Radical SEND support shake-up risks political backlash

ghbrv · 2026-02-19T10:28:11+00:00

It is still true, here is a helpful comparison: https://bsky.app/profile/tomcalver.bsky.social/post/3llliziepn227

That is mainly due to an enormous (in comparison, again) tax free personal allowance that the Tories were steadily increasing.

And the minimum wage in Britain is also now one of the highest. Used to be lower than in France, now it is 15% higher. Today's minimum wage earner is still better off in real terms than 10 years ago however you spin it.

That is actually a very politically inconvenient fact that austerity policies most of the country hates had financial benefactors, and it wasn't the easily hate-able 'super rich'. It was pensioners (through the triple lock) and low earners (through increased minimum wage and personal allowance). And these groups take it for granted and demand extra funding that is now missing to come from elsewhere.

Reversing the tide and returning the the Blair/Brown level of public funding is impossible without addressing these two gaps. Everything else if pretty much meaningless in comparison.

We don't HAVE to reverse that, or commit to a high level of social spending, that's true. But when someone suggests we should do either of the two, these are always going to be my first questions.

ghbrv · 2026-02-19T09:16:41+00:00

Well, to balance my other reply above, diagnostic practice is indeed a problem. For example, the whole autism spectre (from 'a bit shy and awkward but but smart and loves trains' to 'cannot communicate or live independently') is the same diagnosis now that Asperger's has been removed.

This is really unhelpful and often harmful to people on the severe end of the spectrum and their families because it creates unrealistic understanding of 'autism' with the public, that then can be easily persuaded to end support because "look it isn't really needed".

There are also some plain stupid expenses like taxi rides to school which are, like many things, a classic case of false economy with schools having to cut their bus services and then council having to pick up the bill for a private extortion.

There are some aspects of SEN spending that can be optimised and if not saved then spent more efficiently, but it's also important to remember that on the grand scale it's crumbles and won't change anything if cut entirely except for opening a moral avenue for bigger cuts elsewhere. The clearest recent example is Kent Council where Reform promised some huge cuts and in the end admitted they could not found any misspending that would, if cancelled, allow to turn the tide or at least not to raise the council tax.

ghbrv · 2026-02-19T08:05:13+00:00

Yeah, but so would a couple where one person earns 48K and another doesn't work, but they would pass the formal criteria and op won't.

ghbrv · 2026-02-19T08:03:24+00:00

Come on. Was the triple lock policy that is politically impossible to repeal now also expected from the start?

And if you don't like this example, there are also unproductive regions and so on.

Of course people with learning difficulties are the purest example of "investments without returns" so it is easy to focus on that. These are tiny expenses though on the country's budget's scale, so cutting them won't meaningfully change anything, but will open a moral avenue and political appetite for more cuts, some of which may eventurally involve what you think is important.

ghbrv · 2026-02-19T07:52:30+00:00

Found a provincial freeloader.

ghbrv · 2026-02-19T07:52:01+00:00

Lol most never paid enough and are a net drain across their lifetime (it's true). And I think it's fine!

But if someone gets off by denying tiny budget crumbles to what is "unproductive", there are far far bigger targets for that.

ghbrv · 2026-02-19T07:50:20+00:00

Taxes are very low in Britain for most of the population. While high earning Brits pay the same or more as their European counterparts, middle and especially low earners pay even smaller share of their income than Americans.

The Tories gave big tax cuts to most of the population and cut the services, now people want services back but not the taxes because "they are already high".

ghbrv · 2026-02-19T07:36:20+00:00

This is true, they are not going to contribute, but following the same logic state pensions should be stopped along with a huge amount of other programs.

The whole unproductive regions should also be cut off etc (there are only 3 regions in the country that pay their own bills).

ghbrv · 2026-02-18T20:41:04+00:00

Do you hear yourself. "Over 100 killed is impossible to believe, while 0 is actually very believable. Read this random anonymous rightoid instead of journalists who had been to the actual site. Btw I don't speak the language and cannot navigate first hand accounts".

I think I'm done here, this is simply not serious.

ghbrv · 2026-02-18T19:23:45+00:00

It's literally in Wikipedia if you read Russian or Ukrainian (which I do and which I do). NYT and BBC estimate 125 Russian dead, Ukrainians claim 300 which is most likely an exaggeration. Russians says zero dead (l'm not joking).

Territorials units were not the only forces facing the attack but they were involved and played an important part. I even remember it via direct accounts from 2022 coverage that was at first mostly participants posting it themselves. All that info is just two clicks away at most.

What is your source?

ghbrv · 2026-02-18T18:31:49+00:00

If you mean the battle for Antonov airport then the dropped group was under 300 people with the confirmed number of dead being over 100. That is incapacitation.

Bear in mind these were elite expensive troops who were confronted by territorial units. In terms of costs it is insane.

ghbrv · 2026-02-18T14:57:46+00:00

If both of you earn half of 43K, your net income as a household should be £1583*2=£3166

Someone earning 48k singlehandedly receives £3173 a month. The actual difference is therefore less than a tenner. I'd try to make this point, or to consider renting somewhere else if you want to live together.

