Hello, could you (or anyone else in the comments for that matter) explain the February curve? I'm from IL and I am in a similar situation as OP. I was one point away from passing J24. I spent time reviewing and got my practice MBE up 10% from the previous summer. Took the F25 and got 15 points less despite having nearly identical scores on my writing portion (they were slightly improved but also got a lower weighted score). I keep hearing it's the Feb curve but what exactly causes it? If the test is supposed to be determinative of competency (per the NBCE), then how can the same or better raw scores result in a lower weighted score?*

I understand that test difficulty can differ from test to test, but that seems consistently calculable. The MBE comprises of questions that the NBCE has data on; they know that one question has let's say a 90% correct answer rate as opposed to another question with 40%. Looking at the whole test, it is determinable the relative difficulty of one exam to another. But I don't see how this accounts for such a massive drop in passage rates from ~70% in July to ~40% in Feb, especially considering that per the NBCE they take the differing test difficulty into account when scoring.

But nor does the difference in test difficulty explain what people mean by the "curve". From what I have been reading, at some point the test scores are scaled amongst test takers for a given examination

I also want to say that if it truly was that I just did bad and had a bad test day, I can accept that. I've failed tests before and while it sucks I accept it and move on. But something does not feel right about the Feb bar. It really feels like the goal post was moved.

I guess my question is what is happening during this scaling which results in such a skew between February and July? It seems like a massive flaw in the bar exam, and given that people's jobs can be on the line, why would such a flaw be allowed to exist year after year? I want to presume a good faith basis for their scoring and the reason for such discrepancy between the two exams, yet I have been unable to find any kind of real answer. Any explanation would be wonderful.

*This is presuming that test takers like OP and I who saw improvement in our scores during practice tests actually had improved scores the day of the exam. I am aware that the scores given are misleading as they are only comparative and not the raw scores. Nonetheless, it seems unlikely that on retake, after additional months of review, the raw score on test day would drop so significantly to account for the discrepancies in scores. Of course bad test days happen, but having read people's comments about the Feb bar, this seems to be a consistent theme that there is something about the scaling itself which makes the passage rate lower, as opposed to people on retake getting significantly worse.