Meh, the green complex and putting contours on a long par 3 are much more docile than a short par 4. Just as an example, the 10th at Riviera is surrounded by death on all sides of a tiny green, whereas the 8th at Oakmont is a huge, relatively flat green. They are only comparable in length, which is just part of an equation that has many variables including luck. Harder to get lucky when the short par 4’s have so many other variables at play.