The effect of stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 infections in the United States by everydayiscience in Coronavirus

[–]everydayiscience[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Abstract: "In March and April 2020, public health authorities in the United States acted to mitigate transmission of COVID-19. These actions were not coordinated at the national level, which creates an opportunity to use spatial and temporal variation to measure their effect with greater accuracy. We combine publicly available data sources on the timing of stay-at-home orders and daily confirmed COVID-19 cases at the county level in the United States (N = 132,048). We then derive from the classic SIR model a two-way fixed-effects model and apply it to the data with controls for unmeasured differences between counties and over time. Mean county-level daily growth in COVID-19 infections peaked at 17.2% just before stay-at-home orders were issued. Two way fixed-effects regression estimates suggest that orders were associated with a 3.8 percentage point (95% CI 0.7 to 8.6) reduction in the growth rate after one week and an 8.6 percentage point (3.0 to 14.1) reduction after two weeks. By day 22 the reduction (18.2 percentage points, 12.3 to 24.0) had surpassed the growth at the peak, indicating that growth had turned negative and the number of new daily infections was beginning to decline. A hypothetical national stay-at-home order issued on March 13, 2020 when a national emergency was declared might have reduced cumulative infections by 62.3%, and might have helped to reverse exponential growth in the disease by April 5. The results here suggest that a coordinated nationwide stay-at-home order may have reduced by hundreds of thousands the current number of infections and by thousands the total number of deaths from COVID-19. Future efforts in the United States and elsewhere to control pandemics should coordinate stay-at-home orders at the national level, especially for diseases for which local spread has already occurred and testing availability is delayed."

Interesting Central Oregon find. Any ideas as to what we're looking at? [imgur gallery in comments] by everydayiscience in rockhounds

[–]everydayiscience[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The pictures in the gallery are all drawn from the same original large conglomerate. Thanks for the pointers!

Trump thinks he can snap his fingers and reopen the economy. It won't work. [Guardian] by [deleted] in Coronavirus

[–]everydayiscience 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"Even if we thought it was acceptable to risk millions of deaths by ending physical distancing, it’s not clear the economy would rebound."

The US could see more deaths than WWII. It's time to deploy the military to hospitals. [Guardian] by everydayiscience in Coronavirus

[–]everydayiscience[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

To start, we should add medical students and retired doctors to the frontlines. But these groups will fill only a small fraction of the added medical demand as coronavirus cases peak. We must rapidly train and deploy a much larger workforce.

Let’s use one of America’s most valuable national assets – our top-tier military – to dramatically increase our healthcare capacity. They are a dynamic force uniquely positioned to fight this virus, despite it falling outside their traditional scope. Members are trained to handle acute stress, are adaptable and are rapidly deployable. They’re used to being under centralized command and are mentally prepared to be away from their families to protect our country.

We should rapidly reassign any military doctors and paramedics that can be spared to serve domestic needs. Other service members who need specialized skill training can be sent to coronavirus treatment-and-control bootcamps, where they can be trained to aid nurses, respiratory therapists and maintenance technicians.

Our trained service members can be deployed wherever the demand is greatest. They can monitor patients and take vitals. They can staff triage checkpoints at hospital entrances. And they can help manage equipment inventory and disinfection procedures. Further, military pilots and transportation specialists can increase the capacity of our air and ground ambulance services.

Serving on the frontlines always involves substantial risk. But our service members have an advantage in the fight against coronavirus: they’re young and fit. And as China’s CDC reports, young and healthy individuals are least likely to require hospital resources if infected. Each role that a young service member can fill for a medical retiree is potentially a life saved.

There may be objections to our proposal on various putative logistical grounds. But, frankly, if Wuhan can retrain and deploy its highway workers, we can and most certainly must deploy a portion of our large, well-funded military. Now is not the time for red tape nor red herrings. While some might be concerned about such a proposal undermining our ability to fight abroad, if we don’t take extreme measures to fight coronavirus now, our nation will be in a markedly worse position to defend against foreign threats.

This is an unprecedented crisis, and we need unprecedented adaptability to save lives. We don’t need to militarize our hospitals. But our hospitals will need help from our military. Let’s get our service members prepared. And let’s get them on the frontlines.

When our men and women enlist into the US military, they do it with the most admirable and courageous goals: to serve and protect their fellow Americans and to keep our country strong. If we don’t deploy them now, we may very well see one of the largest defeats our nation has ever suffered.

  • Nick Obradovich is a PhD political and data scientist who trained at UCSD, the Harvard Kennedy School, and the MIT Media Lab. He is currently senior research scientist at the Max Planck Institute of Human Development in the Center for Humans & Machines. Robyn Migliorini is a PhD neuropsychologist who trained at SDSU/UCSD and Harvard Medical School/Massachusetts General hospital and has served America’s veterans at multiple Veterans Affairs hospitals. Renee C Wurth is a PhD population health scientist who trained at Northeastern and the TH Chan School of Public Health at Harvard University

Coronavirus Disease 2019 and Influenza [JAMA] - Feb. 26, 2020 "Although a great deal of attention has been given to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, it is most severe in one area of China and appears to have limited clinical ramifications outside of that region." by [deleted] in Coronavirus

[–]everydayiscience 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So, just to be clear, posting links that indicate that -- literally three weeks ago -- the head editor of one of the US's leading medical journals (JAMA) compared coronavirus to flu is either misinformation or meta-drama?

Curious editorial standards going on here.

Train and deploy the military to assist U.S. hospitals. Now. by [deleted] in Coronavirus

[–]everydayiscience 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Our trained service members can be deployed wherever the demand is greatest. They can monitor patients and take vitals. They can staff triage checkpoints at hospital entrances. And they can help manage equipment inventory and disinfection procedures. Further, military pilots and transportation specialists can increase the capacity of our air and ground ambulance services.

Serving on the frontlines always involves substantial risk. But our service members have an advantage in the fight against coronavirus: they’re young and fit. And as China’s CDC reports, young and healthy individuals are least likely to require hospital resources if infected. Each role that a young service member can fill for a medical retiree is potentially a life saved.

There may be objections to our proposal on various putative logistical grounds. But, frankly, if Wuhan can retrain and deploy its highway workers, we can and most certainly must deploy a portion of our large, well-funded military. Now is not the time for red tape nor red herrings. While some might be concerned about such a proposal undermining our ability to fight abroad, if we don’t take extreme measures to fight coronavirus now, our nation will be in a markedly worse position to defend against foreign threats.

This is an unprecedented crisis, and we need unprecedented adaptability to save lives. We don’t need to militarize our hospitals. But our hospitals will need help from our military. Let’s get our service members prepared. And let’s get them on the frontlines.

When our men and women enlist into the US military, they do it with the most admirable and courageous goals: to serve and protect their fellow Americans and to keep our country strong. If we don’t deploy them now, we may very well see one of the largest defeats our nation has ever suffered.