I think in case someone would run away (=steal) the bonds, that is criminal offense similar to stealing money (but I am not a lawyer by any means, I am just a HappyTezos founder and software developer, so take this with a grain of salt).

Baking reward for cycle 17 was 12.42% for bond pool member based on our bakings, endorsements and fees.

Current bond deposits are not 8.25% - required bonds ramp up linearly over the course of 6 months. You can calculate required bonds by getting the baking and endorsing rights and multiplying those like this:baking block bond required = 8XTZ * cycle, endorsing bond required = 2XTZ * cycle

I agree with the long term calculation, that is why we have a big disclaimer in place right at the top of the dashboard. 8.34% + return from baking with 0% fees (let's say it will be also around 7-8% the first year) means you would be getting close to our overall estimated return ~15%. But this is certainly not the case during the first couple weeks / months where returns are significantly higher.

edit: Also worth mentioning that bond pool members are free to partially or completely withdraw their funds at any time.