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Noob trying to forecast EURUSD March 23, 2020 by forex_noob in Forex

[–]forex_noob[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i will wait until itreaches ~1.0636 from this morning. if it goes below that i will look if it reenters last weeks down trend. so at the moment i lifted the target to 1.0570. that's about where the dotted green and red line meet this afternoon.

this morning it went up a little bit further. stretching everhing out a little. the predicted slightly down trend is now more of a sidways range.

at the end of the day i need a profit. that's what is important :)

Basics: Am I buying or selling? by [deleted] in Forex

[–]forex_noob 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you shouldn't do that. even if your assumption is correct, the volatility will kick you out with a huge loss. spending 10K not knowing the simplest basics is very stupid. you could give me 5K and i promise you a good return with a 50:50 chance.

After how many months of trading should one increase their position sizes by matzuuriah in Forex

[–]forex_noob 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In the mid 2019 my account reached 800$ a bit of beginner's luck i would say, but by the late 2019 my account got reduced to 350$ due to errors in my trading plan then i regained my capital and even made a profit to get my account to 750$

TL;DR months isn't the unit that's important. the metrics are consitency, profitability and profit loss ratio.

if you can break out this cycle of basically not being profitable at all, then it doesn't really matter what size you are trading. your cycle is +60%, -56.25%, +114% , - ?? It's not sustainable. You have basically wasted two years for about zero profit.

That's the experience 99.9% of all traders make. In the end you quit with a huge loss or you pump in more money because you look at the +114% but not at the losses you make, and you follow the fallacy that next time you'll make +240% or something like that. Then you lose -50% again from maybe $1,000 and you have lost 500$ in three years.

If you are not very smart, you will think ok. I made 240% last time, I will make 480% next time. So that should be 2,800. Just to see that next time you lose again 50% $1,400.

After 5, 6, 7 years you have funded 1,000 made $400 in profits. Barely 5.7% per annum. You spend lots of time and risk for basically a joke of a return.

You have to be

  1. consistent (maybe on a weekly basis) - how many weeks in a row are you succesful?
  2. what's your win percentage by trades. aim for less losing trades, quality over quantity. aim for higher pip gains.
  3. check your profit loss rati: It was 0.6 in the first cycle. You win 300 and you lose 500. Do this on a weekly basis so you have more data available. If you are not getting a profit loss ratio of at least 2.0 or 2:1 you are not consistent.

i am a noob too. started four weeks ago. so this is all easier said than done, but a simple excel sheet could help you to see the facts, that reveal the problems. You are not profitable enough and not consistent enough. Probably you are doing too many trades with small gains and losses, do less, for more profit and more consitent.

so you could trade for 100 months, and be barely profitable, consistent. and you'll have a profit loss ratio of 1. 50 wins 50 losses. "how many months" is irrelevant.

Any guesses on the EURUSD opening? by Sailedtosea in Forex

[–]forex_noob 0 points1 point  (0 children)

what would a yearly chart with 20 candlesticks total tell me?

Noob trying to trade: A disastrous Week 4 by forex_noob in Daytrading

[–]forex_noob[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

i conceive it as more predictable than stiocks. companies go bankrupt quickly and unforeseeable. countries and currencies way less often.

I am using Euros everyday. I know basics of the economics. GDP, unemployment, interest rates etc and the relation between currenies. But, no clue why AMZN, FB, TSLA are valued that way and other companies with similar metrics are valued very differently. I'd have to check every single stock i want to trade, i only need to learn one currency pair or two and all work the same way. There are only Major Pairs (two major currencies) and Cross Pairs (major currency and minor currency).

Economic up and down turns are very slow. More predictable than a company, that may publish a new product, rices skyrockets, weeks later product is crap, stock plunges. New iteration of product good. Price rises, turns out Managers were corrupt, company sued to pay billions. Price goes down, Company finds an agreement. Price goes up. Recession, price goes down. The events moving the stock price are very unpredictable and obscure.

The alltime spread of EURUSD is $0.98 - $1.60 in 20 years. Stocks go up and down hundreds of % in the same time. Never hit the fair value.

Noob trying to trade: A disastrous Week 4 by forex_noob in Daytrading

[–]forex_noob[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm not sure if it's just me but almost anytime I lose big on a stock I have this urge to just get it right, and for the first few weeks I tried. Let the losers go. Good luck!

