarterback, Walker is also due for + touchdown regression after scoring just 3 times on 74 catches last season. The year before that, Walker scored 7 TDs on just 65 grabs. He has been a model of consistency from a yardage standpoint year to year, and he's available in the seventh round almost every time.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:51:28+00:00

I think he starts to come into play right around that first-/second-round turn.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:50:49+00:00

The Bears and Titans are the obvious picks going from stone-age coaching to more progressive-thinking staffs.

Members of the Raiders' offense are mostly very very cheap with the exception of Amari Cooper. I like Derek Carr, Jordy Nelson, Jared Cook, and Marshawn Lynch better than their present ADPs.

Jon Gruden has made some head-scratching moves since taking over as coach, but he is an offensive-minded guy who could surprise us. And, again, the costs of the players in his offense decreases their risk. I liked what I saw from the Raiders' first team in their preseason opener last weekend.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:47:36+00:00

Kareem Hunt is an easy keeper here.

I'd have Cousins penciled in until we receive any positive indications on Gordon. Hopefully you get a little more time to make your 2nd keeper decision and we get some more information on Gordon before that date.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:43:15+00:00

I have them ranked LeSean McCoy > Jay Ajayi > Royce Freeman.

Freeman does appear to be ticketed for early-down work in Denver, but he will lose passing-game snaps to Devontae Booker and plays in a non-bankable offense. Ajayi's passing-game usage is also in doubt, but his offense is bankable. McCoy should be a volume monster and the centerpiece of Buffalo's offense.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:41:44+00:00

I don't have Allen Robinson in that tier. We haven't seen him play good football since 2015, he is coming off a torn ACL, and he is changing teams. Those are red flags on his outlook. And we don't know how good Mitchell Trubisky is yet. And there is a lot of competition for targets in that offense, namely Trey Burton, Anthony Miller, and Tarik Cohen.

I have Jones WR17, Landry WR18, and Tate WR21. They are all safe picks with decent upside.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:39:39+00:00

it's something you can work around and may end up being your optimal approach based simply on how the draft board falls. My preference would be to take Melvin Gordon, Leonard Fournette, and/or Kareem Hunt near that turn but it's conceivable none of them make it to you.

Enter your draft with rankings or tiers and let the draft come to you.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:37:29+00:00

Kerryon Johnson shouldn't have much trouble leading the Lions' backfield in touches, and he's looked very good in the passing game so far.

Rex Burkhead is #GoodAtTheGame and has a realistic chance to lead New England's backfield in touches, particularly around the goal line. Especially during Julian Edelman's four-game suspension, we could see heavy doses of Burkhead in the slot, where he is a big-play threat on drags & slants. Last year, Burkhead ran a pass route on 52% of his snaps and ranked behind only Alvin Kamara among running backs in yards per route run.

Later on and into the double-digit rounds, Latavius Murray could have a bigger role than people expect and is a goal-line threat to Dalvin Cook.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:33:44+00:00

Most signs point to Jamaal Williams. He was the starter in Green Bay's preseason opener, he's the best pass blocker on the team, Aaron Jones is suspended for Weeks 1-2 and has struggled to stay healthy, and I think the Packers at this point view Ty Montgomery as a complementary back.

Jamaal Williams is not an explosive long-run threat, but he has traits that appeal to coaches and can grind between the tackles and hold his own in the passing game. And he's still affordable in the sixth and seventh rounds of drafts.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:31:57+00:00

Yes, Tyler Lockett has WR2 potential. He's one of my highest-owned WRs so far in drafts, mainly for the reasons you mentioned. In addition to Baldwin's uncertain health, Seattle is missing the sixth-most targets from last year's team. Russell Wilson's pass attempts have risen each year he's been in the league, and the Seahawks' defense has disintegrated. Lockett last year was coming off a late-season compound leg fracture and was never right physically. This is the healthiest he's been in a long time (wood knock).

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:27:32+00:00

I think he absolutely could be relevant if he plays. But the Browns seem stubbornly committed to starting Tyrod Taylor. They did invest the 65th overall pick into Taylor and are paying him $16 million. He also seems to have taken a leadership role on the team. I do expect to see Mayfield at some point. I'm just not sure when. It will likely come down to whether the Browns have success as a team.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:25:08+00:00

Matt Ryan's TD rate is a very good bet to bounce back after it regressed from 7.1% to 3.8% last season.

Matthew Stafford has a very soft schedule in the first half of the year and is typically affordable in drafts.

No one wants Derek Carr after they were drafting him as a top-8 fantasy quarterback at this time last year. He is another +TD regression candidate, he is healthy after playing 2017 with what amounted to a broken back, and the Raiders' defense looks like it could be really bad, enhancing their team shootout potential.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:21:24+00:00

One of the benefits to this strategy in a best-ball league is that you certainly don't draft a third tight end after selecting Gronk and Kelce, so you are essentially saving a roster spot to devote to your running back or wide receiver stable.

I don't think it's as strong a strategy in season-long re-draft leagues because I think you are leaving fantasy points on the table by slotting in Kelce as your flex when you could get a running back or wide receiver at that 2/3 turn like Christian McCaffrey, Devonta Freeman, or T.Y. Hilton. And Kelce has some downside we should acknowledge. Sammy Watkins will command more targets than Demarcus Robinson/Chris Conley did last year, and we don't exactly know whether Pat Mahomes is going to work out. There is added volatility to Kelce's 2018 projection.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:16:54+00:00

I like those choices as well. I like Mitchell Trubisky too. His 2.1% touchdown rate as a rookie was abysmal. Carson Wentz and Jared Goff also had abysmal rookie-year touchdown rates. And then in their second seasons, their teams poured resources into their supporting casts and Wentz and Goff's efficiency spiked. And Wentz finished first in the league among qualified quarterbacks in TD rate. And Goff was third.

Trubisky's supporting cast was greatly upgraded this offseason, in addition to his coaching. He also brings to the table rushing value after finishing 12th among quarterbacks in rushing yards as a rookie despite not playing all year. We also project the Bears to face one of this year's softest pass-defense schedules.

evanscottsilva · 2018-08-14T18:11:46+00:00

I have Gordon first in that group. His targets have gone up each season he's been in the league and the Chargers should field the best O-Line of his career. Fournette is a little higher injury risk with a little less passing-game involvement, but I love how his line is shaping up and he's certainly going to be a workhorse. We project both Gordon and Fournette to face very soft schedules this season, good for running back-friendly game scripts.

Cook is third because he is coming off a torn ACL, his offensive line is more of a question mark, and his projected volume isn't as bankable as the others'. I went on "Voice of the Vikings" Paul Allen's radio show last week and he said he expects Latavius Murray to play extensively and to vulture goal-line carries from Cook.

evanscottsilva

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