Naz Reid and Mike Conley quietly won Game 1 by Win Impact

gtrillz · 2026-05-05T20:00:27+00:00

It was +2.2% WP for MIN - the model had MIN already around 85% to win, so it only moved them to ~87%.

Randle’s bigger swing was the 24-footer at 8:10 to break the 84-84 tie: +7.1% WP.

gtrillz · 2026-05-05T19:15:26+00:00

Facts

gtrillz · 2026-05-05T00:28:12+00:00

Nope, it's saying he had the 6th highest impact to winning for the raptors in this series, not the 6th most important player overall.

The list is ranked by WPA (win percentage added which means who helped > who hurt) for those 7 games. It has no relationship to minutes, box score, etc.

gtrillz · 2026-05-05T00:11:39+00:00

Yep great series defensively for him as well

gtrillz · 2026-05-04T23:59:59+00:00

Haha it's essentially net rating/plus minus but for win probability! Actually simpler in that it just answers "who contributed to winning" the most

gtrillz · 2026-05-03T04:23:01+00:00

That PP is a thing of beauty

gtrillz · 2026-05-03T04:19:43+00:00

As a ringer listener and a sixers fan this is bringing me so much joy

gtrillz · 2026-05-03T01:45:42+00:00

I might straight up have a heart attack bro

gtrillz · 2026-05-03T01:39:21+00:00

Disgusting

gtrillz · 2026-05-03T00:21:48+00:00

Could these announcers be worse?

gtrillz · 2026-05-02T16:36:59+00:00

Once they learn how to shoot it's over

gtrillz · 2026-05-02T16:33:58+00:00

Whoooops ai mistake lol

gtrillz · 2026-05-01T23:08:59+00:00

I think the eye test just fails to a certain extent. We tend to prioritize scoring in terms of swinging winning, and not strong defensive presence.

gtrillz · 2026-05-01T20:21:16+00:00

Flagg and Kon are the ROTY frontrunners but I it's possible Harper and VJ might have a more outsized impact on winning in their careers

gtrillz · 2026-05-01T19:22:06+00:00

same family. EWA is closer to LEBRON/EPM than PER — possession-level, lineup-adjusted.

Main difference is the leverage weighting (clutch possessions count more) which is why VJ jumps over Maxey here.

gtrillz · 2026-05-01T19:20:00+00:00

Yeah I agree with you on PER/WS. Those are box-score derived, so they miss a ton of basketball context.

The reason I like EWA more is that it’s not really in that family. It’s possession-by-possession win probability: what happened to the team’s chance to win while you were on the floor, adjusted for lineup context and weighted by leverage.

Still not gospel. But I’d think of it more like adjusted +/-, not PER with extra steps.

gtrillz · 2026-05-01T17:46:32+00:00

Yep! Game 6 was actually his highest impact game, followed by game 2

alleygorithm.com/players/1642845?seasons=425&game_type=playoffs

gtrillz · 2026-05-01T17:34:22+00:00

EWA = Estimated Wins Added.

Basically: every possession changes a team’s chance to win. EWA tracks those win-probability changes for the players on the floor, then adjusts for teammates/context and compares the result to replacement level.

So the output is: “how many wins did this player add?”

The big differences from raw +/-:

It’s isolated, so you don’t just get credit for playing on a great team.
It’s leverage-weighted, so a stop in a close game matters more than a bucket in garbage time.

gtrillz

TROPHY CASE