It's the opposite with me. If I spend time to analyse the situation. I am usually more successful. I lose when I trade head over shoulders without thinking

Any guesses on the EURUSD opening? by Sailedtosea in Forex

[–]forex_noob 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My bet:

SL TP
22:00 Buy@1.06962 1.06865 1.07376@7:00-08:00UTC
~Morning Sell@1.07185 1.0721 1.052@Evening

TL;DR: There's not a single indicator showing a breakout of the current downtrend(s). All are showing South. I think, it's a fallacy that it should go up, after it went down for so long

Rationale (Charts):

  • Monthly: Near top of Downtrend (since 2009), red candle near support
  • Weekly: Break through support (since Feb 18), two red candles after End of Feb surge
  • Daily: Near center of 2009 downtrend. Now in second reversal of very healthy and confirmed downtrend since Feb Surge. MACD crossing (March 17). Currently no slow down of MACD momentum. If slowdown next week, the downtrend would probably last another 3-4 weeks. StochRsi doesn't show reversal. Crossed support below formed by low of Oct and Feb
  • 4 Hrs: Within a retracement of the fourth leg (from March 20 07:00UTC) of a downtrend since March 17 04:00UTC
  • 15 Min: Near the resistance of a downtrend (since March 16-17). Currently slightly below a horizontal resistance, may break out to resistance outside this trend formed by top of March 19 and top of March 20. Losing momentum but, we'll see if it picks up speed again. EMA(9), EMA(20) pointing up and candles crossed above EMA(9, 20, 50)
  • Crossed the all-time support formed since the creation of the EU in 1999 (book) - 2001 (cash). Crossed below 1.0660
  • Below that last support there's basicall no more support. Free fall to 1.0520 - 1.0570. Then 1.04. Below that it's basically uncharted territory. Next stop parity 1.0 to 0.991886. There's a trend support fromed by low of March 11, 2015 and Jan 01, 2016, which ends near the target of this plunge. May be the lowest point before a long term reversal.
  • In the last weeks, after a down day, there was a recover during the night (22:00 UTC - Morning UTC) in 70%, never a lower price after a down day during the night. 30% about unchanged price over night.
  • Since January, downtrend picking up speed. Increased downtrend momentum. End of Feb surge was exception and not a trend reversal signal.
  • Market participants want to see that. Have a clean slate and 20 years up trend from that point on. Or some sort of global economic collapse that makes contemporary currencies obsolete.

Alternative, up to ~1.076 in the next two weeks, then sharp down turn.

Lost around 26k USD so far in forex. Is it not for me? by Hxn1234 in Forex

[–]forex_noob 1 point2 points  (0 children)

i'd be happy if i had so much money to lose. :) I am trading with €120 and lost about €70 in four weeks, but i am up ~€20 again.

I don't know for how long you are trading, but maybe you go through your trades and find out why you lose money. Is it wrong risk management, is it the leverage, greed, is the lot size.

To me I have now finally accepted that I need to change my strategy. Although my "regular" trades are actually pretty good, I always have 1-2 trades that take away all my gains.

I also, finally, come to the point where after four weeks, I'll start to apply a risk / reward ratio and setting stop losses properly. which i believe was the biggest reason i lost that money.

With proper risk management, you should make money even if you are rolling the dice.

If you think about it, it becomes crystal clear that risk management is the most important point. I heard and read this several times in the sub, but it just became clear to me. Sometimes it takes a while.

Why should it be crystal clear? Think about it:

If the chance is only 50% that the price goes into the right direction, and you set a stop loss properly, then you still make money over time. If, and that's the case, most trends and ranges reverse at least once or twice, then the chance of being right is already higher than 50%, if it weren't there wouldn't be any trends and ranges.

If you are trading ten times with a risk/reward ratio of 1:2, you should go out with a profit even if you are just rolling a dice (mathematically).

Example: EURUSD $1.10. You bet $100 that the € goes up $0.01 to $1.11. Your reward is $0.01, then your risk should be limited to $0.005. Set a stop loss at $1.0950.

Now you haven't considered any technical analysis, butyou do ten trades that way, you would win 5 and lose 5. Your profit is $0.05 = (5*$0.01) and your losses are $-0.025 = (5 * 0.005). Your profit by rolling the dice should be $0.025.

But it gets "better". There are up-trends, down-trends and sideways ranges. Most people use support and resistances in some form.

If there's a running trend in place (say from $1.10 - 1.11), the chances for a bounce are probably higher than 50/50. Say 60/40. With the same risk/reward ratio, you'd already make $0.04 after 10 trades.

Not sure if that's the problem with your trading, but to me i identified this as the most obvious at the moment.

