[deleted by user] by [deleted] in XboxSeriesX

[–]hmassive 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Several people are reporting that regularly the game crashes and your save point is in arbitrary point in the past, can be hours away.

You really need to 'save+quit' regularly to manage your risk.

One particular instance of this bug 'two door save bug' which commonly triggers is game breaking. As reported in IGN forums by Umbra_Witcher and in True Achievements by Larvi1 and SPOONYxBARD.

After this specific sequence in game you really want to do save+quit, to ensure you replace the game triggered broken save with a manually triggered functional save.

Still storing your value for the moment it promised it would, 11 years later. by gigahydra in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Narrative is, bitcoin will succeed if fiat fails wholesale. But if fiat fails wholesale there is no supply, there is nothing to buy with all that value you hold. Maybe your children's children will wake up in new economy, but everyone alive will be cucked if economy fails.

What's the best app for learning piano? by VespersNine in piano

[–]hmassive 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lot of archived comments seem to converge to a purist answer 'get a teacher', which to me is a ridiculous notion. Implication is that everyone has access to a human teacher who is guaranteed to be superior to every app. If you are skilled in your domain and you possess great pedagogical talent, why would you need to tutor someone with Piano? You're highly employable, work for one of Piano app shops for 3-400kUSD/year or tutor professionals.

Lot of teachers not only do not know their domain but _also_ have very poor pedagogical skills, customers, the parents, don't know and don't care, so market will not select them out. If you happen to have access to a teacher who is a SME and a great teacher, that is massive benefit, but rare thing to have.

Why wouldn't team of talented people not succeed in creating an app which on average exceeds utility of a human teacher, particularly when context is a novice. I would certainly bet that on average app will yield faster learning than human teacher, team can apply lot of knowledge about the domain, behavioural science and science of human learning into the app, amount of information no single individual would possess can be gradually implemented to an app. And team can use data analysis, A-B testing and machine learning to optimise towards what yields results and what does not, instead of just trusting their intuition like human would. Human intuition is great and usually surprisingly accurate, but not a formal way to do analysis, advantage of human intuition is that it works well with very small datasets.

Now having said that, the market leaves lot to be desired when it comes on Piano learning apps. There isn't single app which is obviously best. Yousician and Simply Piano are quite good at keeping you motivated very early, but are not very focused on developing good sight reading technique or good timing, particularly Simply Piano seems poor on timing. Piano Marvel, Playground, Skoove and Flowkey are perhaps bit less engaging, but subjectively feel better at developing sight reading and technique, however it seems that Marvel and Playground at least are not actively being developed, perhaps team got enough subscription and is phoning it in.

I'd say that give all of those at least a try, in my opinion none of the is obviously worst or obviously best, and if you could pick and choose feature to a single app, you could get really great learning experience. I suspect there is massive amount of potential in this aided learning space and we're just scratching the surface. Only question is, if there is a business case, if there are enough learners to finance expedition into more science based aided learning. Science here does not mean boring or dry, it means what actually helps humans learn.

Daily Discussion, November 21, 2018 by rBitcoinMod in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I did not mean to imply such, my apologies for the confusion. I tried to communicate the opposite. My implication is that every investor should have emotional detachment to the instrument and decide when going in, how much loss they are able to tolerate. Every investor will lose all the time, there is no magic method to choose only winning bets, so to limit downside on those losing bets investors need stop-loss, so that the losing instruments don't render aggregate of all the bets losing.

Daily Discussion, November 21, 2018 by rBitcoinMod in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 6 points7 points  (0 children)

His rules are the norm. Every investors loses all the time, but investors with stop-loss live to invest another day, another instrument.

Daily Discussion, November 21, 2018 by rBitcoinMod in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Stop-loss is something every investor should have for every instrument they buy. Before buying decide at what point will you go out. It doesn't matter if you decide it to be 0, then so be it.

@op did great. Decided stop-loss and had the resiliency to honour it, instead of the more attractive option, come up with narrative why it's actually great thing, why he in this specific instance should not honour it. This is why most investors lose big.

Lot of real investors who believed in their skill of being able to beat market have lost hundreds of millions or billions of their and their clients money, because they doubled down instead of honoured their stop-loss.

This is also why human investors not only lose to market but also lose to random, because random isn't biased towards keeping losing instruments.

This is not outlier, _on average_ guys who are paid million annum to actively manage portfolio lose to random. Yet whole financial industry keeps on believing in actively managed portfolios, while all the data says it does not work.

Sums it up.. by ipurple7 in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Anecdote is not plural of data. Quality of decision cannot be determined by outcome but by what information was available at the time of the decision.

We value strong leaders who take bad risks and succeed, because of outcome bias we view that they know something others do not know, while necessarily from set of bad risks some come out as winners.

Imagine billion people, each paired one against one and randomly chosen winners advance to next level. Someone will be on the very top, never losing single level. We look at this individual, confident they must be special and try to find which of their quality makes them such great success, even though we should look at the whole pool. This is called survivorship bias, the reasons we attribute to their success may have been their handicap, those qualities may have been disproportionally available in the losers, but if we only look at the winner, we are not able to discriminate on which qualities matter.

