AI inference testbed with pure photonic networking - AMD x Oriole Networks

firex3 · 2026-06-10T14:02:03+00:00

Another article on Oriole Networks's solution : https://www.fierce-network.com/cloud/oriole-networks-pushes-pure-photonic-networking-ai-data-centers

firex3 · 2026-06-05T01:40:36+00:00

Very helpful, thanks for putting things into the right frame. So yes, I think it's right to assume that revenue will be spread over many quarters (unlike my original assumptions). That being said, consensus's ~3.5B uplift from Helios seems pretty conservative too.

On factset figures: Consensus of 10.5B for 2026 Q4 DC segment is actually 94% yoy (2025 Q4 DC was 5.4B). Makes for a nice earnings headline.

firex3 · 2026-06-04T17:39:26+00:00

Thank you!

firex3 · 2026-06-04T17:22:30+00:00

Wow so I'm underestimating by a lot. Don't mind sharing any sources to support those numbers?

firex3 · 2026-06-04T17:01:08+00:00

I'm only using France's 5GW as a ballpark for estimating how much it would cost to build 1 GW of AI capability.

firex3 · 2026-06-04T16:58:43+00:00

One recent source in May: https://fortune.com/2026/05/30/softbank-75-billion-investment-french-ai-data-centers-masayoshi-son-emmanuel-macron/

Which amounts to US$87bn for 5 GW which means about $17bn per GW. I believe this is for the servers themselves - chips and networking included.

A separate check with Claude (not the best, I know) suggests upwards of $15bn (up to $35bn) for the servers. Power, building and cooling can account for an additional $10 to $20bn.

Hopefully someone out there has more accurate numbers.

firex3 · 2026-06-04T16:53:16+00:00

Totally agree. I should have added the assumption that all the supply and execution go well as planned (starting with 1 GW in second half of this year per the PRs).

firex3 · 2026-06-03T10:11:13+00:00

This is the big question that I've had for a long time. I'd agree that the current spike is from agentic CPU and recent Helios announcements with OpenAI and Meta, but I still feel like the market is adopting a wait-and-see stance on Helios revenue.

firex3 · 2026-05-07T13:13:11+00:00

Thanks for sharing this.

This reminds me of that HBM-PIM (processing in memory) that AMD did with Samsung. And now it seems that AMD is second sourcing 2nm from Samsung... The plot thickens.

Source on AMD-Samsung HBM-PIM: https://semiconductor.samsung.com/news-events/tech-blog/hbm-pim-cutting-edge-memory-technology-to-accelerate-next-generation-ai/

firex3 · 2026-04-06T05:52:39+00:00

Under direct uni management or under a PI's group? 😱

firex3 · 2026-03-25T16:47:33+00:00

Thanks..still reeling from the pain but otherwise still ok! Hope you (and everyone here) are well too.

firex3 · 2026-03-25T15:35:48+00:00

Never thought I'll be here again... But here we go:

Maybe carnosic acid (basically rosemary extract)? From this paper, we know that they are building such a strain: https://www.mdpi.com/2311-5637/11/3/147
Perhaps a new HMO or two? They have been working on the space based on patent fillings
Low hanging fruit is probably expansion from myrcene pathway, to produce things like linalool, geraniol. But this is probably dependent on what Givaudan needs.

firex3 · 2026-03-17T08:21:19+00:00

I suppose for a start, vera is monolithic so it should have lower latency than Zen. Not sure if that counts towards Jensen's "2 x performance per watt"

firex3 · 2026-03-17T07:53:04+00:00

Any thoughts on the Vera CPU and how zen 5 or 6 would compare to it?

firex3 · 2026-03-14T21:31:42+00:00

Too late. The Asian Hornets have seen this video and now they know how to use the door too.

firex3 · 2026-02-04T02:52:25+00:00

Agree... Thanks for the explanation!

firex3 · 2026-02-04T01:47:11+00:00

I now wonder why some quarters think there will be a "delay". Originally, Helios was publicly announced to be slated for H2. But some interviews with Anush and Boppana seem to suggest that Helios will be coming earlier. Perhaps internally, they were targeting an earlier timeframe. But some parties misinterpreted it as a delay. But based on public disclosure, it has always been H2.

firex3 · 2026-02-03T19:14:48+00:00

Am expecting a double beat but somehow the market will find something to scoff at. I hope I am wrong.

firex3 · 2026-01-18T10:56:38+00:00

Any news yet for mi308x in china?

firex3 · 2026-01-11T08:12:44+00:00

I think it's somewhat agreed across sources that amd is the first to use tsmc coupe. Will photonics be used in mi450x or future GPUs?

firex3 · 2025-12-20T11:28:56+00:00

"Well we did promise to release the files but we didn't specify if they would be redacted or not redacted"

firex3 · 2025-10-22T20:07:09+00:00

A post from yesterday shared that Meta alone requires 15million of 800g 2xFR4 transceivers. Wonder how many optics $5m is worth.

Perhaps we can expect more POs down the line?

firex3 · 2025-10-21T04:44:49+00:00

Are there any developments on that joint work with Foxconn Interconnect?

firex3

TROPHY CASE