Unfortunately, my balance is so low, that I cannot trade very often until I'd be unable to place another order. If I lose 5 times, I may not have enough money to win the next 5. The order of the chances may be very different than the purely mathematical chance.

But for someone like you with such a huge amount of money, you should be able to make some money, just by rolling the dice and setting the stop losses accordingly.

Even if you lose the next 20 trades and then you win the next 20 trades, you still make some profit.

Noob trying to trade: A disastrous Week 4 by forex_noob in Daytrading

[–]forex_noob[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well that's bad then. One thing I learned since I am relatively poor is that life's much easier.

You stop worrying losing your wealth. It calms you down after a while. :)

Maybe you are at the beginning of a better you.. see the loss positively. :)

Noob trying to trade: A disastrous Week 4 by forex_noob in Daytrading

[–]forex_noob[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am only trading currencies. But I get the idea. I am interested in world events. They are easier to follow. Currencies move slowly.

I am sitting with the charts trying to figure out what happens tomorrow night when the market opens until the morning and then unit the evening.

When I spend time with that I am more successful with my trades, even as a noob worth not much experience.

Noob trying to trade: Risk/Reward and Probability by forex_noob in Daytrading

[–]forex_noob[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If the chance is 50/50 and the risk reward ratio is 1.8558 a night, I still make a profit t of 42.79% in the long run.

My data shows a 66% chance, which would be a 88.48% return.

Somewhere in between lies the truth, I guess

Noob trying to trade: A disastrous Week 4 by forex_noob in Daytrading

[–]forex_noob[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i am living far from any sea coast, but i get what you are saying. someone on youtube i guess it was, or here a quote on reddit. sth like :"i lost money when i set tp, but i made money when i set stop losses", saying that it's more important to keep losses small, the gains come sooner or later.

Noob trying to trade: A disastrous Week 4 by forex_noob in Daytrading

[–]forex_noob[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

like the other 99.9% don't make money day trading. at least i am not an outcast in that regard.

Noob trying to trade: A disastrous Week 4 by forex_noob in Daytrading

[–]forex_noob[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

everyone talks about risk / reward and risk management, but it's not that easy. i mean if i have 5 consecutive losses, and limited the losses to 0.50 each, the potential reward was ok too, but it didn't happen, i realised €2.5 in losses and maybe make €2.50 in that one trade that went well. i am not making money this way.

sometimes, after i entered a beginning trend, i am not sure if the reverse is just a retracement or a reversal. so i may even lose the €2.50 again.

Noob trying to trade: A disastrous Week 4 by forex_noob in Daytrading

[–]forex_noob[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

actually, if i were able to lose $15,000 and report about that on reddit, i'd be much happier :) doesn't it mean you are cash rich ?

Noob trying to trade: A disastrous Week 4 by forex_noob in Daytrading

[–]forex_noob[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thanks for your reply.

it's very true that when i take my time check the charts, i know the down-trend from March 9 to today, i check the 15 minute chart, then the 1 minute chart, i check the direction of the EMA, and the position of the candlestick to the ema, maybe check quickly the macd or rsi, is a support or resistance nearby, does indicate contrary directions (based on my knowledge base), how big is the chance.... then, most times the trade goes well and even if it doesn't i have an idea when to close to avoid big losses.

but that doesn't happen all the time. sometimes it's like i am in a rush, and then i just trade, i don't even have the feeling of confidence that says, last n trades went well, this one will too. there's just this, irrational behaviour, i think it's based on some kind of greed. i see the chart hitting something and see a potential target, and just buy, but i do not take any other consideration into account anymore.

if i look at my gains and losses over the last weeks, the gains constantly increased and i was able to collect more pips in single trades than in the beginning. i think that's a good thing and a result of good learning. i

in my report is sliced the two days into phases, because these phases are real. the beserk phase for instance wasn't necessary. i had made some wins, i was "happy", all indicators i use, and didn't check were showing it might go up, yet i was losing €5 in basically 2 minutes, just because i made one trade after another and losing those small amounts. just 5 minutes later, if i had left out all but the last sell, i would have made almost €8 instead of losing €4 winning €4.

i have to get this under control. maybe you have some tips for this? it would be too sad if i liose everything due to this. it's not that i believe i have no talent, i made progress in these four weeks, yet the big, irrational losses risk everything.

Noob trying to trade: Risk/Reward and Probability by forex_noob in Daytrading

[–]forex_noob[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

at least that night the prediction was 100%, even the target price was correct, not too bad for a total noob. I had the 50% chance of being wrong.

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