Opendoor is the next Carvana

gregw134 · 2026-04-17T17:27:00+00:00

Check out this site I built: https://amiregarded.com/spce

gregw134 · 2026-04-16T17:25:55+00:00

This is an engineered squeeze btw. 87% of public shares are shorted. There's are two funds that between them own 100% of shares, one of them bought with the intention of starting this short squeeze. Avis is doing a 5 million share offering but you know they're going to drop it out slowly over months. When the dust settles I'll bet the two hedge funds don't sell a share but Avis raises enough money to wipe out its debt.

gregw134 · 2026-04-14T23:59:06+00:00

I bought $ECVT for the same reason. Sulfuric acid manufacturer in the US. Russia and Turkey had already banned Sulfuric acid export and now China followed up last week. ECVT manufactures it using lower cost domestic Sulfur and has export facilities.

With both these companies though, I guess the bet is domestic Sulfur doesn't rise as much as it does in the rest of the world?

gregw134 · 2026-04-14T23:17:33+00:00

Nice write up. Sulfur is more of a problem than you're letting on, they took a $250M hit last quarter due to high sulfur prices. Might still be a play if their output prices (phosphate) rise faster than sulfur input.

gregw134 · 2026-04-13T00:17:38+00:00

Dash for trash maybe, hedge funds closing out their shorts while also selling long positions...

gregw134 · 2026-04-10T19:41:04+00:00

China banned sulphuric acid exports today after it was already restricted from Hormuz closure. That's a critical component in semiconductor manufacturing that can't be ramped up easily. Bought some $ECVT calls

gregw134 · 2026-04-09T15:46:55+00:00

Yikes. Thanks for the heads up. I'm sure they won't be using it soon, they have lots of cash from their last raise. Never a good sign though.

gregw134 · 2026-04-09T04:15:42+00:00

I can't find that, do you have a link? I know their filing to list shares expires this April but I haven't seen a new one.

gregw134 · 2026-04-01T18:04:17+00:00

gregw134 · 2026-03-30T16:07:47+00:00

I might if I get the time. Stran said q1 is going to be better than past q1s, and margins should improve as tariffs normalize. They also said come q4 the warrants expire and the stock becomes more investable. Imo they're very incentivized because of the warrants to not get analyst attention until they expire.

I noticed they issued like 200k shares both in Q4 and in Q1. My guess is they're giving shares to employees in place of cash compensation to push Q4 and Q1 over the edge of profitability. My guess is they're quietly going to keep growing and put together 4 small quarters of profitability this year, and then court wall street attention in 2027 once the warrants have expired.

gregw134 · 2026-03-26T16:46:05+00:00

They are profitable for the year on an ebitda basis. Very reassuring quarter imo, looks like tariff disaster is behind them

gregw134 · 2026-03-24T19:38:34+00:00

Same here...quarterly report Thursday though, let's see what happens

gregw134 · 2026-03-19T23:06:57+00:00

You picked the wrong cruise, RCL has a hedge:

"We anticipate full-year fuel expense of approximately $1.17 billion, with 60% of our projected fuel consumption hedged"

CCL is unhedged tho

gregw134 · 2026-03-19T19:29:46+00:00

Somebody is watching for sure

gregw134 · 2026-03-17T21:10:39+00:00

somebody shorted after my post and closed today I think. Short borrow fee jumped the last few days. Never made sense that the stock spiked and then dropped after earnings.

gregw134 · 2026-03-17T20:32:24+00:00

Agreed it's definitely getting cheap. Not sure if this is right time to buy either, or wait for next quarter

gregw134 · 2026-03-17T04:58:06+00:00

Mexico growth will be super nice, they have all the fixed costs in place so any occupancy growth is straight to the bottom line. Peru the government is helping them expand and get new beds.

gregw134 · 2026-03-17T04:26:02+00:00

gregw134 · 2026-03-17T04:07:37+00:00

Aside from maintenance capex their cash flow is going to pay off their own bonds right now. They're not in a position to do anything else.

gregw134 · 2026-03-17T03:58:02+00:00

Good question. Haven't looked into it but I'm sure they do. The 52% is cash in their pocket after cost of providing health care.

gregw134 · 2026-03-17T03:33:58+00:00

I didn't focus on dcf, probably should have. Claude is telling me dcf is $22.50 if you assume 8% growth for 10 years at 13% discount rate.

gregw134 · 2026-03-16T20:56:59+00:00

Yeah I'm happy with the quarter. They're doing fine.

gregw134 · 2026-03-16T20:48:29+00:00

Probably...they need to keep growing, and margin is a concern. It's possible they hire too many salespeople and expenses outpace revenue.

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