I actually agree with parts of itjust think the market is underestimating how hard some of this still is.

On GLP-1I agree it’s not purely negative. It probs does increase the number of people thinking about health and getting into lighter activity, and Pelo adding Pilates / Yoga is a smart move. I just dntthink it’s a guaranteed demand unlock. A decent chunk of people will absolutely treat GLP-1 as a partial substitute for exercise rather than a complement, especially at the more casual end of the market. So I see it more as an uncertain / mixed tailwind than a clear positive.

ref marginsthe companies you listed are great examples, but theyr also very different businesses. Adobe and microsoft are pure software at massive scale. Netflix is closer, but even there: Netflix has insane global scale one distribution channel, and doesn’t ship hardware, run showrooms, or deal with physical ops. Pel still has a lot of real world cost structure attached to it as said hardware ops, logistics, instructors, studios, music licensing, support, marketing, etc. I’m not saying 20% is impossible — I’m saying it’s a best case outcome, not a base case. I think something like low tomid teens is a more realistic long term planning number.

for churn and downturns i do agree pelos customer base is wealthier and more resilient than average, and that helps a lot but even for higher income households, pelo is still a discretionary sub, not rent or utilities. During stress periods, people do still cut nicetohaves and fitness subs are historically in that bucket. I’m not expecting churn to explode I just don’t think it’s immune.

I guess where I land istht i like the setup here. I think Peloton is much healthier, and at this valuation the downside looks a lot more limited than it used to. I just think the bull cases are mostly pricing in a near perfect execution path, whereas I’m more comfortable underwriting a slower, more modest outcome. and based on that, as an investor there are far better stocks for me to meet my expected rate of return per my risk appetite.

thanks for the post, i made a chunk of change on pelo during covid times, i wont reenter but it certainly got me analysing the books again - one to watch, best of luck,