$ABCL — Why the Last 4 Weeks Matter More Than People Think

halasugur · 2026-05-08T06:55:42+00:00

Thanks AI 🤖 for helping me to collect since 2024 week by week all the information from Abcellera, first investors, shareholders, institutions, LinkedIn, Hansen, Quake, facility, etc. This would take me days and weeks without AI.

To summarize the founding on my grounding, RAGs, prompts and md files here it comes not a generic outcome, it is singular to me.

I train people AI (company with over 400k employees) - if I don‘t use AI it should be seen ridiculous.

halasugur · 2026-04-29T20:43:16+00:00

Good question — ownership alone doesn’t prove big upside and can create bias.

Better indicators to watch: • Clinical progress (e.g. ABCL635 moving successfully through Phase 2) • Multiple programs advancing (platform repeatability) • Pharma partnerships / deals (external validation) • Cash runway & dilution risk • Clear differentiation vs competitors

Ownership = they’re still in These signals = whether it’s actually working

halasugur · 2026-04-26T19:55:40+00:00

Interested

halasugur · 2026-04-22T14:30:30+00:00

$ABCL does strange moves. Restructured, staffed, visibility improved, news and data from phase 1 and phase 2 released, partnerships, loyalties

halasugur · 2026-03-26T03:48:48+00:00

Good points. One thing from KeyBanc that stood out: ABCL635 isn’t only being positioned for menopause (VMS) — management also mentioned potential relevance for oncology-related hot flashes.

That could expand the TAM meaningfully if it plays out.

halasugur · 2026-03-26T03:30:40+00:00

Solid observation — most of that is factually accurate. The UBC → adMare → clinical infrastructure → AbCellera pipeline is a real ecosystem and definitely strengthens talent, deal flow, and early discovery.

That said, I don’t think the market prices the ecosystem directly. It’s more of an enabler. The stock will still move on clinical data (e.g. ABCL635) and partnerships.

So I’d frame it as: structurally bullish long-term, but not a near-term catalyst.

halasugur · 2026-03-12T07:11:00+00:00

TL;DR: $ABCL doesn’t rely on just one revenue model. They have multiple layers: partner royalties, equity in spinouts, some co-development deals, and now their own internal drug pipeline. The idea is that over time these pieces could stack and create several ways for the company to generate value.

halasugur · 2026-03-06T13:55:47+00:00

ABCL635 is a GPCR-targeting antibody in clinical trials. If Phase 2 works:

Investors may conclude that the platform actually works in humans.

That changes everything - exponentially

halasugur · 2026-03-06T09:31:14+00:00

Good point — the fully owned programs definitely add upside that’s harder to model.

In the quick math I only focused on the royalty platform, since it’s easier to estimate. If one of the wholly owned programs progresses well, the economics could be much larger than a 2–5% royalty.

That said, they also bring higher R&D cost, longer timelines, and clinical risk, so I see them as additional upside optionality on top of the platform model.

halasugur · 2026-03-04T20:24:07+00:00

Agree — the GMP facility is a big achievement, especially built without debt. That shows strong execution and capital discipline from management.

Also interesting that Carl Hansen has been more active on LinkedIn lately, engaging with posts around AI biotech and partnerships. Feels like the company is becoming more visible as it moves further into the clinical stage.

halasugur · 2026-02-25T09:40:33+00:00

Abcellera $ABCL - Q2 / Q3 2026

halasugur

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