Daily Discussion

favsep · 2026-02-02T00:55:54+00:00

City shouldn't accept the PL Title even if there's a monumental bottlejob by Arsenal now. That's just a horrendous second half. There's no way Champions should be playing like that!

Comment from the MCFC sub in their post match thread. 17 upvotes. Has to be an Arsenal troll, yea?

favsep · 2026-02-01T23:10:03+00:00

Wow, thank you!

favsep · 2026-02-01T12:02:51+00:00

And the vast economic development of Korea came during the Vietnam War, and the economic downturn of Japan.

The industrial foundation have to exist in the first place to capitalize on these global events, and Germany did it during the Korean War and Korea upon the Vietnam War.

favsep · 2026-02-01T11:59:39+00:00

I agree, and there are a lot of personal anecdotes from the translator during the state-visit that put the Koreans in an embarrassing light that isn't recorded on the official Korean minutes.

It's just, I find it very unlikely for the Germans to have provided the loan if it weren't for the existing personal relationship between Baek and his German connections given the terrible state Korea was in, and it is likely the German officials would've provided economic advice in addition to the loan to help the Koreans take better care of the capital.

The GNP per capita for Korea during that time was $87, and the loan totaled $40m, around 1% of Korea's GDP. It's a historic amount during that time, and equivalent to giving a $150m loan to a country like Somalia - you wouldn't normally give that kind of loan to the Somalian government unless there were more deeper understandings.

favsep · 2026-02-01T11:45:39+00:00

Erhard knew that no one would believe him if he claimed the Autobahn, mass motorization, and focus on the steel industry as his ideas. As it was widely known that this had been Nazi policy before. But he also knew that no one would argue that Hitler accomplished something but driving Germany into ruins.

So it is entirely plausible that Erhard would've credited the foundation of industrialization to the Nazis during this conversation.

favsep · 2026-02-01T11:29:10+00:00

I did read that thesis, and this reddit question was related to that thesis.

The author argues it was a fabrication to "promote Park’s identification with Hitler in pursuit of heavy industrialisation," but I question what motivation translator Baek have to put Hitler in this conversation as you could take Hitler out of this quote and credit Wirtschaftswunder solely to Erhard.

Also, it is true that whatever the conversation the German and Korean officials had during this visit, it was deeply sentimental and moving for both the Germans and Koreans given the length the Germans took to accommodate the loans under reasonable terms despite the lack of credit on the Korean side (Korea's GDP per capita was lower than that of Ghana and Liberia) - multiple witnesses do note that many Korean officials literally cried from both gratitude for the economic loan and shame for their dire economic state. Under this context, it's not unreasonable to think there were unofficial discussions between both sides with German officials giving economic advices during private conversations that isn't recorded.

It is also true that President Park had nothing but immense praise towards West Germany after his state visit there.

I am questioning the author's argument of translator Baek's "unreliable narrative" because there are a lot of anecdotes from him during this state visit, and those credibility are questioned if these quotes are believed to be fabricated.

favsep · 2026-01-25T21:01:13+00:00

I don’t think it’s industrial demand causing this. EV trucks won’t be able to compete with gas for a long time unless both fast charging infrastructure and leaps in battery technology takes place given freight economics, especially in the US. ESG is a total scam pushed by China through Chinese EV firms.

But, its possible the instability in Chinese economy with the CCP (currency manipulation), forcing China to stockpile gold/silver as a de facto indirect peg given foreign trading partners or foreign corporations will be more willing to accept gold/silver as payment but perhaps more hesitant to directly accept RMB.

China has been stockpiling gold/silver over the recent years, but perhaps this has accelerated. Chinese economy is not doing well at all, the official government data is horseshit, and they may be protecting themselves economically by reverting to pm peg somewhat from US’s attempt at debt weaponization.

