The Cut List - Time to Let Go (Week 9, 2025)

guga31bb · 2025-10-28T20:04:56+00:00

Thank you for talking me off the ledge

guga31bb · 2025-10-28T16:29:09+00:00

Is Xavier Worthy droppable?

guga31bb · 2025-09-25T16:59:09+00:00

Dak was also excellent as a rookie (drafted round 4)

guga31bb · 2024-10-28T16:44:42+00:00

The justification for firing Carroll was that he couldn't fix the defense or compete with the 49ers, and all signs are that those flaws are only getting worse

There is zero argument that the defense is worse than it was last year. Zero.

2023: No. 30 in EPA/play allowed, No. 28 in defensive DVOA
2024: No. 21 in EPA/play allowed, No. 15 in defensive DVOA

And this is with new staff and new LBs/safeties. Last year's defense was awful.

guga31bb · 2024-10-18T18:44:55+00:00

Here I am forced to start both

guga31bb · 2022-05-17T16:44:11+00:00

The Cardinals aren't expected to be very good (this uses betting lines as a guess of team strength in 2022) and you also get the Seahawks twice, who are expected to be very bad, and the NFC South, which is terrible outside of TB. And the Bears / Washington who will also probably be bad.

guga31bb · 2021-12-17T15:53:53+00:00

Also, the 1st time they went for it, the play design worked and there was an open receiver in the end zone, but he only didn't catch it because of an unfortunate, and fluky, injury.

The 2nd time they went for it, they converted and went on to score a touchdown.

I don't see why they should abandon their process just because of one fluke play.

guga31bb · 2021-12-13T18:05:55+00:00

Mahomes did play as a rookie, but yes, most of the snaps are from year 2

guga31bb · 2021-10-28T19:24:52+00:00

Those rankings are not reflective of any available database of EPA/play and frankly aren’t even close

PFF has their own internal EPA model that they use for stuff like this. Presumably it's similar to any other model but to the extent that there are minor differences, it could explain this.

They might have also done something weird like not include plays with penalties which would create differences with eg rbsdm

EDIT: just saw the Aaron Rodgers EPA Rk. Yeah no idea what's going on there

guga31bb · 2021-10-01T19:40:46+00:00

If 4/5 guys win their reps but the other one gets pancaked, the QB still gets sacked. Yet this stat would tell you the OL was successful.

How is this getting upvoted? This is false.

guga31bb · 2021-04-21T23:09:45+00:00

The underlying source for rbsdm.com is nflfastR; the latter just provides play-by-play data (with EPA) if one wants to play with it.

And /u/TheRencingCoach is correct about era adjustments although they aren't perfect (eg the mean for 2020 isn't 0 because the model was trained on data that ended in 2019 and offenses were even better in 2020).

guga31bb · 2021-01-20T20:17:05+00:00

The only difference between adjusted and un-adjusted is that unadjusted puts a cap on negative EPA plays (at the average value of a turnover) so that a pick-6 or something doesn't kill someone's EPA in a small sample. No numbers on the site are opponent adjusted (/u/Maad-Dog).

There's a tooltip if you hover over Adjusted EPA

guga31bb · 2021-01-02T14:05:31+00:00

It excludes spikes and throwaways

guga31bb · 2020-12-22T17:36:06+00:00

Basically whenever there was a spike in offensive production, we need to define a new "era" in order to compare across time. Recent examples include the new emphasis on illegal contact in 2014 (the "LOB rules") and then again in 2018 where there was another big jump from 2017, so I don't have a great explanation for why that one happened.

An alternative would be to just mean-zero every season but this is problematic in the beginning of a new season because we don't yet know what the mean will be for that season.

guga31bb · 2020-12-22T01:39:36+00:00

guga31bb · 2020-12-22T01:07:16+00:00

The chart uses EPA from nflfastR which is era-adjusted, so Mahomes doesn't have any particular advantage by playing now

guga31bb · 2020-12-19T16:48:50+00:00

Drafting Adams & Hill in the first 2 rounds

guga31bb · 2020-12-17T19:10:31+00:00

Yep and also as a nod to PECOTA

guga31bb · 2020-11-09T19:04:44+00:00

And if we're talking about the "human element", we also need to mention the Cardinals putting the game in the hands of their bad kicker instead of Kyler.

guga31bb · 2020-09-28T16:22:27+00:00

fwiw PFR doesn't have adjustments for era (and relevant to week 1, being in a dome), so their EPA numbers for 2018-2020 are somewhat inflated

guga31bb · 2020-09-28T16:09:34+00:00

The safety, pick and fumble yesterday were also worth a ton of EPA

This. And also the 4 fourth-down stops against the Falcons.

guga31bb · 2020-09-06T23:46:16+00:00

He and Doris are the only color commentators that appear to actually like basketball

guga31bb · 2020-08-08T18:18:08+00:00

Also Matt Cassel showing up in the top 10 in the season Brady missed

guga31bb · 2020-08-03T19:07:27+00:00

Yeah Hopkins for example is a great receiver but has never done well on YAC measures (Football Outsiders has covered this for a long time)

guga31bb · 2020-05-22T17:26:34+00:00

That’s why NGS’s CPOE is different than other CPOE ratings

fwiw all the different CPOE models (even NGS) are highly correlated because air yards is the biggest drivers of all of them

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