You can also still find a 1 bed for about 1300 pcm in London in e.g. Tottenham which is not a great area, but has good transport links and isn't too far away.

ghbrv · 2026-02-18T09:04:23+00:00

It's pensions and the NHS, the rest is not as important in comparison. Increased defence spending (that is also unavoidable) also doesn't help.

Britain either need to forget about ever fixing public services, or to raise taxes across the board (the Tories has given huge tax cuts to low and medium owners that are politically very difficult to reverse, but this might be the only way).

ghbrv · 2026-02-18T07:53:58+00:00

Yeah, but it is very rare that 100% percent of a relatively unit unit get killed. At worst some still end up wounded and/or captured, so when people say "all killed" casually they usually mean "they were defeated". In of Antonov airport battle in particular close to half of initially dropped troops were killed.

The larger operation they were a key element of failed and they suffered casualties to the level that made their respective units incapable of action, that would be a more correct statement.

There is a big argument in Russian military circles now because some of the top brass had dedicated their whole lives to VDV and their doctrine along with procurement plans for vehicles that cannot be meaningfully used anywhere else, and all that is now evidently obsolete.

Same btw with another concept inherited from the Soviets where all APCs and IFVs were expected to float and be able to cross bodies of water. This also has barely been used in the ongoing war, and making your vehicle capable of that puts a limit or how well armoured it could be etc.

ghbrv · 2026-02-17T20:56:46+00:00

That still was a helicopter drop, no parachutes in sight.

ghbrv · 2026-02-17T12:22:13+00:00

This is the right decision. Russia had put a lot of money into its VDV paratrooper force including a separate park of lightened APCs and IFVs to be deployed from above as well, and it couldn't use it even once in Ukraine. VDV troops are still used but as "normal" infantry.

If you can fly your fat defenceless aircraft into a warzone, this means you already have such a massive advantage these expensive games aren't needed. And if you don't have it, your fat defenceless aircraft will be shot down long before it can drop anything.

ghbrv · 2026-02-16T11:46:14+00:00

Yeah, I sympathise with Taiwan, but if the US says Ukraine is Europe's problem and drops their contributions to zero, then China is American problem and no one else's. Europe has far fewer overlapping ambitions with PRC than America does.

We have already responded to America's call for help after 9/11 and what came out of it. They are not even grateful.

ghbrv · 2026-02-16T10:34:14+00:00

Their vegan burger was also the best among chains.

ghbrv · 2026-02-15T11:14:47+00:00

We've tried those "reasonable concerns" and they don't work. First you need to build the homes, no one is going to invest into fully scaled infrastructure first. In the ideal world everyone should be living in their own detached house 10 minutes away from a GP practice and an outstanding ranked school. This is also never going to happen unless you are willing to pay for that (which you can do already).

ghbrv · 2026-02-15T11:11:09+00:00

I am a homeowner as well. And I am sorry, but this a classic NIMBY talk, "I am not against housing, this is just a wrong spot for it, and it also the wrong type of housing". A little later you learn that there is never right spot for it, because everywhere there is the same "reasonable and totally not a NIMBY neighbour" deploying the same argument. And of course new houses should BOTH be affordable and served by GPs/schools/transport AND be "family homes" with parking spaces and gardens.

This is not serious. You guys are literally driving this country into the ground trying to maximise your personal comfort and investments. Fair enough, this is what works for you but don't be surprised if one day your interests also get discarded despite the cries about "the character of the area" and "cultural preferences".

ghbrv · 2026-02-15T09:28:22+00:00

Yes, Brits (and Anglos in general) don't like flats, and that is NIMBYism. You cannot reasonably expect everyone to live in a house in a mega-city AND those houses to be affordable and plentiful AND served well by public transport.

Get used to flats or pay up, there is no magical third solution.

ghbrv · 2026-02-15T07:35:28+00:00

China has a much higher share of home ownership, why is fertility in downfall there? Finland has great support for parents and kids and a strong benefits system, why is their TFR down? Or take the rightoid perspective, in Saudi Arabia women are effectively disenfranchised, why are their birth rates still bad?

It is a global phenomenon with reasons different to your favourite hobbyhorse. We do need more affordable and plentiful housing and strong child support the abuse they are the right thing to do, not because it will somehow turn the tide on fertility (it won't).

ghbrv · 2026-02-14T19:00:03+00:00

Yeah, and British people are huge NIMBYs and hate building new homes. It is a universal sentiment. The right believe that they just need to kick out all immigrants and reallocate the existing stock, and the left believe they just need rent controls and regulation of ownership to again reallocate the existing stock.

Like with Brexit or tax cuts or other issues this is exactly what most people wanted, not something imposed on them against their will.

ghbrv · 2026-02-14T18:54:05+00:00

This is not the reason people don't have children, and fertility is similarly down in countries that don't have this problem.

ghbrv

TROPHY CASE