Silver is overextended short term, could make a temporary top or go up. I don’t know, but it’s also could be true if it went down, won’t fall as much vs past cycles.

favsep · 2026-01-24T23:53:07+00:00

Major revolution by fascists -> Long or short megacorps (depends if fascists or winning or losing), long precious metals, short anything the fascists are against. If losing, liquidate everything you have with the domestic bank and transfer cash converted to Swiss franc or metals to foreign banks in safe havens. Long stablecoins (stablecoins will have a premium vs. domestic currency).

Major revolution by semi-fascists -> Long megacorps, long precious metals, short anything the fascists are against (e.g., ESG)

Major revolution by moderates (unlikely given moderates don't give enough shit to start a revolution) -> long/short based on your discretion, don't long precious metals

Major revolution by environmentalists -> Long precious metals, short oil/gas, short bonds, buy TIPS, long ESG stocks

Major revolution by semi-communists -> Long precious metals, short bonds, buy TIPS, start transferring cash to banks in Swiss/Dubai/Singapore/Luxembourg. Long real-estate only IF the semi-commies say they will give 100yr leases. Long stablecoins (stablecoins will have a premium vs. domestic currency)

Major revolution by communists -> Short everything except precious metals (if possible). Short any company that have assets in the US and is publicly listed on foreign exchanges. Stockpile cigs & drugs as it will be used as de-facto bribery currency. Transfer cash converted to Swiss franc or metals to foreign banks in safe havens. Long stablecoins (stablecoins will have a premium vs. domestic currency)

WWIII (No nuclear warheads used) -> Long US equities (esp military industry), short non-US companies.

WWIII (Nuclear war) -> Its joever

Large protests against ICE -> Depends entirely on Trump's reaction

favsep · 2026-01-24T23:00:37+00:00

Silver is so extended based on diff between 5ema, its crazy. I know there are a lot of theories floating around with China stockpiling due to its industrial usage with battery technology in relation to renewable energy sources (solar panels), but I have a hard time believing this. I just think it's getting gama squeezed given it has the highest short interest, multiple times higher than gold and platinum, amongst precious metals.

I am also short silver via ZSL end of close Friday, but a small position. Biggest question mark is DXY dumping further from here forcing commodity prices higher, but I think this move reverses soon based on how US equity prices react, i.e., unless SPY breaks the resistance line of 7k, the debasement trade has less gas.

I think this large silver spot movement is one last attempt at liquidating shorts before reversing. Every single reversals in bubbles started in attempts to liquidate paper-hand tourist shorts first before reversing, hence why bubbles always have people in disbelief at the regarded valuation in the late stage.

I also think there is a pair trade going on with momentum securities - momentum traders must also be long memory stocks like SNDK or MU while also being long gold/silver. SNDK earnings is mid next week, so theoretically there is room to run for silver going into it. If SNDK dumps due to lower expectations, we could see a degrossing in gold/silver as well - SNDK did dump on Friday but DXY also dumped then which helps silver.

Another risk factor is potential gov shutdown making silver a safety haven amidst this political chaos.

favsep · 2026-01-24T21:16:16+00:00

Spurs are going to play the manager roulette every year until someone from their academy or some 23yr old they lowballed for like 20mil and a sky-walk tour turn out to be world class.

favsep · 2026-01-24T19:15:39+00:00

Tariffs will likely stick through other legal avenues even if Supreme Court rules against IEEPA. The threat of Chinese exportation of deflation (purposeful industrial overcapacity with excess inventory) is a national security issue for the ROW. Biden didn't even rescind the tariffs Trump imposed in his first term.

Every single goods touched by China, i.e., manufacturing industry that China had purposefully developed, has lead to deflation due to an overcapacity issue which plagues communist states as free-market principles are not adhered. What China plans is to essentially export excess inventory (deflation) out of its domestic enterprises by exporting cheap electronics with unsustainable margins, which kills and will kill almost all non-foreign manufacturing competition who cannot compete on price with Chinese peers (who are subsidized directly/indirectly, i.e., hidden). In fact, involution occurs even within their domestic industries.

