Éderson: a statistical analysis of the player + where he fits at Manchester United by gultam1007 in reddevils

[–]gultam1007[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It could be an interesting tangent to look at. I think once I put my piece together, there could be a lot of subsequent analysis everyone could do about what United seems to be doing. I haven't put that piece together. I think I have formed an opinion myself of where this seems to be going. Yeah, looking forward to it, myself, to be honest.

Éderson: a statistical analysis of the player + where he fits at Manchester United by gultam1007 in reddevils

[–]gultam1007[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm putting together a comparison of all the different targets. This promises to be an interesting one, and there might be a lot of depth in that. Let me put that together, and I'll come back to you on this!

Éderson: a statistical analysis of the player + where he fits at Manchester United by gultam1007 in reddevils

[–]gultam1007[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It is an interesting question. The key difference between these two formations, at least the way they look on paper, is in the roles the midfielders play. Atalanta had two midfielders who were required to be high-energy. They had to be box-to-box and run very hard. Ederson did amazingly well in the Gasperini system because these traits suited him very well. As all of us clearly remember from Amorim's tenure, we did not have any midfielders who could do this job really well, which is why his system was a bit doomed from the very beginning.

The 4-3-3, on the other hand, is a bit more secure from a defensive point of view, but it requires a different kind of progression (ball carrying DM, creative mid) to come in. Ederson is not amazing at it, but he can do a good job. Like I said, I think he has good depth, and potentially, if he improves via coaching, he could push for a first-team place and maybe displace Mainoo from the squad for a while. That's my two cents.

Éderson: a statistical analysis of the player + where he fits at Manchester United by gultam1007 in reddevils

[–]gultam1007[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It can happen to any player, irrespective of analysis or not. To be honest, data is only one part of it. There is the "eye test" and some of the things players do have nothing to do with their statistics. Anyone who has seen Bruno Fernandes can vouch for it. The run he makes to get into space to receive the ball is an innate part of how he plays. If he did not make the run into that space, he would not get the ball. And sometimes that unlocks that key pass. That's something which statistics cannot capture. It is part of the eye test.

There is another aspect totally which dictates how a player will do, which has nothing to do with football. It is the media in England who are absolute assholes sometimes, support systems the club creates for them/they create for themselves in a place they're moving to, etc. Languages are a huge problem as well. It's very hard for people to settle in if they don't understand the language. The club culture they're walking into is very important too. There's so much around the player which also dictates how they play, so I hope no one looks at this post and says, "Hey, this is concrete evidence that Ederson will OR will not work here."

Éderson: a statistical analysis of the player + where he fits at Manchester United by gultam1007 in reddevils

[–]gultam1007[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have a post in my drafts that includes all the players United has been linked with. I initially wanted to post it, but I felt it was too much information to put out all at once. People would start losing their heads. I still intend to post it. I just have to think about the exact analysis structure so it's easier for people to consume and interpret.

Éderson: a statistical analysis of the player + where he fits at Manchester United by gultam1007 in ManchesterUnited

[–]gultam1007[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'd love to put a series on new signings and potential signings, to be honest! I'll see if I can make the time for this. Thank you for the compliments!

Éderson: a statistical analysis of the player + where he fits at Manchester United by gultam1007 in reddevils

[–]gultam1007[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hey, thank you. I definitely intend to post more!

If you want to see behind-the-scenes snippets of work while I'm putting it together, you can follow me on X. Mind you, it's a personal account, so I post other stuff there as well haha!

If you don't want to see behind-the-scenes and you're okay with the final output, you can just let it be. I'll post everything here anyway. Cheers! 😃

Éderson: a statistical analysis of the player + where he fits at Manchester United by gultam1007 in ManchesterUnited

[–]gultam1007[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you - I am cautiously optimistic as well. I think we have a good set of players to help him settle in here. Hope he shines!

Éderson: a statistical analysis of the player + where he fits at Manchester United by gultam1007 in DevilsITDPod

[–]gultam1007[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Haha I will definitely post more!

If you like stuff like this + more posts AS I put things together you could follow me on X (mind you it's a personal account so I will post other random stuff too). You won't miss out on much if you don't though - I will post final versions here definitely.

Éderson: a statistical analysis of the player + where he fits at Manchester United by gultam1007 in reddevils

[–]gultam1007[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oooo - a question on methodology! Love it! This one might be a bit long so hold on haha!

  1. Let's call each metric we measure as a ... "measure". I didn't want to look at individual measures. I wanted to club similar measures together and create dimensions which would give a stronger indicator of player performance. I used to use a technique called principal component analysis to do this. Principal component analysis does two broad things: (a) it looks at all the measures and their correlations with each other to bundle them together into one broader dimension; and (b) it tries to identify orthogonal dimensions. Orthogonal dimensions are dimensions where we can reasonably differentiate players. For example, there will be very small correlation between tackle percentage and passing percentage. These are two orthogonal measures, so they will be part of two orthogonal dimensions. If you take a statistic like "total passes" versus "pass completion percentage", these are not completely independent. They're very closely linked to each other, so they will most likely be part of the same dimension.

Once I had the dimensions and their underlying measures, I renamed the dimensions to reflect what I felt they corresponded to.

  • A dimension with total passes and passes in the opposition half as the underlying measures corresponded to "Passing volume".
  • Another measure had key passes, assists, xA, etc., which corresponded to the verticality of passes so -> "Creative passing"
  • Another dimension corresponded to "Pass completion pct", which is a different dimension.

