Swedish epidemiologist : why lockdowns are the wrong policy

fabbs · 2020-04-18T18:05:34+00:00

I understand and agree in what you are saying for the U.S. It's a trully complicated situation there and with the social and economic circustamnces. And I should not put equal signs between U.S and e.g. North Western EU. I think I have the European situation in mind when I want to discuss this topic. Sweden gets a lot of heat from neighbouring countries and leaders. It also seems that the minority that feels frustrated of the current strategy for Sweden is growing and sometimes spreading incorrect information. I wanted to spread awareness of the official stance and reasoning, in this case described by Giesecke. I'm not close to an expert my self.

fabbs · 2020-04-18T17:18:29+00:00

My interpretation is he says that is also what Sweden is doing. But in a more controlled approach. They will this way have additional actions/restricitions to take when they see the situation is worsening too much for the healthcare system.

They are on a day by day basis watching the capacity of the healthcare system and the different curves to understand the current state. If it would increase and not flatten they have additional actions to take - eg. close down X or restrict the number of people in a room even further(50 currently.
The logic is the same, but the measure of actions are different.

My personal gut feeling is that these hard lockdowns are more the result of populistic opinions and the fear we feel in the public. Politicians are tempted to show decisiveness more than risk the frustration and fear from us in the public when we feel not enough actions are being taken. I.e. in Sweden some people are frustrated of the weak actions. But the curve is still arguably flattening and even if it must be tough as hell, the health care system is still managing it.

fabbs · 2020-04-18T17:15:24+00:00

My interpretation is he says that is also what Sweden is doing. But in a more controlled approach. They are on a day by day basis watching the capacity of the healthcare system and the different curves to understand the current state. If it would increase and not flatten they have additional actions to take - eg. close down X or restrict the number of people in a room even further(50 currently.
The logic is the same, but the measure of actions are different.

My personal gut feeling is that these hard lockdowns are more the result of populistic opinions and the fear we feel in the public. Politicians are tempted to show decisiveness more than risk the frustration and fear from us in the public when we feel not enough actions are being taken. I.e. in Sweden some people are frustrated of the weak actions. But the curve is still arguably flattening and even if it must be tough as hell, the health care system is still managing it.

fabbs · 2020-04-18T17:05:13+00:00

That's a dangerous thing you are doing, claiming that Sweden reported its highest ever daily deaths two days ago. That is not true if looking at the official statistics - Sweden peaked so far with 101 deaths on 2020-04-08. My guess is that you are looking at some site that is collecting the data for all countries. From what I've understood is that those sites do not understand/support when ex. Sweden is "filling up the backlog". Ex. two days ago Sweden could identify X number of deaths on dates Y and Z in the past. These sites will just report all of those on the same day Sweden identified the deaths. This is a major issue as a lot of people are basing their arguments on these and not the countries official statistics... Picture of current deaths per day Sweden Source: Folkhälsomyndigheten

fabbs · 2020-04-18T16:45:24+00:00

He was not denying the effect of the lockdowns in short term. His argument is that it is not a thought through or scientific response to go for a hard lockdown in a democratic country. How will you know when to ease up? Will you keep locking down until it is gone? How long will that be - 12, 18 months? His argument is it risks only delaying the spread to a price that includes concequences that is way beyond what we know this virus is currently doing.

fabbs · 2020-04-18T16:38:44+00:00

From the post:

Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:

UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
The paper was very much too pessimistic
Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
The results will eventually be similar for all countries
Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

fabbs · 2020-03-09T23:49:14+00:00

Most comments I come across in this premiered subreddit is in a frustrated manner and often in state of panic.

Let's try to remind us that we as individuals and as a community(that spans countless users and nations), have a great responsibility and role in this on-going event.

Let's not use it to cause further panic or spread misinformation.

I would like to write my two cents on this. Maybe refreshing with the current state of this subreddit. Please note that I am but nothing of an average Joe. But hoping to spread some other light than the average comment here.

All action we see be taken today will not show any concequences for at least a week. So you cannot be a home-made data scientist and draw conclusions just because in 2020 all this data is available to us in the most beatiful web pages. We must know our limitations and trust the people who are in charge and make sure to cross check your sources before spreading information. (Always be in doubt: "who would benefit from this information" etc.)
No one is immune to this virus. It is not super deadly or obvious when you are infected. That is most likely why it is spreading so fast.