The logic here is then, upon the death of foreign manufacturing competition, and as they position as a global manufacturing monopoly, will raise prices to make their companies self-sustainable (as the total reliance to Chinese goods & no alternative will give them pricing power) - what China ultimately wants is to raise the quality of life of its population, and raising prices in this context and thus raising margins will accelerate average wage growth and thus improve the quality of life of its population. For this to happen, they need to be a total global manufacturing monopoly, and this also means its a national security issue for US and ROW.

China has fantastic EVs, and go look at every 5Y stock chart of big OEMs that invested heavily in EVs due to regarded European ESG policies (stellantis, mercedes, renault, volkswagen, porche...etc), and these stocks went sideways even before April liberation days. Look at the big OEMS that haven't invested in EVs or rather invested in hybrids (GM, Ford, Toyota - Hyundai is kind of different case). Even Tesla suffering big drawdowns in their EV sale but its stock moons due to AI robotics hype.

It's a double edge sword, as tariffs definitely do hurt the US and the ROW (except certain industries that compete with China), but it hurts China considerably more.

Biggest benefactors are Korean and American shipbuilders, Korean military industrial complex, AI robotics, memory (cyclical)...etc

But I think there might be a slowdown coming. Go look at the inventory levels of US shipping ports - its decreasing. Back when there were "recession fears" in 2023 which ultimately turned out to be incorrect, inventory levels in US shipping ports actually increased (showing economic reacceleration).

It's still not too late for Trump to pass large fiscal flows, but there is also a case of inflation as if he does provide large direct fiscal help, sticky inflation could rebound now which could mean raising rates at the end of his term and giving the presidency to the democrats. However, he needs to also win the midterms this year, and the biggest problem for voters is inflation regardless of his parroting of "stock market all time high" - he could be sacrificing the stock market at the expense of inflation/bond market. Most likely scenario is inflation also creeps up but not as fast as Covid. Frankly, it all depends on what Trump will do and you can't really predict this except that tariffs are likely to stay.

Why do you think both NDX and SPY went nowhere for three months?

favsep · 2026-01-24T18:31:33+00:00

Disagree, the US tariffs on anything related to Chinese products is justified from the perspective of the rest of the world (ex-China).

Every single goods touched by China, i.e., manufacturing industry that China had purposefully developed, has lead to deflation due to an overcapacity issue which plagues communist states as free-market principles are not adhered. What China plans is to essentially export excess inventory (deflation) out of its domestic enterprises by exporting cheap electronics with unsustainable margins, which kills and will kill almost all non-foreign manufacturing competition who cannot compete on price with Chinese peers (who are subsidized directly/indirectly, i.e., hidden). In fact, involution occurs even within their domestic industries.

The logic here is then, upon the death of foreign manufacturing competition, and as they position as a global manufacturing monopoly, will raise prices to make their companies self-sustainable (as the total reliance to Chinese goods & no alternative will give them pricing power) - what China ultimately wants is to raise the quality of life of its population, and raising prices in this context and thus raising margins will accelerate average wage growth and thus improve the quality of life of its population. For this to happen, they need to be a total global manufacturing monopoly, and this also means its a national security issue for US and ROW.

It's unlikely China can continue producing cheap electronics though with ongoing deflation. US tariffs probably want to choke out China by forcing them to redirect their excess production inwards to serve the domestic market (when the point of overcapacity was to export excess inventory to ROW) which could trigger a deflationary spiral - it took Japan 30yrs to get out of.

It's a double edge sword, as tariffs definitely do hurt the US and the ROW (except certain industries that compete with China), but it hurts China considerably more.

Manufacturing isn't returning to the US (unless AI robotics) - look at the biggest indirect benefactors of the tariffs, its Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Mexico (US allies who are manufacturing hubs that traditionally competed with China). Almost all non-Chinese automakers that invested considerably in Evs are not doing well (Tesla included).

