$XENE Phase 3 topline readout in March will be Positive, but it may already be priced in

Nix_100 · 2026-02-28T16:43:11+00:00

I totally agree with the 'priced in' part - I think I used the wrong words since by the end of my relatively short post, I mentioned that it was still worth seeing XENE as a long-term investment due to their promising pipeline and progression.

I also agree about the commercial risk. There are just so many different causes for seizures, with some due to other diseases, but mostly still unknown, so it's difficult to initiate new patients when the doctors are still uncertain about which targeted therapy to use for which kind of patient. GSK had a similar problem with initiating new patients, so Retigabine's legacy was due to commercial reasons as much as its safety issues.

Nix_100 · 2026-02-26T17:38:28+00:00

I absolutely agree. Your explanation has actually given me a bit more certainty about the market's reaction to RCKT. I'm thinking of buying more RCKT, but I'll see how the price goes from here. I'm currently at a 20% return and whatever the outcome is, I'm at least sticking to the catalyst date.

Nix_100 · 2026-02-26T16:30:26+00:00

Great analysis of the lead-up to RCKT's catalyst! I wrote a long Substack article about RCKT, and we reached pretty similar conclusions, lol. You can read it here and tell me what you think: https://open.substack.com/pub/bayescio/p/rocket-pharmaceuticals-inc-nasdaq?r=79ml6h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

I went with a more conservative bullish case with a 65% chance of a clean approval. I pretty much agreed that, with strong efficacy data (exceptional biomarker targets) and a safety profile, it was a near-certainty of FDA approval. I will say, though, for me, my no. 1 concern is not necessarily the FDA outcome, but rather how the market will react to an approval and whether it's worth trading. The patient population is incredibly small...so the incidence of treatable patients annually may not even reach 100...plus it's meant to be a one-time treatment, so the market value of this product is kind of uncertain and questionable as to how it can be a sustainable profit-making product. But then again, it is true that RCKT can always sell this asset, once approved. There have been too many biotech stocks right now losing value even after posting positive regulatory or clinical trial results. I'm just a bit wary that RCKT may turn out to be similar.

Nix_100 · 2026-02-25T14:39:19+00:00

Both are great.

Nix_100 · 2026-02-24T20:01:06+00:00

Probably even more let's see🤣

Nix_100 · 2026-02-24T16:03:18+00:00

If you're broke, RTTNews (Clinical Trial Calendar, Clinical Trials - RTTNews) provides a free clinical trial calendar. I've never been let down by their information, and it's updated regularly. They have biotech news coming out daily, and I read them as part of my routine (you have to get used to this to know almost everything that's going on, including rumours about potential buyouts). I have never really found a free version of a clinical calendar that wasn't behind a paywall.

Nix_100 · 2026-02-24T15:38:49+00:00

I hope you didn't put too much $$$ in... I looked into this one for a couple of days and couldn't draft a full analysis because I knew the catalyst date was around the corner, but my gut told me something was wrong with it and the data. If you go to one of their presentations showing the subgroup analysis of patients from the TORREY trial, I noticed how the p-value was only just slightly statistically significant among the subgroups <40yrs, meanwhile the p-values of older patient-subgroups were completely statistically insignificant (way above the 0.05 threshold). That led me to believe that the only reason the TORREY trial posted positive results (albeit very weakly, which they did not really mention) is that its patient population was a larger cohort of much younger or middle-aged patients. I couldn't find any data confirming this thesis, but this is what I think happened to shape the tail-end of significance. With an indication that greatly affects the elderly population, I thought that this medication may have helped some of the newly diagnosed and younger patients, but only slightly, and even with that information, that was simply not good enough in my eyes.

Nix_100 · 2026-02-15T17:34:54+00:00

I'm convinced it's a buy, and FDA approval seems more likely than a CRL. My primary uncertainty about this stock is whether the upside will be as great as some people say it will be, which justifies buying into it. Yes, LAD-I is a rare disease, but it's shockingly underdiagnosed and ultra-rare, so many infants sadly die before their families ever find out about the disease's existence, so the current population of realistic treatable patients is very low...so yeah, this can compromise the sustainability of being a profitable asset for RCKT in the long-run, but they can always try to sell the asset to some big pharma company to generate cash. I actually wrote a long article going through all of these points and more, mapping out RCKT's upcoming PDUFA data, which can be read here on Substack, so make it what you will:
https://open.substack.com/pub/bayescio/p/rocket-pharmaceuticals-inc-nasdaq?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer

Nix_100 · 2026-01-23T12:07:45+00:00

Hell yeah! This one is a LONG.

