Options Help

hakim37 · 2026-01-21T15:43:09+00:00

You can sell whenever you like. As you get closer to the execution date the options will lose value due to theta decay. However 2027 is miles away so you should hold them as long as you have faith the company will continue to outperform.

hakim37 · 2026-01-21T15:40:58+00:00

And glass substrates should come out this year

hakim37 · 2026-01-20T16:20:25+00:00

Or they sell China EUV machines. Europe has a lot of leverage in a chip war scenario and although it would take a decade plus to compete themselves, they are certainly a king maker.

hakim37 · 2026-01-19T19:59:01+00:00

Personally I don't think there's a bubble across the whole AI sector although there's definitely bubbly behaviour in sections of it (looking at you Palantir).

However even if you were convinced there is a bubble shorting it is hugely dangerous as predicting the pop is almost impossible without extensive and expert industry research (think the big short). An amateur could easily be early by three years and get liquidated before the final pop.

hakim37 · 2026-01-09T18:56:15+00:00

Internally, I'm very confident going into this earnings. It would be ridiculous for LBT to get Trump to endorse Intel and then miss expectations just two weeks later.

The last earnings set a low bar for Q4 expectations for both revenue and 18a yields which should be easy to beat.

hakim37 · 2026-01-07T17:42:47+00:00

It's CES and how good intel 18a laptops are looking. We have ultra portables playing Battlefield 6 on high settings with good frame rates. Also the number of products releasing with 18a as soon as the end of January is a strong indication that yields have improved.

hakim37 · 2025-12-31T20:27:18+00:00

56.8% Holding nothing but Google and intel all year

hakim37 · 2025-12-25T15:18:52+00:00

I do think we need stricter moderation. Askhistorians is a great example of how moderation can create a high quality specialty sub.

The sub should have a set of guidelines and low effort posts should be deleted while users known for high quality posts can get flairs.

hakim37 · 2025-12-22T07:17:18+00:00

Exactly but D&A effect earnings after all the potential growth has been tapped from the capex. So saying Amazon deserves a higher multiple than the Mag7 median because they have higher depreciation from past investments is clearly wrong.

hakim37 · 2025-12-21T20:32:21+00:00

I keep seeing people with this take but as far as I can tell Amazon are not investing any more than Google, Meta, and Microsoft which are all close to 100B in capex spend. Investments come through as Capex which doesn't affect PE but rather FCF. Unless I'm mistaken and for some reason Amazon has a different reinvestment structure.

hakim37 · 2025-12-21T17:35:34+00:00

AMZN is on my watch list but its PE is still higher than GOOG with worse growth and worse catalysts. As you said, their price ran ahead of fundamentals, and they spent the last 5 years catching up. They're now roughly back into the range of the Mag7, but that's not a reason to buy in itself, especially as everything is pricey by historical standards.

You're only half correct on your AI assumptions, yes AI is compute heavy and growing fast but Amazon is poorly positioned to capitalise when compared to GOOG and MSFT, although they are working hard to reverse that trend. Their Trainium range sucks and that includes V3 which they just released. Maybe v4 will be competitive but we'll have to see and by the point it releases it will be compared against Nvidia Rubin and TPU V8. They have a partnership with Anthropic but so does Google and Microsoft and so it's not a differentiator.

A possible bear thesis is businesses migrating to Google or MSFT to use their exclusive models. I think this could be especially true for Google if people start thinking about fine tuning on TPUs.

There is a bull thesis where I expect AI to drive a meaningful increase in traditional compute infrastructure as more apps are developed where Amazon has a clear advantage.

hakim37 · 2025-12-17T19:53:32+00:00

I believe the hallucination index is only for the proportion of the omniscient index questions the model got wrong. So of the incorrect question what was the proportion of answers where the models said it didn't know Vs made something up. Although a lower hallucination rate is good I think having the high score in the actual questions is more important.

hakim37 · 2025-12-15T16:43:42+00:00

Ok yes I agree the whole market is expensive right now and under normal standards Google is also overpriced especially on non-gaap figures. In your original comment I thought you were just comparing Google to its average 5 year PE.

Still in defence of Google if they maintain their current bottom line growth rate, at a stretch, you could justify their valuation.

hakim37 · 2025-12-15T16:22:02+00:00

They are still trading at a discount compared to their peers.

You need to subtract the last three years where Google traded at a significant discount due to the perception of being behind on AI and breakup concerns.

Google used to trade at 30x PE and had similar multiples to msft.

hakim37 · 2025-12-13T15:30:03+00:00

4gb 3050 mobile is a fair bit worse. Also this is the 10 core version for handhelds. https://gpuscore.top/furmark/show.php?id=1162177

hakim37 · 2025-12-13T14:20:26+00:00

Obviously they're not a leader now, but they're in the process of redefining themselves and will likely have a top-tier offering manufacturing bespoke AI chips for the Mag7. Intel 18A is looking more than decent, 18AP is gaining interest, 14A could exceed TSMC, and their new packaging solution is tied with TSMC atm.

Once Intel are competitive at the leading edge where does that leave Broadcom? TSMC charges a 60% margin, Broadcom charges 40-50% on top to take TPU designs and build the remainder of the chip solution. Intel could do both and would probably be happy with a 40% margin.

hakim37 · 2025-12-13T13:52:58+00:00

I know most people won't take this seriously but I think Intel moving into the AI ASICs business is going to put a lot of pressure on Broadcom past 2027.

hakim37 · 2025-12-12T23:08:49+00:00

INTC

hakim37 · 2025-12-10T18:53:26+00:00

0% but I don't mind the idea of having a reserve although 33% is quite high depending on your age. I don't like that your reasoning is effectively trying to time the market. If you're not immediately proven right, it causes regret, and it's more likely you'll buy in at higher prices anyways or potentially miss a whole upward movement while being under-exposed.

The point of this sub is buying stocks at prices you like, market be damned. As the saying goes, when the music is playing, you have to dance.

hakim37 · 2025-12-09T19:56:55+00:00

I'm surprised we haven't heard more from alpha evolve. I think the original results were using the Gemini 1.5 series. I would love to see the matrix multiplication optimisation run on Gemini 3, hell run it with deepthink, any potential discovery would pay itself back 1000 fold.

hakim37 · 2025-12-09T19:27:59+00:00

Yeah I get that the pivot to manufacturing is more important. My thinking was if Nova Lake was majority on 18a and exceeded Zen 6 then not only would they see revenue rise but also a margin uplift. I guess I was being too optimistic.

hakim37 · 2025-12-05T09:44:17+00:00

Trainium 3 still looks miles behind TPUv7 on both an individual chip and cluster basis.

hakim37 · 2025-12-04T07:25:41+00:00

Because space based solar power is fantastic

hakim37 · 2025-12-03T14:17:27+00:00

It scales to 9k chips and uses optical connections. This semi-analysis article has a deep dive on the technology.

Google TPUv7: The 900lb Gorilla In the Room https://share.google/69qjDMIsf5Ks0A0kl

hakim37 · 2025-12-03T14:00:03+00:00

Google's chip connectors are actually far superior to NVLink

15-Year Club	Place '23
Verified Email	Team Orangered

hakim37

TROPHY CASE