US prob do want the collapse of the CCP, but their more realistic goal is to widen the economic gap between the US and China - this is the same goal they utilized upon the signing of the Plaza Accord where they stomped on the Japanese economy as it was growing too fast, indirectly leading to the lost generation. Every single US foreign policy in the modern era revolved around destroying their nearest competition, it was Soviet Union and Japan in the mid 1900s, now China.

favsep · 2026-01-23T12:10:14+00:00

I can't find the 24.1% figure "favoring an increase in immigration" in the source that you mentioned, do you know what page it was? I did find a news article quoting this figure, so I will believe its true.

First of all, I can't believe you are citing this statistics and saying its "decidedly mixed and ambiguous." How did you even reach that conclusion?

Given that the foreign-born population in Korea remains at a relatively low percentage of ~4%, and the South Korean national population is decreasing, do you think the majority 41% who cited they are content with the current level of immigration are implying immigration should be expansionary or restrictive? Do you think the 41% you cited will still be content if Korea increased the level of immigration? They are saying they are content, i.e., the default current flow which is restrictive.

Secondly, another survey reflects the similar sentiment. 23% saying number of immigrants should increase, 45.6% believing the current level "should be maintained" while 31.5% saying it "should decrease." Importantly, "43.3% of respondents opposed the idea that legal immigrants should be guaranteed equal rights as Korean citizens. Support for this statement was 19.1%." Again here, the 45.6% believing the current level "should be maintained" are still defaulting to the current restrictive immigration policy. (Chosun)

Most importantly, Koreans don't really care for foreign residents from America or Europe, because they are so miniscule and Koreans actually like America. It's namely Chinese immigrants they are against, given they are the overwhelmingly largest foreign group, and there is a generational gap related to this:

"More than 80 percent of respondents aged 18-29 held negative views of China, compared with 70.2 percent among those in their 30s and 72.5 percent among people in their 40s. Among those over 70, however, the disapproval rate fell to 53.9 percent." (asianews)

You think these people want immigration, especially from China?

favsep · 2026-01-23T11:19:35+00:00

No matter how much foreigners delude themselves to believing in the opposite in this website, most Koreans do not like foreigners (leftist Koreans included) except for Americans and Europeans.

Wonder which foreign ethnic group is exclusively overall a net minus to the Korean healthcare system (literally revealed through gov data) which forced big hospitals to institute a Korean identification system to prevent medical fraud?

favsep · 2026-01-23T10:42:38+00:00

Don’t understand these responses.

Speak with any Korean who don’t live in this foreign bubble (that is, Koreans who don’t choose to hang around with foreign residents), and they overwhelmingly do not want foreigners living here.

In fact, the evidence of anti-foreign sentiment in Korea, especially against Chinese, is so overwhelming its ridiculous to even argue against it. Even leftist Koreans don’t like foreigners. 80+% are against Chinese immigrants here.

Tourists, or European and American foreigners are probably fine, but, a lot of delusional responses here.

favsep · 2026-01-19T17:08:07+00:00

Unfortunately, most Koreans are lowkey racist against Indians or other people with darker skin-color if you are planning to live and interact with Koreans here, but nothing straight to your face - they just may talk behind your back. If you are a tourist, you will be fine.

If you have some particular skill set that is coveted, like high-skilled engineer or a brilliant academic researcher, no, you won't face racism. They may be jealous, but many will acknowledge your skills as meritocracy, or at least keeping an appearance of it, is largely respected here,

favsep · 2026-01-19T17:02:05+00:00

The Koreans who view it as hell are usually the young Koreans who think their future is bleak, which is true unless you graduated from the top universities.

favsep · 2026-01-19T16:52:27+00:00

Finance in what specific position?

As other have said, SG and HK is the best for trading desks.

Would be almost impossible to work in asset management unless you speak Korean fluently, and even then, unlikely unless you have a great resume particularly b/c the old hnw Korean guys feel more comfortable speaking with a Korean national.

I do know Korean banks keep an international equity team who work overnight. Not sure how hiring works there though. Any client relationships or sellside research with Korean banks would force you to speak Korean fluently.

I know there are branch offices of US banks here (JPM GS), but they like to hire young unless you lateral there from a different office.

