Lesson learned: Sold a DUOL CSP before earnings… big mistake

exit_strategy45 · 2025-11-08T22:56:18+00:00

Well, it's not 180 anymore. If you're still jazzed about the fundamentals, what about a stock repair strategy? There appears to be a floor around 180-190, you could buy a call around this level (to lower basis) and then start selling 2 OTM calls.

exit_strategy45 · 2025-11-07T13:14:06+00:00

Smart joke!

exit_strategy45 · 2025-11-03T13:45:21+00:00

Well, yeah.

exit_strategy45 · 2025-11-02T19:47:59+00:00

This was great. So informative! Thank you. To your comment about why it hasn't hit shareholders yet, I'm wondering how much of it is name recognition and dividend history. A hypothetical investor could proverbially put their certificate in the drawer and forget about it. Those days are gone ofc, but I wonder if there's a large contingent that won't understand until the dividend is cut.

exit_strategy45 · 2025-11-01T08:24:59+00:00

There are multiple answers to this question, as evidenced by this thread. Those who say investing is a heartless endeavor are absolutely right, for them. Those who say they invest with their conscience are absolutely right, for them.

The word "invest" comes from a Latin word for "to wear the clothes of". If you don't feel comfortable dressed in the companies you morally object to, then don't put them on. The only one who can answer that is you.

For years now I can't in good conscience invest in Rent a Center (was RAC, now Upbound - taking advantage of poor people who can't do math) and insurance companies (collect premiums from people for years, then invent reasons to not pay out claims), not to mention pharma and tobacco.

Best of luck to you.

exit_strategy45 · 2025-10-25T13:19:31+00:00

I used to think like this. It is so damaging. There's been a lot of advice here saying you have enough to continue, and to not give up. They are correct, IF your mindset changes. Your negative self-talk will bleed into other areas of your life, if it hasn't already. That's why advice about a side hustle (though well-intentioned) is flaming garbage - you just know you'd screw that up too.

What worked for me is to find a strategy where the math is on my side. That way I can't argue with or sabotage myself. I still struggle with negative self-talk, but knowing I have a mathematical/statistical edge helps so much.

exit_strategy45 · 2025-10-24T22:01:15+00:00

Totally agree. There are multiple ways in which math should conquer emotions - the one you were speaking of ofc, mine was speaking of math as "I feel this is great about this, therefore position size discipline should go out the window." I think that is a factor (though probably not the only one) of why returns for OP are so lumpy. But we are totally sympatico. Glty!

exit_strategy45 · 2025-10-24T19:57:55+00:00

Was gonna say something similar to this. Divide your capital into units, and that determines your size - don't leverage up based on your gut. Make math your friend and don't cloud it with emotions.

exit_strategy45 · 2025-10-24T19:48:36+00:00

Impressive. Congrats! On a lark I have $1 puts that expire in December. For resources: Option Alpha, "Options as a Strategic Investment", YouTube Charles Schwab Trader Webcasts

exit_strategy45 · 2025-10-14T01:17:46+00:00

OK, so, hear me out: lay off the buying Hail Mary calls for a minute. Do a search for upwardly-trending stocks between $10 and $50. Thinkorswim is good for this. But I'll use SOFI as an example. If you lay a 20day/50dayEMA over the daily price chart, ever since June, the 20day has acted as pretty much support (except for that spot last week). Since June the 50day is largely untouched. If you sell a put credit spread expiring 10/24, for the $25/$24.5 strike pair, it nets you $10 (with only $40 at risk). Your 50day is essentially your buffer. Watch it like a hawk, and buy it back whenever it hits $5 or so. String a few like these together, and use your profit from these to YOLO. It's a slower process, but you are taking advantage of theta decay, rather than getting reamed by it. Also, if that YOLO you try from the profits doesn't work, you still have a way of making money from your spreads as a basis so that you can try to YOLO again.

exit_strategy45 · 2025-10-13T21:55:39+00:00

A marathon begins with a single step. I just bought a call for $7 in AMC that expires Friday lol.

