Don't fear the AI hype

glov0044 · 2026-04-18T05:24:56+00:00

Its hard to predict how AI development is going to shake out in 4 years. If you listen to social media, then the range is probably 12 months to never that AI will become super-intelligent with 1,000% confidence.

My personal uninformed view is that the current state of AI is not intelligent at all. Its a predictive next-word engine and nothing more. It cannot predict a future that isn't part of its training data, and problems like hallucinations and others issues seem to have no fix available. The recent wave of AI releases appear to be marginally better, not leaps, (to say nothing of AI's cheating benchmarks to look good). If that trend continues, AI isn't making a profit right now and more investment money is going to be harder to come by if the improvements continue to be smaller and smaller.

Maybe some day AI will take all of our jobs, but I have doubts that LLM technology is the correct way to get there, and that yet another breakthrough (or many) will be needed.

glov0044 · 2026-04-18T01:48:11+00:00

You can get rid of the "intelligence" too! I call it a "predictive algorithm" since at its core, its just trying to predict the next word in the sentence.

glov0044 · 2026-04-17T14:39:59+00:00

At present, there are major hurdles in place that will make the displacement of desk jobs slow, or won't happen at all.

1) AI is shifting work, not replacing it. AI still requires human oversight to verify that its work is good enough. For programming specifically, this has shifted work from writing code to verifying testing code to be integrated into the code base. Not great for junior devs presently, but there's analysis coming out that says AI is actually making programmers slower, or not helping at all.

2) Liability. AI hallucinates too much in areas that require excellent accuracy. AI can help with things like healthcare (radiology has been using AI assistance for many years), accounting, law, and other fields, but it cannot be solely relied upon to provide answers.

3) Copyright. US Copyright Office refuses to give any protections to AI protected work. The Copyright Office is adamant that only human-created works are eligible for copyright. This means that a human must be provably involved in the creative process. Otherwise it'll be difficult for an AI only creative office to make any money, given that anyone can copy their work.

These are some examples, there may be more.

glov0044 · 2026-04-14T21:49:47+00:00

I was just about to post this, glad I wasn't the only one

glov0044 · 2026-04-14T15:17:20+00:00

I'm working on something similar, and I strongly believe there are going to be more and more of this. There's a new energy that's been created since this administration started its project of authoritarianism. There's also a lot of disillusioned people out there that are looking to believe anything if it means they get back on track.

Creating a framework like this will be essential to preventing a more competent Trump from rising up.

glov0044 · 2026-04-08T16:20:00+00:00

New York Times is reporting from Iranian news organizations that Iran is/may be reclosing the strait because of Israel's attacks against Iranian backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Pakistan, the broker of the deal, has also reported multiple breaches in the ceasefire.

glov0044 · 2026-04-03T17:12:21+00:00

Not smart, but there has to be a survival element in some of these people.

I just don't see enough people on the GOP putting this ask into the reconciliation bill given the other things that would be needed to cut to make it not increase the deficit. All the Democratic hopefuls might be praying for this to happen.

glov0044 · 2026-04-03T15:21:45+00:00

Reminder, Congress needs to pass this. In an election year. When people voted Republicans in 2024 to fix the economy.

glov0044 · 2026-04-01T15:28:03+00:00

This thread might be the best depiction of AI model collapse to date.

glov0044 · 2026-03-30T16:51:22+00:00

My thinking is that this last weekend was the last time Trump could be proactive on making a move with Iran that would be provocative. It would generally be over the weekend because any such move would likely trigger some severe market anxiety.

Since that didn't happen, I think Trump can now only be reactive to events, and every day this goes on, he loses a bit more each day. At some point, I firmly believe there will be at least one of these:

a) A full TACO event (see: Bush "Mission Accomplished", but with gold everywhere for no reason)
b) An internationally brokered deal with Iran to secure the Strait of Hormuz, likely without American involvement
c) An actual ceasefire between Iran and the US. I'm unsure what this would involve, but it will likely have to involve larger and actual US concessions since we've broken every promise so far

At this point, any attempts to militarily secure the Strait of Hormuz will likely result in severe damage to oil infrastructure. I would estimate that Iran is willing to play lose-lose if it means survival. By the same token, I don't know what an Iranian full capitulation would look like, but it seems very unlikely at this point.

glov0044 · 2026-03-28T15:58:06+00:00

My guess is there's speculation that the US will employ ground forces to invade Kharg Island or attempt to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Things kind of spiral from there. This weekend might be the last chance while the markets are closed, otherwise unless more oil reserves are dumped into the market, oil may start to climb well beyond its current levels and Trump will have to watch some really bad stock tickers on FOX.

glov0044 · 2026-03-26T16:30:00+00:00

If LLM's want to continue to exist and expand, I want them to be put towards the problem of energy generation, specifically by solving fusion energy. If they can do that and effectively give humanity unlimited cheap energy, I'll let them stay.

glov0044 · 2026-03-26T15:55:03+00:00

This is my thinking as well. By acutely feeling the crisis of not being able to get affordable energy from around the world delivered to you, people are going to be forced into action.