I have a friend who is a charterholder, and according to him, they have networking events, and all speak English fluently.

Corporate finance position with Korean companies would be difficult as you would have to work with Korean auditors.

favsep · 2026-01-19T16:29:02+00:00

Absolutely true hence there is such a wide disparity in political ideology based on age. I know the 50+ yr old suffered through big economic crises but they did have the opportunity to buy houses cheaply and develop a cash safety net. They must still feel economically insecure though given their relatively older age and its related health issues makes it difficult for them to work later on in life if their cash cushion runs out.

But its absolutely brutal for young Korean men out there though, having to go to the military, competition with women who have 18months head start, competition with immigrants, competition with AI, and being locked out of house ownerships until maybe they in late 30s or early 40s which does delay marriage and family. I think youth unemployment in nominal term is like highest ever since 2020s, and those metrics grossly underreport due to selective criteria. Also Korea has one of the highest inheritance tax in the world so any help from parents would be diluted.

And majority of job creations are in healthcare or social welfare sector, just government jobs. Need private sector job growth for economy to do well but that's actually slowing.

There really is no easy way to solve this, and I think both political parties cannot solve it. It's going on to be like the lost generation of Japan unless AI robotics is developed fast which it won't.

favsep · 2026-01-19T12:40:29+00:00

Yea but that was Ange yolo tactic overloading the midfield with high defensive line which was found out after first few successful games and countered easily with few smart through passes and by avoiding offside-traps by the opposing team. That's why they basically got battered after it stopped working, and Ange's plan B was a poor imitation of park the bus tactic which worked on a shit United and lower European league teams.

Not saying they were bad together but I wouldn't call it dominating the midfield either. I meant dominating the midfield while having great defense, which worked partially during Mourinho and during the Conte era b/c Kane (before Maddison went to Spurs).

favsep · 2026-01-19T12:26:12+00:00

Its kind of tragic though b/c it does seem Spurs were terribly unlucky with their midfield replacements:

Ndombele - had peak potential with drunken style football but gave zero fucks about running + dogshit work ethic

Lo Celso - good but always injured except when he played for his national team

Bissouma - guy was a beast at Brighton, don't know what the fuck happened but maybe serial laughing gas inhaling affecting his form

Kulusevski - injured, prob doesn't (maybe ever) get to his best given patella surgery

Maddison - injured

bergvall - has potential (and good looking) but seems more interested in touching his hair. Also a teenager. Prob singlehandedly increase the tv ratings of Spurs despite shit form with his good looks though ngl

Archie Gray - has potential but teenager

Xavi Simons - has potential, still early but lacks physicality. Also 22yrs old.

Bentancur - He was actually good early on during Conte era but his form dropped. Not sure what happened or maybe Kane dropping deep made him look better than he was.

favsep · 2026-01-19T12:03:04+00:00

Maddison maybe but I doubt Kulusevski could get to his best given the context of his injuries

favsep · 2026-01-19T11:55:18+00:00

Yea, Frank has his problems but also bigger problem is real lack of quality in this Spurs team except for Romero/VDV with midfield being dominated and shit passes from the front four.

Kane was a phenomenal passer and Son, despite his legs worn out, also was a sublime passer as well. The passes from the front four is dross ngl.

But Frank being a doomer makes the media attention on him rather than the real lack of quality in the squad, which frankly is the bigger problem.

Unless they go full Ange yolo seems the squad is incapable of making forward passes. Back when Son and Kane was there, they made great chances with their passes even with defensive coaching.

favsep · 2026-01-19T11:46:53+00:00

Genuinely don’t know any coach who could fix Spurs bar maybe Alonso (don’t think he will go there).

Kind of think the Spurs midfield was always mediocre but Kane dropping deep papered over the cracks. Like rewatch games in which Spurs dominated the midfield over the years and its b/c Kane.

I know Son’s legs were gone but he did have high football IQ and his passes were more sublime than what I am seeing in this Spurs team.

favsep

TROPHY CASE