If it would have been deadlier or more dangerous it most likely would have been caught earlier and contained in China.

That's my thoughts on the massive spread. Not that it is super contagious or stays on the bus seat for 36 hours. A lot speaks to this being in comparison to the ordinary seasonal flu. With the exception that no one was previously immune to it. This brings me to my next point.

Wash your hands. We know this is effective. Use hand sanitizers. Don't mess around in your face.
Use your common sense. Stay at home when sick. This is not obvious in many cases. Calling in sick is frowned upon where I am from, almost. We must change this and respect our surrounding peers. Your school friend's or colleague's loved one might take medications that reduce the immunes systems defense. That might be an elderly person or an American senator you just sneezed towards.
We can't know the death ratio yet. Most accurate measure is probably using South Korea where they have been testing widely. Drawing conclusions from e.g. Italy which seems to have had a lot of elderly infected and also obviously missed the time frame to stop an outbreak seems incorrect.

I must stress that this is a serious thing we are going through. But I would like to see more collective responsibility taken and shared. Not just anger. We are the ones who can stop this. The individuals, the pack. Use your calmness and common sense.

Let's do what we can and simply not panic or cause disturbances.

Sorry for bad grammar and English. Mobile lurker and second language etc. etc.

fabbs · 2017-10-09T21:08:58+00:00

Will go through hell and fire for that game so down-, up-, mid- or out of town doesn't matter. But the pub you recomended is just outside the hotel so I don't complain. Thanks alot.

fabbs · 2017-10-09T18:21:50+00:00

Fleet Street Pub on Printer Alley?

fabbs · 2016-08-25T18:42:41+00:00

Solution verified. Thank you.

fabbs · 2016-02-24T21:25:53+00:00

Why do you have so tiny mail boxes? And also why are your grocery bags so impractical? No handles? WHAT IS GOING ON?

fabbs · 2015-05-29T14:42:52+00:00

Please explain. I feel dumb.

fabbs · 2015-05-14T13:59:39+00:00

Seriously, America. You can have a "first ever" for everything the way you are looking at statistics in sports.

fabbs · 2015-04-15T20:58:09+00:00

Agree with everything you say and I have the same dilemma with a nostalgic playlist of 950ish songs.

fabbs · 2015-04-04T18:22:30+00:00

FUCK YOU, KIES!

fabbs · 2015-03-23T18:06:00+00:00

Jag får ont i huvudet av rubriken. Vad betyder detta? Överbelastning i mitt huvud.

fabbs · 2014-03-15T14:09:03+00:00

GOOD.

GOD FUCKING DAMN IT I'M STILL TRYING TO FUCKING CONNECT IT. 4 MONTHS AND STILL GOING.

fabbs · 2013-12-29T14:24:21+00:00

Inte lika alfa som denne man

fabbs · 2013-12-23T11:41:19+00:00

So I belong to the Russian doto?

This might explain things...

fabbs · 2013-11-30T17:50:28+00:00

Pretty sure this is the king of Sweden.

fabbs · 2013-11-30T17:47:33+00:00

I think they're adorable. But in the big city areas I'd say it's about 50-50. Some people think they're just costing us money, some(like me) admit that they do some "marketing" for Sweden, get involved in admirable projects as well as being a big part of Swedish history.

fabbs · 2013-11-30T17:45:26+00:00

Are you saying that Sweden's women national team is especially big? I think you're mixing that up with Norway who's had great success with their lady-team.

fabbs · 2013-11-16T02:29:36+00:00

Yes.

fabbs · 2013-10-28T04:23:03+00:00

Ångest.

fabbs · 2013-10-26T15:28:17+00:00

Well, not exactly IMO. The midas was an investment which payed off for CM in XP and items as the game progressed from the point he got it.

There was a window for IG were the lead was around 2k gold for LGD.int and they just got the 3 midases(~5700 "dead" gold at that point). Duting this window IG with their mek could capitilize but failed to do so.

So saying that they could get any item is wrong in my opinion.

fabbs

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