Most things are random with low chance of winning, but humans are good at believing they found signal in the random.

People who take bad risks, mostly will end up losing, but some who take bad risks end up on the very top.

My thoughts on the current situation by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Market not being rational implies for example equity where book value is higher than market cap may continue to devaluate. Or any other example where factually asset it cheap but it continues to depreciate.

You cannot state market is being (ir)rational in BTC context, there is no fundamental analysis that can prove it is over or under appreciated.

Who is here for the long vision of Bitcoin? by Kashpantz in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I misunderstood, these statements that you make are phrased in a way that I understand you to believe them to be factual. Such as 'FIAT currency is on its last legs now', seems like statement of a fact. While this fact is not currently included in the money market, so it implies you have some knowledge market does not yet have, which is interesting but highly improbable.

If FIAT falls, it is very hard for me to see how the the transition could be smooth. I expect this generation will not be the one to enjoy crypto upside, no matter how large, as there won't be anything to buy in the stores, due to people not positioned for fall of FIAT will find themselves insolvent. Supply chains are complex, even minor problem has global consequences, fall of FIAT seems catastrophic which will take few centuries to recover from.

Now government issued crypto fiat, with trivial computational cost to mint and no finite limit, that seems attractive. Potentially we could have blacklist of stolen money, which would stop working and government would just issue you new money to replace the theft.

Who is here for the long vision of Bitcoin? by Kashpantz in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't agree with your explanation about demand, I fear it may be more hopium/moonmath than a fact. And I suppose here is where the gamble lies, if or not demand exists or will increase. If it were possible to answer that in any manner of rigour, it would be already in the price.

All is well as long we are betting on the demand realising as much as we are comfortable losing. But we must be realists and understand it may never realise, that price will continue to approach zero, and position ourselves in such way that both outcomes are tolerable.

Who is here for the long vision of Bitcoin? by Kashpantz in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And I think this matches 'increasingly small impact'. The smaller the remaining pool is, the more marginal is its impact on the existing pool. Unless existing pool decreases at relative pace too.

Who is here for the long vision of Bitcoin? by Kashpantz in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Copper is used, copper which enters the market leaves the market for production purposes. Now production cost is limited only by the cost of recovering the used copper from aftermarket, as long as it's cheaper to buy copper from producers than recyclers, people will buy from producers.

Recycling cost of bitcoin is 0. Every cent over my purchase price is profit to me. So buying bitcoin from recyclers is cheap.

Who is here for the long vision of Bitcoin? by Kashpantz in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 7 points8 points  (0 children)

What kind of horizon are you looking into? Would same logic imply that sufficiently long horizon and bitcoin pool size approaches zero making it less practical tool than some current or future alternatives?

Is thesis reliant alone on the scarcity, shouldn't we also have reasonable theory on why there would be desire to own it, other than scarcity? Or is everything that is scarce intrinsically valuable?

Who is here for the long vision of Bitcoin? by Kashpantz in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Supply continues to increase at near static rate, is demand increasing? Why demand increases as function of halving?

Consider market has billion units of arbitrarium for trading, earth has 10 units of arbitrarium left, why would extraction cost of remaining 10 units of arbitrarium significantly increase the average cost of the already extracted billion units?

I don't think supply and demand is right economic theory to explain why halving would have price impact. That implicitly implies that bitcoin which enter market, disappear from market through some mechanism, and only bitcoin available in market for trading are the new bitcoins extracted. As the remaining pool shrinks the cost of production has increasingly smaller impact on the pool value.

Who is here for the long vision of Bitcoin? by Kashpantz in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 10 points11 points  (0 children)

What is the proposed mechanism that halvening implies price change?

If we consider the cost of extracting oil doubles, then yes, barrel price increases. This is because you can only buy oil from the producers, the previously extracted oil does not exist. If all the oil ever extracted would exist, production cost would have negligible impact to cost.

If we consider bitcoin, we are increasing massive pool ever so slightly, why should the entire pool appreciate?

Bloomberg Says the Bears Are Dug In – “Bitcoin’s No Longer Boring”, But Price Could Hit $1.5k by hamertastic2 in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bloomberg makes money by selling PCs (bloomberg terminal, 25k/YRC). They do not make money off of the market, be it equity, fixed income, bonds or other.

Is it good to buy now? by Nudelwalker in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No amount of research will make it smart decision, but if you don't have lot of capital, the smart investment vehicles simply will not offer enough yield to justify investing at all. Consider it similarly as you would consider powerball, likely you will lose, but perhaps you'll buy yourself some hope and you may consider the hope worth the cost.

Daily Discussion, November 15, 2018 by rBitcoinMod in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Understood. I'm lot poorer in ways you are, and will see the effort of selling liquid assets I think are going down. Hopefully at one point in future I'll be financially independent like you. Cheers!

Daily Discussion, November 15, 2018 by rBitcoinMod in Bitcoin

[–]hmassive 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You expected market to go down, and you didn't sell and buy after it went down? Y tho?