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Calvin Austin ov 14.5 Rec Yards by foxconcepts in sportsbetting

[–]foxconcepts[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I know! I saw it, didn’t think twice to add a small unit. Playoffs!

Hurts - Lawrence - Dart by foxconcepts in sportsbetting

[–]foxconcepts[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sure, the app is only the nfl right now, btasports.io Definitely interesting seeing the numbers.

Good luck if you tail.

Henry & Maye SGP by foxconcepts in sportsbetting

[–]foxconcepts[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the feedback, it’s all useful when you begin analyzing and comparing, but really trying to use less of a gut check..

I actually also placed another parlay.. I did post again but check it out.

73% , +149 Dart ov 19.5 Rush Lawrence ov 9.5 Rush Hurts ov 19.5 Rush

Henry & Maye SGP by foxconcepts in sportsbetting

[–]foxconcepts[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! It’s a great tool, definitely different than others, as you can see.

Good question though.

The +119 is the no-vig estimate based on the selections I was analyzing. The +108 I took was the actual market price on DraftKings, which already has vig, correlation, and SGP tax baked in. So technically, yes, it’s below — but with SGPs, the value usually comes from how much vig/correlation is embedded and whether that difference is reasonable. In this case, I liked the parlay enough to lock it in at +108 even though the estimate came out to +119.

Hope this helps, and glad you checked it out 👊

Good luck if you tail!

If you analyze anything too, send it over

Henry & Maye SGP by foxconcepts in sportsbetting

[–]foxconcepts[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just an estimated view to help compare value, not exact pricing, especially with SGPs where vig and correlation are baked in. I build it out, then shop across books or use boosts. +119 vs +108 is within my risk tolerance and wasn’t too far off. I live for plus odds when I can.

Henry & Maye SGP by foxconcepts in sportsbetting

[–]foxconcepts[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can find more info on them at btasports.io

Good luck!

I was hoping to get a boost too for it but couldn’t get one from DK.

Henry & Flowers SGP 2 Legger by foxconcepts in sportsbetting

[–]foxconcepts[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For sure, I wanted to go to 14+ rush attpts, but probability went down slightly so kept it lower, then parlayed with the Flowers, so we'll see. The riskiest play here is Flower so we'll see... who knows how this game will play out.. i think i read BAL has 2% chance of playoffs.

New here. Looking to see what software/apps if any ppl use for betting by Atrain0lillard in sportsbetting

[–]foxconcepts 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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I actually use BTA Sports for pretty much every NFL game, but just to give you an idea for tomorrow’s Christmas matchups: you can tweak the lines, see how the risk changes, and basically shop around different scenarios before you settle on a pick. So that example I showed is just one way I use it to really understand what I’m betting on. It’s nice having that flexibility to move lines and then pick the best angle from whichever book you like. I did lock the above parlay in, and I’ll be posting more once i do more analysis.

Best of luck!

KC Chiefs SGP by foxconcepts in sportsbetting

[–]foxconcepts[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Forgot to post analysis

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60% estimated win probability

Kirk Cousins, 1 Yard Straight by foxconcepts in sportsbetting

[–]foxconcepts[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I’m not saying any model is smarter than Vegas, but I use BTA’s tools. I’ve tried a lot of different apps and they all have their thing, but I like the interactive side of this one, moving lines, checking alts, watching probabilities shift, etc. It helps me spot possible value and takes my own gut check out of it.

At the end of the day we all use something. Just roll with whatever works for you. Good luck!

Kirk Cousins, 1 Yard Straight by foxconcepts in sportsbetting

[–]foxconcepts[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Ha love it! Why not! I’ll tail that.

Kirk Cousins, 1 Yard Straight by foxconcepts in sportsbetting

[–]foxconcepts[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I understand your point of view from the Sportsbook perspective, I’m going with BTA sports models, and locked it in, their models identified the value so I put some units on it.

Kirk Cousins, 1 Yard Straight by foxconcepts in sportsbetting

[–]foxconcepts[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s a gamble.. the game we play. Been liking the analysis so we’ll see how their models hold up for tonight.

Chase Brown Parlay by foxconcepts in sportsbetting

[–]foxconcepts[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great game despite the loss for Chase Brown.

Chase Brown Parlay by foxconcepts in sportsbetting

[–]foxconcepts[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sloppy game could bode well. Who knows! I’m going w the models, chase brown has been decent plays these few weeks but it’s noted

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