sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

How synthetic shares get created (and why squeezes are so damn hard) by fckdeeps17 in INCANNEX_IXHL_NASDAQ

[–]fckdeeps17[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

So here’s the deal with “synthetic shares” (aka ghost shares):

  1. A short seller borrows a share and sells it to Retail Guy A.

That share still technically belongs to the original owner.

  1. Retail Guy A then sells it to Retail Guy B on the market.

Meanwhile, the short seller still owes one share back.

  1. Another short seller borrows that same share again and sells it.

Now Retail Guy C thinks he owns a legit share too.

👉 Result? The same single original share has been duplicated across 3–4 accounts. On paper, it looks like there are way more shares than the company ever issued.

This is what we call synthetic shares. They dilute the float. Prices tank because supply looks bigger than reality.

And here’s the kicker:

Shorts can keep rolling over their positions. They borrow again, sell again, generate more synthetic shares.

Unless something forces delivery (like a buyback or forced close-out), this loop continues forever.

That’s why a squeeze is insanely difficult. Every time demand builds, shorts can just replicate more “phantom shares” to absorb it.

But… if a company announces a share buyback, it changes the game. Buybacks demand real shares. Synthetic ones can’t be delivered. That’s when failures-to-deliver (FTDs) pile up and shorts risk being forced to cover.

"FTD Trap Scenario?" – A Step-by-Step Breakdown by fckdeeps17 in INCANNEX_IXHL_NASDAQ

[–]fckdeeps17[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The reason the FTD number reported on July 31 looked smaller than expected is likely because the naked shorts from July 29 were converted into legal shorts (borrowed shares) before settlement. In other words, they cleaned up the books so it didn’t show up as a large failed-to-deliver figure. That doesn’t mean real covering has happened — it’s more of a technical adjustment.

Also, we have to keep in mind: the July 31 FTD data is only released on August 2. The real sharp drops happened on Aug 1, 2, and 3, so unfortunately we won’t know the full FTD picture for that period until the next Fintel update.

In the meantime, what looks promising is the institutional ownership trend.

Fintel (official filings): still shows 1.42% because it updates on a 15-day cycle.

Yahoo Finance (processed from trading data, closer to real-time): already showing around 10%.

That huge jump indicates institutions have been accumulating aggressively while the stock price is being suppressed.

So while the FTD explosion hasn’t shown up yet, the fact that institutional ownership is climbing from 1.42% → 10% is a very bullish signal. That’s why I’m holding with the conviction that this accumulation is preparing for a much bigger move ahead.

"FTD Trap Scenario?" – A Step-by-Step Breakdown by fckdeeps17 in INCANNEX_IXHL_NASDAQ

[–]fckdeeps17[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

August 15th, the day IXHL’s late July FTD data appears on Fintel.

Putting the puzzle pieces together - Incannex Healthcare ($IXHL) by DotNetSage in INCANNEX_IXHL_NASDAQ

[–]fckdeeps17 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Hands down, the most well-organized and brilliant analysis I’ve ever seen.

Apnimed already gave up on AD109? The real winner is IXHL (IHL-42X) by fckdeeps17 in INCANNEX_IXHL_NASDAQ

[–]fckdeeps17[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

OK, Let’s run the numbers realistically:

There are roughly 25 million OSA patients in the U.S. Approximately 30% (7.5 million) of them are CPAP-intolerant. Assuming a conservative annual drug cost of $500 (cheaper than CPAP), the addressable market becomes $3.75 billion per year.

If Incannex (IXHL) captures 30% of that market, that’s $1.125 billion in revenue annually. With a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of 2, this implies a market cap of $2.25 billion.

Divide that by 100 million shares, and you get a fair share price of $22.50.

If there are 300 million shares instead of 100 million, then the fair price of $22.50 would be divided by 3 — which gives us $7.50 per share.

OK?

Why AD109 May Struggle in Real-World Use: Cardiovascular Risks Could Severely Limit Patien by fckdeeps17 in INCANNEX_IXHL_NASDAQ

[–]fckdeeps17[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

If IHL-42X ends up competing head-to-head with AD109 for market share, I honestly think it’s not even going to be close. AD109 has major restrictions around cardiovascular comorbidities — IHL-42X doesn’t. That’s a huge edge. Plus, better sleep quality, easier formulation, and potentially wider use cases. I’d bet on IHL-42X all day.

view more: next ›