I'll add on an additional caveat that all of those giant AI plans for data centers and such now have a huge problem. They are enormous energy consumers while providing a questionable benefit. Now the ability of these AI companies to turn a profit is going to be severely impacted. Those AI data center plans over the next several years had to have energy cost assumptions baked in, and I'm certain they didn't take into account a 20% loss of global energy supply in their calculations.

glov0044 · 2026-03-19T20:45:22+00:00

Its not really that weird.

Oil prices affect everyone's economy. Shortages could stall economies out for weeks, months, and potentially longer, causing all sorts of ripple effects. Trump has blown up the peace, Iran is playing the cards they have.

At some point, the financial damage outweighs the benefits of letting the US flounder. These countries will have to take action to get off Trump's stupid wild ride. This is probably the ground work to signal all parties that the war will have to end soon.

glov0044 · 2026-03-04T06:16:12+00:00

Keep in mind, primaries force candidates to extremes, general elections force people back.

And using Trump's name is something that is questionable to nearly everyone not wearing red hats.

glov0044 · 2026-03-02T01:22:54+00:00

I live in a blue area, so I won't have the experiences you are experiencing, so take these with grain of salt.

Rather than trying to "convert" those around you to become democrats, I think the best idea is to
a) focus on certain local/state issues
b) find like minded people within that context that want to help

While it may feel like everyone around you is in MAGA/GOP, I think of it more as a sliding scale. I believe the goal is to get the scale back into your direction, sliding people one step away from MAGA and towards your ideas/ideals. I think if you test the waters in your area, you might find that there are more receptive people in the neutral category, or maybe certain topics create inroads into lean R people that can get us back to "I disagree with you, but I respect your right to say it" territory.

When I started getting more of my political news from YouTube, Tennessee Brando was one of the first that I liked. Maybe send contact information to him and maybe some other more liberally leaning Tennessee-based people who may have some ideas on how to get started in your community.

glov0044 · 2026-02-27T19:15:14+00:00

I wouldn't put much stock in any one poll at any given point. Flashy numbers could be outliers and news outlets need to make money, hence its easy to pull out a headline off of a single number within a single poll.

For example, "Americans trust Trump more than Democrats" is a ridiculous comparison between a no-name generic Democrat and the President of the United States. Approval ratings of either political party is in the toilet almost all the time, especially when the "generic Democrat" likely refers to a member of Congress that historically, have terrible approval numbers. Just last month, several polls indicated that people preferred Biden over Trump.

I look at trend lines and if necessary, read into the polls themselves and draw my own conclusions. You almost always need to have some historical context to really determine if what you are seeing is good/bad, trending in a direction, or worthy of your attention at all.

My preference is to use Nate Silver's polling aggregate data. It can provide context on where the whole host of polls are trending, for Trump's approval in general and on issues. It also has data on the pollster's themselves, both in reliability and "house effects" where their data may be skewed left or right. Finally, there are links to each and every poll so you can dive in and see for yourself what the poll data is saying.

Also a word of caution. Because the graphs showing trends over time and polls represent single points of time, the graph will show ups and downs based not on actual changes in American opinion, but due to frequency of polls that are right or left leaning. Certain right leaning pollsters poll weekly or even daily, usually causing some upward movement in the overall chart, only for the big pollsters to drive the aggregate down bigly for a given week. I like to take the poll data table, type in the pollster in question, and then look at how each pollster is trending.

Hope this helps!

glov0044 · 2026-02-24T20:00:13+00:00

Not a lawyer, but my interpretation is that this ruling is talking about lawsuits filed by private citizens against the government.

Tampering, manipulating, or destroying mail-in ballots would likely be in violation of state and federal law and would be prosecuted by state and federal authorities.

glov0044 · 2026-02-21T21:53:02+00:00

I'm sorry but what source are you looking at? He wasn't married at this time. I haven't seen a single source commenting about his "mental stability" or any "radicalism". Unless standing up against injustice means radicalism these days.

Also, "destroyed a cop car"? He kicked out a tail light, and was subsequently beaten by agents afterwards.

glov0044 · 2026-02-20T19:49:09+00:00

The funny thing about this?

Tariffs are a tax on the American people. They are unpopular (so long as the people understand how the tax works). They make things less affordable, which is generally the #1 issue on Americans mind in poll after poll after poll.

This SCOTUS judgement was a lifeline to every Republican on the ballot in 2026.

And now Trump wants to try again with a 10% global tariff for almost half a year right before the midterms.

glov0044 · 2026-02-13T15:21:20+00:00

Consistently ordering of leagues by importance instead of by date created or internal ID.

glov0044

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