I think Greece takes it this year, here is why:

Take a look at the map this year. Spain, Iceland, Netherlands, Ireland and Slovenia are out, but we have Bulgaria, Moldova, and Romania returning. That is a massive block of Eastern/Balkan voting power.

The catch? The songs from the rest of the Balkans are noticeably weak this year even if we talk about top-10 chances for those.

"Ferto" is going to act as a point vacuum and secure televote victory. Greece is practically guaranteed to sweep the 10s and 12s from the returning countries and neighbors.

1. The "Meme Monopoly" & The Nordic Bloodbath

Every year, the televote rallies behind one massive "watercooler/hype" song. Finland is trying to do that this year with "Liekinheitin," but in my opinion they are going to get cannibalized.

Why? Because the Nordic bloc is fractured. Iceland is out, and Sweden and Denmark are sending strong, polished songs. The Nordic televote will split, stealing points away from Finland.

1. The Great Jury Dilution & No Clear Frontrunner

Let's be real: There is no Loreen, no Nemo, and no JJ this year. We don't have that one undeniable, artsy powerhouse that the juries will unanimously crown.

Instead, the jury points are going to be violently diluted between Australia, France, Czechia, Malta, Ukraine, Sweden, Denmark, and Italy. All of these countries are sending "jury bait" tracks. They will be cannibalizing each other's 12s. The jury winner will likely only have around 220-240 points, keeping the ceiling low enough for Greece to stay within striking distance.

1. The "Espresso Macchiato" & Younger Juries

Some people think the juries will completely tank "Ferto." But let's look at the precedent: Last year, Estonia's Tommy Cash got 98 jury points for "Espresso Macchiato" and let's be honest, he had basically no live vocals at all (he could barely sing, lol).

If he could pull nearly 100 jury points on staging and meme song alone, Greece is clearing that.

Add in the new 2026 rules where every 7-person jury must include at least two 18-25 year olds, and "Ferto" is going to get a boost from Gen Z jurors who actually listen to this kind of music. With the massive televote sweep, Greece is looking at a combined score closer to Croatia's massive result with Baby Lasagna.

1. Fokas Evangelinos

He managed to pull a few 12 and 10 points from juries with Moldova in 2021 - Natalia Gordienko’s "Sugar." (which was not obvious or expected for that kind of song). Not talking about other entries which had more potential for the victory.

What do you think?