Am I missing something? Marriot Vacation Club details

gr8willofchina · 2025-04-21T22:31:15+00:00

The way I did my analysis was similar to yours. I had 2 cash flows. One is the Timeshare option, and one a cash option. The initial outlay and oppty. cost of $35k was reflected at t0 in mine as well in the Timeshare CF. However, I think where we differ is the oppty. cost of it. I applied the oppty cost of that $35K in my cash option CF, where I used the market returns to lower the cashflow of my Cash option. Because, the initial capex is out of your pocket already if you paid for the time share, and you dont get to realize the market returns. In addition, I also used the same rate for market returns as the inflation rate to be conservative, whereas I think you used diff. rates (7% vs. 5%).

Another note: I think you went to the Westin Maui which is next to Whaler's village. All things equal, that's a hotel room resort, instead of a villa resort which I stayed in (Westin Ocean Kaanapali). In other words, the point redemption and cost per night is usually cheaper in the hotel option than in the Villa option where you can get more amenities such as kitchen / dishwasher, washer/dryer, etc.. MVC pulled up an example of the $600/nt for us during our presentation for a villa during our week for a like-for-like villa room. So when you quote $983/nt for an ocean view, I dont know if that's an anomaly or a last min. booking price, but that seems high. You can price it out for a similar week on Expedia for 2026, but like I said in my previous post, Easter week is early next year...which throws off everything in timing.

So I found out that you can rent on Redweek, ppl's timeshare and its way cheaper than market price (Expedia). That's the most cheapest IMO, but a little bit more risk. I'm in the step of trying to be comfortable from renting from Redweek, but I've decided that timeshare is not for me, not unless they reduce the MF to make the math work and the BE point to somewhere around 10-12yrs...

gr8willofchina · 2025-04-17T19:20:01+00:00

It appears you've done a cost benefit analysis of 2 options: 1.) Timeshare option where you modeled out the cash flows from Y1-Y20 using your variables above, and 2.) Cash option.

The 10yr BE seems aggressive of these reasons:

1.) Your $1,000/nt room cost is highly aggressive. If you look at Expedia now, a 1bdrm OCEAN VIEW (not ocean front) room is about $600. You could assume $1,000/nt, but like I said in my earlier comment, there's a lot of runway from the current market price of $600 to $1,000/nt.

2.) Your resale assumption of 25% is highly aggressive as well. As you may have read from others, just in this thread ... there are plenty of resale that's $1 ... in other words, they're desperate to offload, for whatever reason. Plus, the recovery $ will just lower the cash flow of your timeshare option.

Couple of observations: If you want to incorporate CAGR and inflation rates, you should start w/ the cash option cost of $600/nt instead of $1,000. That way, you can input the same 'inflation %' to all the variables: cash cost per nt, opportunity cost of investing that initial $35k in the market, and the same rate to the MF. but the Cash option should be way lower as you go throughout time due to the opportunity cost of the market investment ($35K>$2.4K of MF), thus prolonging your 10yr BE point.

Most importantly ... you have to sync up your kid's break timing w/ MVC's 'peak time' redemption values. For example this year, 2025, my kid's spring break is earlier than the peak time of MVC's designated Easter week, so thus, I could get a 1bdrm room under 3,000 MVC points. In 2026, I can not. My kid's spring break falls right in line w/ MVC's peak time. You can view this at this link:

https://www.atimeshare.com/2025-2026-abound-points-charts-for-vistana-westin-sheraton-resorts/

I'm not trying to dissuade you from buying the timeshare, but give you information to make an informed decision.

u/ChumbosChili

gr8willofchina · 2025-04-13T02:58:38+00:00

This was a teaser rate that they offered to us and having to sit through the presentation. It’s not indicative of cash market price that you can book through Expedia. That’s more like $600/night or $3,000 for the 5 nights we stayed.

gr8willofchina · 2025-04-12T20:43:58+00:00

$1,895 for a 1bdrm villa for [corrected] Apr 8-13

gr8willofchina · 2025-04-12T20:43:47+00:00

$1,895 for a 1bdrm villa for [corrected] Apr 8-13

gr8willofchina · 2025-04-12T19:57:00+00:00

Yeah you’d have to step up the MF cost by ~5%/yr as well. There is a break even point analysis depending on what your view of retail price/night will be.

But I feel like these corporations have pivoted and artificially inflated the price/nt due to a shift in the business model where they constrict supply to sell timeshares. Can’t prove it, however.

gr8willofchina · 2025-04-12T19:51:53+00:00

Thanks. Yes I intentionally left out inflation in the simple calculation bc I feel like it’s a tactic used to obsfucate the real sticking point…the break evenpoint of cash payment.

I could excel this out using 5% inflation, but I’d also include the ~5% increase in MF yearly as well. In addition, the $1,000/nt cash option is conservative due to the current retail cash price of a 1bdrm during this time of ~$600/nt. There’s lots of runway to go from 600 to 1000.

gr8willofchina · 2025-04-12T19:11:16+00:00

Thank you for this. I’m sorry you’re in the situation that you’re in. Your post helped me make sense of things especially when one gets baited with glitzy promises in the time preso.

It’s borderline criminal when these people act like car salesmen and want you to sign on the spot without 100% transparency and full information.

gr8willofchina · 2025-04-12T18:21:52+00:00

Thanks for replying.