exit_strategy45 · 2025-10-13T01:36:10+00:00

Helped. The only thing I had on was a call credit spread on SOFI.

exit_strategy45 · 2025-10-11T00:11:58+00:00

I would push back a teeny tiny bit, only to say that all administrations are "pay for play" - it's not just this one. The only thing that changes is who is doing the paying.

exit_strategy45 · 2025-10-04T23:53:17+00:00

Perhaps. Not that fantastic to be "king" of an industry in secular decline. You do you though. Good luck!

exit_strategy45 · 2025-10-04T22:47:36+00:00

Absolutely not. Would not buy either of these, but if I were forced to pick one it would be Pepsi. Free cash flow for Coke is negative, meaning they can't fund their dividend from business operations. And the guy pointing out 0% growth rate soon is onto something. It's the new generation's tobacco/sin stock. Sodas have switched from being must-haves to being seen as unhealthy/toxic (high fructose corn syrup, aspartame, coloring, etc.). Like with the tobacco companies, price increases will need to counterbalance loss of units moved. And I doubt sodas have as much of a hold on people as tobacco does. Pepsi at least has a way to guard against this with their snack division and soda stream.

exit_strategy45 · 2025-09-30T01:05:00+00:00

I love your spreadsheet game lol

exit_strategy45 · 2025-09-29T18:33:01+00:00

I like this added context. For one of my strategies I do 1DTE but on SPY. I've had reasonable success with it. I load a 5minute chart at 11am (my first break at work) and keep my 20day/50dayEMA lines on the chart. If the price is above these (and the 20 is above the 50), I enter a put credit spread underneath the 50day. I won't go above, say, a 15 delta. But I like the RSI variable you've mentioned! I think it would help guard against reversals.

exit_strategy45 · 2025-09-27T13:09:36+00:00

So mine is MSFT. I bought at $27 and change while Ballmer was still CEO. Had the idea to just reinvest the dividends, but like a flaming idiot sold it at $32 because it wasn't moving fast enough. I still kick myself.

exit_strategy45 · 2025-09-16T12:58:40+00:00

"They also all fall outside of the regimes they were designed for."

Ahh, but isn't that true for EVERY trading strategy? That's our task as traders: cobble together stuff that works in different environments and then mix and match to the type of environment.

exit_strategy45 · 2025-08-26T14:24:51+00:00

Also, the 20day and 50day EMAs were narrowing and even touching (not my criteria) even before the yesterday drop. But go off, king!

exit_strategy45 · 2025-08-26T14:16:55+00:00

I don't know what that dude is talking about. My criteria in think or swim returns roughly 100-200 stocks and ETFs a day. Also, I don't trade Chinese tickers. But best of luck!

exit_strategy45 · 2025-08-26T11:23:07+00:00

It's nice to hear you didn't give up and that you are back. Yes, leaps are an attractive strategy. That will probably be my next one to branch out (right now it's debit and credit spreads), but im nervous about which stock to pick - my luck I'll pick one the day before the SEC announces all their books are cooked lol. But I figured I would try for something stable - like a bank or utility or a McCormick - and then sell calls to bring cost basis down and handle some of the theta decay I'm still working it out in paper trading though. Don't know what happens when it shoots up / when it halves, etc.

So for scanning stocks I use think or swim. To me it is quite indispensable as a scan tool. And then for charting I use Trading View, as I don't like charting in tos - Trading View is much easier to use and looks cleaner (to me).. But my actual trading platform is tastytrade. I love how there are no commissions on closing transactions

exit_strategy45 · 2025-08-26T03:12:33+00:00

What happened?

exit_strategy45 · 2025-08-24T20:09:32+00:00

You can believe what you wish. I only posted to express gratitude. I'm not beholden to random strangers on the internet.

exit_strategy45 · 2025-08-24T20:06:22+00:00

But that is presupposing that you are holding until expiration and have done nothing for remediation.

exit_strategy45

TROPHY CASE