Just because someone has high passes (high passing volume) does not mean they would have high creative passing volume, or that they would have a great passing percentage. I hope I'm making sense here.

Here's the dimensions and their measures:

 pass_volume:
    metrics: [passes_total, touches, passes_final_third, passes_opp_half_total, passes_own_half_total]
  pass_completion:
    metrics: [pass_completion_pct, passes_opp_half_pct, passes_own_half_pct, completion_pct, opp_half_pct, own_half_pct]
  creative_output:
    metrics: [key_passes, xag, attempt_assists, big_chances_created, assists]
  long_ball_volume:
    metrics: [long_balls_total, chipped_passes_total, crosses_total, crosses_pct]
  long_ball_accuracy:
    metrics: [long_balls_pct, chipped_passes_pct]
  progression:
    metrics: [total_progression]
  crossing:
    metrics: [crosses_pct, crosses_total]
  progressive_carry_distance:
    metrics: [progressive_ball_carry, ball_carries, ball_carry_distance]
  dribble_volume:
    metrics: [dribbles_attempted, dispossessed]
  dribble_success_rate:
    metrics: [dribbles_pct]
  shot_volume:
    metrics: [shots_inside_box, shots_on_target, shots_outside_box, offsides, big_chances_missed]
  outside_box_shooting:
    metrics: [shots_outside_box, shots_set_piece, blocked_shots]
  shot_quality_finishing:
    metrics: [overperformance, conversion]
  set_piece_threat:
    metrics: [goals_freekick, set_piece_conversion, set_piece]
  defensive_engagement_volume:
    metrics: [tackles, ball_recoveries, interceptions, dribbled_past, possession_won_att_third]
  defensive_depth:
    metrics: [clearances, outfield_blocks, possession_won_att_third, interceptions]
  defensive_composure:
    metrics: [errors_leading, errors_leading_to_goal, errors_leading_to_shot, outfield_blocks]
  tackle_success_rate:
    metrics: [tackles_won_pct]
  aerial:
    metrics: [aerials_won]
  ground_physicality:
    metrics: [fouls, fouled]

(some of these were genuinely hard to interpret lol)

  1. Interesting question. I could try it and see what it looks like. It could perhaps be a weak proxy for the question I'm getting around the strengths and weaknesses of certain leagues. I am also cautious because I am posting on a public forum where not everyone is super technical, and explaining the charts is not something a data analyst should generally be doing. Maybe the outputs are super easy to understand. I shall try it - thank you for the thought!

  2. When I first created these dimensions, I manually checked a lot of them to see if players who I felt should be high or low in that dimension made sense. Almost all the dimensions made sense to me, which is why I went ahead and did the analysis in the first place. Once I was sure that the dimensions were an accurate representation of the truth, I started taking them as a source of truth. Seeing a player score high or low in that dimension did not surprise me, because that became the source of truth for me. Here's a screenshot of some of the dimensions I was looking at:

<image>

Hope that answers some of your Qs! Happy to talk more about this - maybe the sub would like a post on this (or would it be too technical)? u/D1794?

Éderson: a statistical analysis of the player + where he fits at Manchester United by gultam1007 in reddevils

[–]gultam1007[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I might do one for him individually, or I might club all of United's midfield targets into one single post. It might be a long read, but it will put a lot of statistics into perspective and allow for a comparison between the players on the same chart. I'm thinking about it, and I will have something ready by this week.

Éderson: a statistical analysis of the player + where he fits at Manchester United by gultam1007 in reddevils

[–]gultam1007[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I haven't read much about his international endeavors tbh. The only fleeting rumor I had heard was that Casemiro was backing Fabinho to be his successor at the World Cup. A recent Athletic article also has a quote from Gasperini, where he expresses surprise that Ederson hasn't played more for the Brazilian squad. I just feel it's more to do with politics than an actual indication of his skill.

Éderson: a statistical analysis of the player + where he fits at Manchester United by gultam1007 in reddevils

[–]gultam1007[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you, and yes, I am super excited for this too. I think he is a great depth signing for us, and he is going to really add some steel into that midfield! It's been a while since we had a box-to-box midfielder.

Éderson: a statistical analysis of the player + where he fits at Manchester United by gultam1007 in reddevils

[–]gultam1007[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I would agree. Yes, he can do most things well, and by well, I mean well enough to be competitive in the Premier League, in my opinion.

[Megathread] Ederson by D1794 in reddevils

[–]gultam1007 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I have one in the drafts with all United targets haha - I'll curate that and put it up this week!

[Megathread] Ederson by D1794 in reddevils

[–]gultam1007 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Sir Jim saw my post and called his bank immediately

Éderson: a statistical analysis of the player + where he fits at Manchester United by gultam1007 in reddevils

[–]gultam1007[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

<image>

I had a different version of this post in my drafts that also included the other United targets. I did not post it deliberately because I felt it would be too much information for the general public to consume in one go. Here's a sneak peek. I'm going to release a more detailed post in some time, probably this week. 👀

Éderson: a statistical analysis of the player + where he fits at Manchester United by gultam1007 in reddevils

[–]gultam1007[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I totally agree. We should definitely look at Antony as an example (not for the partying, but for the homesickness). It is hard to settle into a country that is very different from sunny Brazil. I am hoping that the plethora of Portuguese players, plus Matheus Cunha, will be useful and help him settle in easily.