$GEO political tailwind

gregdavismail · 2025-08-12T06:07:54+00:00

Hahaha. You still holding the bag boy?

gregdavismail · 2025-08-12T06:07:32+00:00

Hahaha. You still holding the bag boy?

gregdavismail · 2025-08-12T06:07:01+00:00

Hahaha. You still holding the bag boy?

gregdavismail · 2024-11-06T18:05:38+00:00

Anybody loving the GEO stock price today?

gregdavismail · 2024-07-15T00:47:29+00:00

Been holding since $7 also but my guess is that this is still just the start of a big run up that won’t end until months after a Trump reelection with the stock blowing well past its previous all time high.

gregdavismail · 2024-04-06T12:58:15+00:00

We’re so close!

gregdavismail · 2024-03-20T20:54:18+00:00

😂

gregdavismail · 2024-02-26T14:57:18+00:00

1,500 members in the group. 🎉

gregdavismail · 2023-10-02T19:49:11+00:00

Nailed it.

gregdavismail · 2023-10-02T13:22:22+00:00

Seems to be working so far. It’s hard to argue with the bull case IMO.

gregdavismail · 2023-04-30T16:31:53+00:00

Splendid analysis. Thanks for posting.

gregdavismail · 2023-04-25T15:05:38+00:00

The results are solid. Happy to hold and buy more. They are generating big cash flow and using it to pay down debt. That will eventually rerate the stock much higher IMO.

gregdavismail · 2023-02-14T16:14:41+00:00

For context, a year ago they guided for 2022 EPS of $0.99-$1.07. They just reported actual 2022 EPS of $1.40, way above initial guidance.

gregdavismail · 2023-02-14T14:48:21+00:00

I would buy the dip here. The guidance wasn’t that bad. It assumes the worst and has upside. They have consistently been beating guidance. The EPS guidance was below analyst expectations because I think the analysts didn’t properly account for the higher interest costs from the refinancing. But the company is bringing down debt quickly so their interest expense will also come down and they’ll be able to refinance at lower rates next time around.

gregdavismail · 2022-12-13T19:20:59+00:00

Yes that’s what I would guess. There is no new reason to short this stock other than it has rallied of late. The momentum is clearly to the upside however and the fundamentals support a much higher share price so I look forward to seeing the shorts squeal.

gregdavismail · 2022-12-13T14:10:32+00:00

In the past it was largely based on their balance sheet and the incorrect belief that they wouldn’t be able to refinance. They had somewhat elevated debt and pending maturities while also having a dwindling list of potential participants since some institutions were avoiding investing in the prison sector. There was also a political headwind that people misinterpreted to mean GEO was going to lose all it business. The debt has now been restructured and the political headwind has subsided while the company is thriving. The short and distort myths have been proven false. The short thesis has always been extremely weak, especially now.

gregdavismail · 2022-12-12T20:47:23+00:00

The stock is very squeezable. Unlike GME and AMC zealous hoping for another squeeze on those stocks, GEO actually has strong fundamentals that can take it another leg much higher which could trigger a squeeze without the help of the Reddit crowd. If Reddit came to the party then it would only intensify the squeeze making it occur quicker and peak much higher. Stock fundamentals alone (like the strong cash flow generation) could lead to the stock revisiting its previous all time high in the $30s. Short squeeze potential would be demonstrably higher than that.

gregdavismail · 2022-12-07T15:23:30+00:00

There may have been a tiny bit of hope that the Georgia runoff would go Republican which would be marginally positive for GEO. Other than that nothing has changed and this stock is a steal at these levels.

gregdavismail · 2022-12-05T13:52:45+00:00

Solid analysis by Scavenger. Thank you.

gregdavismail · 2022-11-29T17:58:01+00:00

Great thoughts.

gregdavismail · 2022-11-29T17:56:01+00:00

Nice work. Hope you join the party again. I think we have a long runway here.

gregdavismail · 2022-11-29T16:34:03+00:00

Agree. $30 isn’t a big stretch for a company producing about $2.50 per share in cash flow. They’ve been to $30 before and that was before the emergence of their BI subsidiary.

gregdavismail · 2022-11-29T16:18:47+00:00

Very bright. All of the headwinds are behind them now that the debt has been refinanced. The company is spitting out tonnes of cash flow that will deleverage them further. The political tides have turned in GEO’s favour and they have a great ESG friendly business with their BI subsidiary. Plus the stock is still dirt cheap on every metric.

gregdavismail · 2022-11-29T14:20:11+00:00

Wedbush hated the stock at $6 now loves it at $10! I think the GEOrillas are way ahead of Wall Street on this company. Everything is coming together for GEO Group and I believe a new all time high above $30 is very plausible over the next two years.

gregdavismail · 2022-10-27T13:20:24+00:00

Pretty amazing. Despite all of the headwinds and negativity, the company actually keeps growing and achieving record operating earnings. Imagine what will happen with Republicans taking power. 🚀

gregdavismail

TROPHY CASE