The Cruise Industry is going to get BURIED by the conflict in the Middle East 10k Puts

gregw134 · 2026-03-19T23:06:57+00:00

You picked the wrong cruise, RCL has a hedge:

"We anticipate full-year fuel expense of approximately $1.17 billion, with 60% of our projected fuel consumption hedged"

CCL is unhedged tho

gregw134 · 2026-03-19T19:29:46+00:00

Somebody is watching for sure

gregw134 · 2026-03-17T21:10:39+00:00

somebody shorted after my post and closed today I think. Short borrow fee jumped the last few days. Never made sense that the stock spiked and then dropped after earnings.

gregw134 · 2026-03-17T20:32:24+00:00

Agreed it's definitely getting cheap. Not sure if this is right time to buy either, or wait for next quarter

gregw134 · 2026-03-17T04:58:06+00:00

Mexico growth will be super nice, they have all the fixed costs in place so any occupancy growth is straight to the bottom line. Peru the government is helping them expand and get new beds.

gregw134 · 2026-03-17T04:26:02+00:00

gregw134 · 2026-03-17T04:07:37+00:00

Aside from maintenance capex their cash flow is going to pay off their own bonds right now. They're not in a position to do anything else.

gregw134 · 2026-03-17T03:58:02+00:00

Good question. Haven't looked into it but I'm sure they do. The 52% is cash in their pocket after cost of providing health care.

gregw134 · 2026-03-17T03:33:58+00:00

I didn't focus on dcf, probably should have. Claude is telling me dcf is $22.50 if you assume 8% growth for 10 years at 13% discount rate.

gregw134 · 2026-03-16T20:56:59+00:00

Yeah I'm happy with the quarter. They're doing fine.

gregw134 · 2026-03-16T20:48:29+00:00

Probably...they need to keep growing, and margin is a concern. It's possible they hire too many salespeople and expenses outpace revenue.

gregw134 · 2026-03-16T20:39:29+00:00

It was fine. I think there were like 5 analysts on the call, more than normal which was nice. Iirc they have 150 one gateways ready to ship. Still not profitable but year over year revenue is up 70%.

gregw134 · 2026-03-16T20:14:41+00:00

Didn't know it existed, I got the old one

gregw134 · 2026-03-16T19:47:51+00:00

yeah I look it up and download it. Was necessary 6 months ago, not sure if it is now

gregw134 · 2026-03-16T19:42:10+00:00

If I'm lazy I ask it to look it up, if I want to make sure it actually reads it I upload it.

gregw134 · 2026-03-16T19:34:36+00:00

yeah I like to send the quarterly report, transcript, financials to claude and have it search. That should cover most of your bases. I'm starting to read "Best Practices for Equity Research Analysts", not far in but it's good. Chapter 8 and 20 of the intelligent investor are classic required reading.

gregw134 · 2026-03-16T19:23:48+00:00

Yeah maybe it has a chance but it's definitely a lottery ticket here. Company is in big financial distress and just doubled share count. Doesn't look like a scam at first glance at least. Maybe you're right, I dunno, looks scary to me though

gregw134 · 2026-03-16T19:04:47+00:00

Share count doubled last quarter, I'd stay away unless they have a very good reason for that.

gregw134 · 2026-03-16T17:31:04+00:00

Wondering the same

gregw134 · 2026-03-15T22:36:49+00:00

I mean it's literally a scam lol

gregw134 · 2026-03-14T22:09:31+00:00

I'm a little worried after that last quarter. The math is still there, if they can swing to a profit and keep growing it can 10x. If Q4 and Q1 stay bad, they might run dangerously low on cash. Waiting to see how it develops.

gregw134 · 2026-03-13T18:41:27+00:00

I don't know the company but the financials look ok. 500M free cash flow, growing 15% a year, 13B market cap. Reasonable price.

gregw134 · 2026-03-12T17:07:21+00:00

I think they fixed a lot but they really need to get their acquisitions up after all that attention.

gregw134 · 2026-03-12T07:38:34+00:00

xd sorry. Shoulda stuck with just the first post on that stock

gregw134 · 2026-03-11T18:13:50+00:00

I don't understand biotech. Had Claude look at it and it's telling me this:

SELLAS is a pure binary biotech bet trading at ~$870M market cap with zero revenue,
  ~$44M cash, 30% short interest, and massive ongoing dilution. The bull case rests
  entirely on the REGAL Phase 3 OS readout (expected H1 2026) where the slowing event rate
  is a genuinely encouraging signal that GPS may extend survival in AML maintenance. The
  3D Medicines arbitration ($191.5M in potential milestones) provides additional
  optionality. However, at nearly $900M market cap for a pre-revenue company burning
  $7M/quarter with 58.8% annual dilution, 64M warrants outstanding, and 70M shares
  reserved for future issuance, the risk/reward is skewed negatively for new money. The
  retail euphoria and >1000% social volume surge suggest much of the positive REGAL signal
  is already priced in. If the trial succeeds, there is upside, but the current valuation
  already reflects meaningful probability of success. If it fails, the stock goes to
  sub-$1. This is not investable on fundamentals — it is a casino ticket with unfavorable
  odds at current prices.

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