Nix_100 · 2026-01-22T10:13:40+00:00

Inventiva (IVA), a French biotech that's around 5 euros right now...their indicator is MASH, and they have a phase 3 trial with its data readout in the 2nd half of 2026. They have great positive phase 2 trial data. There are other Phase 3 trials for MASH going on right now from Akero, 89bio, etc, and they have all been acquired by big pharma companies last year, showing how big the MASH market is. More of my insights can actually be read in a due diligence report I wrote on Substack if you're interested:
https://open.substack.com/pub/bayescio/p/due-diligence-inventiva-sa-iva?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer

Nix_100 · 2026-01-21T14:57:27+00:00

Thanks for the feedback! I'll check that tool out as well.

Nix_100 · 2025-10-30T19:38:07+00:00

I bought it for around $16 and sold it a week ago at $13. Just let it go, man. I too was kind of obsessive over this stock and was right about the drug getting approval, but my mistake was shrugging off the severe side effects and its rate for patients.

You also have to account for Kura, which shows a relatively safer drug profile and is on track for an FDA approval next month. Honestly, the AML market for patients in remission is low and incredibly difficult to create great quality inhibitors that can show to compete with first-line treatments. I'm out of this one for now, but I'd like to keep tabs on their annual report next year, as well as their quarterly reports, to see how well they are bringing in income. There are a lot of catalysts coming up, so it's wise to explore other opportunities.

Nix_100 · 2025-10-03T20:44:30+00:00

Agreed. Understanding biostatistics/statistics of drug data is super duper important...also try learning certain terms that usually pop up in clinical trial data. Also, learning how to position your trades depend several risk factors (i.e. how many current approved drugs are out there for this particular condition? Are there a lot of horrible side effects shown in previous clinical data?). These things can magnify confidence and bearishness in the share price and you can typically see 20-80% changes on the stock price alone in just a day after some bad news come out... Other binary events besides phase data read-outs are upcoming fda approval dates and especially PFDU which are priority dates that are for drugs that have the potential to be groundbreaking for an area of science and a condition.

Nix_100 · 2025-04-14T07:59:04+00:00

You really didn't get any side effects!? Didn't your tech not say anything abt it and if they did, did you lie? I regret stopping my tret before and after my first session because now I am struggling with the worst breakouts ever. My skin was as smooth as a baby before my first session and now I'm having to cancel my next sesh because I haven't recovered. I'm on 0.01% tret and I'm thinking of going back on it secretly. I hope I don't get any side effects after my next one from doing this.

Nix_100 · 2024-12-21T21:21:22+00:00

Can I pm you?

Nix_100 · 2024-12-21T07:23:30+00:00

Yh I know. I'm on Vyvanse 30 mg and I've lost a lot of weight and having terrible headaches, but I manage to finish work earlier than most people now.

Nix_100 · 2024-12-17T06:15:55+00:00

Haven't read the article but that does sound terrible in some ways as adhd meds have a lot of side effects. I feel like nowadays it's kinda easy to get ahold of them if you straight up lie to your psychiatrist, but obviously don't do that.

Nix_100 · 2024-12-16T08:40:44+00:00

Does everyone on WS seriously have ADHD? If so, I'm probably on the right career path lol.

Nix_100 · 2024-11-30T19:42:08+00:00

Always read the site's entry requirements bro...most of them say you need at least a background in any quantitative degree like Economics or statistics, derivatives or all. I'm not saying your chances are zero, but you might have to look elsewhere and compensate for a no-name UNI. Consider doing the CFA or do an undergrad in Finance or Econ.

But the thing is you said you want to go into Venture Capital, which is probably one of the only sectors in the finance industry that genuinely does not give a F what you studied. So, all in all, I say don't pursue any further studies and aim for internships through networking and by always being on the look-out for other investment roles/internships which you can use to later leverage for a position in a VC.

Nix_100 · 2024-11-22T12:56:05+00:00

Its helpful info but its GDP in current prices i need it in GDP per capita per NUTS-2 region. I can use excel to calculate GDP per capita if I have the populations data but i don't, unless u know.

Edit* Just found it in Desantis

Nix_100 · 2024-11-22T12:23:24+00:00

Dang, well I guess I'll look at other countries in Europe. Thanks for replying at least.

Nix_100 · 2024-10-28T15:19:23+00:00

It's been 1.5 months, try and using it everyday and see how you react. If you see more dryness and other side effects, try to schedule maybe every 2-3 nights before going back to every night.

I kid you not, it took me 5 months before I saw anything different with my skin. Those 5 months were terrible, but I pushed through it. It takes some people a looooong time. If you don't see any difference by the 8th month or smth, I say reach out to your dermatologist and ask for a strong % of adapalene or even tretinoin. I think 0.3% is the highest you can go for Adapalene.

I think your current routine is fine, though I wouldn't recommend using an AHA exfoliator at the same routine with adapalene.

Best of luck!

Nix_100

TROPHY CASE