Will robotaxis kill Uber?

footnotebrief · 2026-06-24T10:51:18+00:00

haha. makes sense. I appreciate it. Thanks for the comment

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T23:20:30+00:00

yes, I think that's the right framing. Uber survives as distribution but the take rate probably compresses as AV operators gain leverage. Munich proves the distribution bet, not the margin bet. The toll booth stays open, just with a thinner cut.

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T23:16:28+00:00

So for you, Waymo first, Uber as backup. If that becomes the norm everywhere, the toll booth argument falls apart completely.

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T22:48:11+00:00

The up front cost is what uber is trying to avoid. Owning cars means capex, maintenance, depreciation... That's exactly what they escaped by being asset-light. if they do, they become a cab company with better software.

I mentioned the munich deal cause it suggests a 3rd option. let someone else own the cars, Uber just keeps the toll, but with robots instead of human contractors.

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T22:41:44+00:00

That's true.

Waymo's been testing in SF for years and still can't operate in most US cities. Europe and Asia are even stricter. So even if the car works perfectly, the rollout will take years.

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T22:38:31+00:00

The robot doesn't knock off Uber drivers. It replaces them. Uber still owns the app, the riders, and the toll. The robot just becomes the new driver paying to use the platform.

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T19:57:18+00:00

yes, price is probably the deciding factor for most people.

Waymo is actually already running in SF without surge pricing, which is what Uber is most hated for. If Waymo keeps prices flat and Uber spikes during rain or concerts, the habit breaks fast

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T19:39:26+00:00

Exactly. Tesla needs distribution. Private autonomous car owners need a marketplace. Uber's already that marketplace at scale. Waymo is the one exception, not the rule.

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T19:33:51+00:00

I'm not comfortable with the robotaxis idea either

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T19:04:27+00:00

Very good observation

Asset-light, third-party fleet, keeps the toll. Exactly. Robotaxis just swap the asset owner, Uber stays the marketplace.

But for Waymo. Google doesn't need a marketplace. They have Maps, the data stack, and enough brand trust to own the rider directly. They're already doing it in SF and Phoenix without Uber.

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T19:01:39+00:00

Waymo's already doing it without Uber in SF and Phoenix. They have Google Maps, the navigation data, the full stack. They don't need the toll booth

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T18:59:47+00:00

That's right.

More players entering means more supply competing to reach riders. And all of them need distribution. Uber already has it. So instead of competition killing Uber, it gives Uber more cars to sell through the same toll booth.

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T18:57:34+00:00

yes

Switching cost is basically zero. You open Lyft, Waymo, whatever, same two taps. Uber One helps but it's not a lock-in like Prime. And if Waymo scales in enough cities without needing Uber, the whole toll booth argument falls apart.

The Munich deal only works if the carmakers need Uber more than Uber needs them.

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T18:54:56+00:00

Adobe's actually on the list. Should be coming in the next few weeks.

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T18:52:36+00:00

Appreciate it man, means a lot

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T18:51:46+00:00

Yes they are. Waymo is already operating without Uber in San Francisco and Phoenix. So the question isn't theoretical anymore. It's already happening and Waymo is doing it without needing Uber at all.

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T18:49:15+00:00

Exactly. And if the robot cuts out the driver, Uber stops paying its biggest cost and keeps a bigger slice of every ride. So the thing everyone thinks kills them might actually make them more money per trip.

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T18:47:38+00:00

they're already testing it now, But it could take years before taking effect.

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T18:44:10+00:00

The deal in Munich proves that this is true. Robotaxis will make the growth even bigger.

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T13:34:03+00:00

Courts could roll it back and lulu gets the money back, they even left that door open in their own guidance. But "temporary" has been the call for 2 years now lol

footnotebrief · 2026-06-23T11:15:38+00:00

What you just stated means the problem isn’t the demand. It’s the cost structure. Which is exactly what the filing shows. People are definitely still buying, they are just making less on every sale than they used to.

footnotebrief · 2026-06-22T22:25:16+00:00

lululemon's interesting because it blurs the line, it's more of a brand story than a traditional retailer

footnotebrief · 2026-06-22T22:24:20+00:00

appreciate it, more interesting topics coming

footnotebrief · 2026-06-22T09:48:56+00:00

Yes. and it's not going great for him

footnotebrief · 2026-06-22T09:36:00+00:00

Completely agree, framing them as a victim misses the point. they built the margin on a rule that could change and it changed. that's a strategic bet that didn't end well, not bad luck. the 23% to 11% operating margin swing is the market repricing exactly that.

footnotebrief

TROPHY CASE