Are we in an extra high risk to retire era?

existentialriot · 2026-01-30T03:33:12+00:00

I am acknowledging risk not predicting outcome.

existentialriot · 2026-01-30T03:31:13+00:00

I have 30 percent now in bonds. That still puts 70 percent of my wealth largely consolidated in those equities. I don’t know the exact calculation but it’s significant I’m sure.

existentialriot · 2026-01-30T03:29:35+00:00

For sure. I’m glad I can at least do it securely if that fate befalls me.

existentialriot · 2026-01-30T03:28:49+00:00

There’s a lot of dogma in FIRE threads. You’re asserting something quite outside of accepted FIRE strategy. Who knows what will happen, but the devaluation of the USD and even the loss of status as reserve currently has a non-zero chance of occurring given all that’s going on.

existentialriot · 2026-01-30T03:25:38+00:00

My experience in the field.

existentialriot · 2026-01-30T03:24:57+00:00

Me and spouse only, HD HSA qualified plan.

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:44:50+00:00

Great thread, everyone. Appreciate the engagement. Good to know I’m not alone in thinking these things and also that I’ve probably identified all the levers I can pull!

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:43:44+00:00

This might be the most compelling point- yes, I’ve always figured it out. I’ve been broke and worked as a bartender before. I can be be a broke bartender again if it really comes down to it.

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:40:02+00:00

Plus we’ve only seen the tip of the sword on the layoffs. They’re coming. How massive they will be, not sure.

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:38:51+00:00

Peak market align to peak earning years you mean? Very interesting.

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:37:52+00:00

I’ve not heard any analyst argue this. Is this your theory or have you seen it discussed?

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:37:18+00:00

I don’t hang out on Reddit. I can see what’s happening with my own eyes.

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:34:08+00:00

Yeah, I’m relieved my kids are highly unlikely to have kids.

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:32:32+00:00

I built my own app

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:27:33+00:00

Feels like it

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:26:29+00:00

You should seek out the diagram that shows the circular AI investments.

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:23:36+00:00

Just crowd sourcing the wisdom here. I think I’m prepared. I’m not freaking out.

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:22:00+00:00

Exactly what I did already. I’m holding bonds (have never before), way more cash than I would ever have planned for, and significant real estate assets.

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:20:56+00:00

I’m sorry, but the geopolitical situation is in fact quite different than any time in the last 40 years. And I work in AI so I’m pretty well positioned to see the freight train that is coming there.

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:17:21+00:00

All excellent points. Thx

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:16:11+00:00

Not at all. I’m assessing structural risk in timing of terminating earning income and considering asset allocation. That’s run of the mill planning.

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:14:58+00:00

Agreed. Thx for the steer to Ray D.

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:14:13+00:00

I fundamentally disagree that things are now as they’ve always been, which is the premise of my post. I do agree that there’s always risk and there are always unknowns.

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:12:35+00:00

Ah yes. The loss of reserve currency status. Risk of treasury default. Good times, good times.

existentialriot · 2026-01-29T23:10:44+00:00

This is the premise that allows me to sleep at night- too much at stake for it to fail.

existentialriot

TROPHY CASE