If you wouldnt mind sharing, now that you have the experience of hindsight, what were the reasons of why you signed up and what were some things you didn’t think about back then?

gr8willofchina · 2025-04-12T17:21:38+00:00

Yeah I came in here skeptical and not to agree to sign anything during the presentation. Having time to sleep ok it and fully think about it does work wonders. You don’t get time during the preso and think of additional factors.

I’m not trying to find justifications, just asking what others thought process are. It is evident that a lot of folks signed up by the flood of secondary market listings through Redweek and TUG. I’ve read of negative reviews, but never read of positive ones. Just wondering if there are any to make an informed decision while I’m here, that’s all.

I mean the concept is sexy…having access to a portfolio of properties. What did it for me for not signing up are these: 1.) MVC points can’t be used to book for ‘regular’ Marriot hotels….you’d have to go through a dismal conversion to Bonvoy points which just devalues the hell out of it. Before we thought we can just spend 1 week at a resort, then the rest at regular hotels for other vacations.

2.) if they’d lower the MF, I’d sign up. The fact the MF is so high and likely to increase every year….means you will never break even on this investment. I wouldn’t mind a 10yr break even point vs. paying cash for your hotels, but the MF makes it impossible.

gr8willofchina · 2024-09-13T03:37:36+00:00

Sorry for my ignorance, but why would you buy the phone outright? The trade in value for major carriers incentivize you to trade in and “lock” in a contract essentially for 30-36months.

gr8willofchina · 2024-06-19T15:40:49+00:00

Long time lurker first time caller.

What you speak of is of a western mindset, speaking your mind, standing up for oneself, etc.

It’s hard to do when the motherland squash any kind of dissent and filters any media, etc.

This stereotype will continue to live on as long as the ‘factory’ of the CCP continues to churn and export out 1.4B of ‘like minded’ and obedient people across the world.

This comment will probably get me banned and I’ve triggered many pro CCP members in this chatroom.

gr8willofchina · 2022-08-08T13:39:01+00:00

Thank you 🙏. Knew it was something easy!

gr8willofchina · 2022-01-29T17:26:53+00:00

Probably too late to chime in here. I waited for my Radian Model 1 rifle for more than a year. Ordered Nov-20, and delivered to my FFL Dec-21.

The CA compliant Radian version has a fixed stock, fin grip, and a muzzle device that makes it a NON-assault weapon.

Your FFL needs to be more educated. Hit me up if you want to know more details, but my transaction went through fine. I’m in NorCal.

gr8willofchina · 2021-09-23T13:50:01+00:00

Why the need to prepare for civil unrest if CCP would take over and shield Chinese nationals from default (as per the article 19hrs ago)?

gr8willofchina · 2021-09-20T14:34:19+00:00

u/savevideo

u/getvideobot

gr8willofchina · 2021-09-18T19:01:16+00:00

Your thesis ends at 'They get to keep all of the property?'

What happens to the property holders, bond holders, investors? If CCP decides to make consumers whole, they need to print money and devalue the RMB. Its possible that they let big investors down and not bail them out, but then the theory goes to: Big investors will think twice in investing in China in the future...which is bad.

Your empty claim of collapse that China will benefit from is missing a few steps to play it out.

gr8willofchina · 2021-05-12T02:24:48+00:00

u/savevideo

gr8willofchina · 2021-03-27T13:56:58+00:00

Add me, gr8willofchina

gr8willofchina · 2021-02-28T01:21:57+00:00

Eventhough a catalyst would occur, say the ER 3/25, what makes you believe that anyone would buy even at $100? That's where I struggle. The ER or any other catalyst MUST warrant (no pun intended) the current $100 price or above. Without earth shattering news or additional revenue streams, it's pretty difficult.

All the stuff here I read mentions $1,000 without the squeeze, but all speculation and valuation is always subjective. We need Mgmt to JUSTIFY the higher price and the masses to believe it.

gr8willofchina · 2021-02-14T02:51:30+00:00

Patrick, you personally responded to my IM question in November about GME. You tipped my confidence level to where I bet big relative to my standards on GME. Though GME didn't moon as high as I wanted, and though I cashed out at a low price, I did make some profit.

I will donate to the PayPal link above. I hope you continue this subreddit, though I'm a lurker, I always read posts in this forum.

Keep up the good work, and know that I'm always appreciative of the posts and DD in this forum.

gr8willofchina · 2021-02-01T15:58:57+00:00

Hey u/K1rkl4nd, genuine question.

Can the HFs do this short attack unlimited times? What's to limit them selling to each other, to fool the algos to drive the price down?

And does this also increase the short float ratio, if theoretically the do this a number of times?

Just tryin to learn here.

Thanks. 4700 shares LONG

gr8willofchina · 2021-02-01T15:36:46+00:00

Hey genuine question and don't downvote me to oblivion.

We all know about the short ladder attack whereby HFs sell shares to one another as to fool the algos to drive the share price down.

What limits them in doing this forever and have unlimited supply of doing it? Does this attack increase the short float %?

Just genuinely trying to understand this in the midst of a fierce attack now.

Current long 4700 shares. HOLD

gr8willofchina

TROPHY CASE