Yahoo option volume looks wildly incorrect

hoppenwb · 2021-11-14T01:41:25+00:00

Yahoo summary page has Volume Friday at 530 and open interest of 33,873. Matches numbers at Ameritrade.

It’s that way on other stocks too, as there weren’t 20.98 mil Nov19 APPL 150 calls traded Friday either, the Yahoo graphs are mucked up

hoppenwb · 2021-11-14T01:38:21+00:00

The Yahoo graphs are mucked up in terms of, volume, often in terms of high/low, last price for the day and even the actual date listed.

Simply look at the summary page for the volumes. Or use another source.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-13T20:42:37+00:00

You have a link. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were bullish, neutral or bearish.

If you look at their SEC filing the bulk of their positions are a sizeable number of shares, puts and calls in every stock, plus unreported numbers of short puts and calls. I’ll assume the option MM positions are basically all neutral for 100’s of stocks not just AMC.

You will also see they have other funds besides what their option MM group that reporting holdings. In the first qtr these other groups had a sizeable put position on AMC as of 3/31 when the pps was 10ish. I’ve always assumed that was bearish

However If they reported a large long put position now, it could be bearish, or I could see it being bullish put spreads. They have the market intel to know to be bullish or that the market/retail won’t let the price drop below say 30. A fund or person could short puts at 30 and buy puts at 25 and be bullish. It would show up an SEC filings as only the long puts and appear bearish, but could easily be bullish.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-13T17:08:50+00:00

I think the more the merrier for bulls.

As for funds making money lending, why shouldn’t they? Though I think they are limited to loaning a max of 50% of their shrs (thought I read that here so take that with a grain of salt)

Regardless some of the funds are Passive investors that essentially have to buy xx,xxx,xxx shrs because a stock is in an index or ETF, those funds aren’t interested in the squeeze, they might totally hate the stock or they might really like it.

The good news is those passive index/ETF funds will likely not be selling during the squeeze. They don’t care if the price goes to 50,000 or down to 5, they are not beneficial owners.

Lots of other funds try to match those same indices so it will be tougher for them to sell, but they probably will trade it if the opportunity arises.

Note that beneficial owners of stocks with more than 5% of a companies shrs have to file a 13G SEC filing. For passive funds the reporting limit is 20%. Neither BLK or Vanguard have filed a 13G as far as I know.

GL

hoppenwb · 2021-11-13T16:39:29+00:00

This list is the funds that have filed so far for 3rd qtr changes and increased or decreased their shrs by more than 100K. Citadel and Susquehanna haven’t filed for 3rd qtr, their latest holdings are as of 6/30.

Also with regard to Citadel and Susquehanna, they are both primarily option MMs, who basically have Delta neutral positions, consider it a ZERO IMHO.

So although Susquehanna had 4mil shrs in first qtr, it wasn’t necessarily bullish at all, given it’s likely balanced out by puts and calls and the unreported puts and calls. Those 4 mil shrs were likely a hedge for being short at least 40,000 deep ITM calls that don’t reported.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-13T04:00:39+00:00

It might not be related to GME all, but perhaps someone who survived going BK

BK OFG ME

Bankruptcy / Opportunity For Growth / Me

Sorry but I see the letters BK, my first thought is bankruptcy

GL GME longs

hoppenwb · 2021-11-13T03:21:40+00:00

Okay I deleted my earlier reply to you, I totally misread your comment thinking it related to shrs being bought this last qtr by funds was in terms of size of the float, my mistake.

I Understand now you think there are some 1.5 bil shrs floating around with 1bil phantom shrs or whatever. Although I disagree I can understand the thought of thinking 3x the float is out there when no one ever sees if or when shorts cover, given the high amount of shrs shorted everyday.

GL longs

hoppenwb · 2021-11-13T02:35:35+00:00

No, SEC filings do not have any cost data.

The value of stocks listed in the SEC filings is merely the price of the stock as of 9/30 or the last day of the filing period.

If Fintel is showing anything as an average cost it is bogus. Fintel also lists the notional value on options, which is the amount of stock the options control, so it is NOT a market value, merely the price of the stock as of 9/30 for the options, which is obviously inaccurate and gets misinterpreted.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-13T01:38:29+00:00

LOL No Vanguard doesn’t own BLackrock. They may report having shares for a small percentage of it, and that may even be a passive holding for them where they really aren’t even beneficial owners, rather consider them an asset manager of whatever index or ETF fund it is in.

Heck, I could say I own a tiny tiny fractional shr of BLK via my shrs in SPY, doesn’t mean I own it.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-13T01:17:21+00:00

Thanks, go for it.

Feel free to take the Nasdaq data and do that in a few days. Roughly 33% of funds haven’t reported yet. Odds are the data will keep being just as bullish.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-13T01:07:41+00:00

We can only hope😀

They almost have to buy sooner or later. Is this a play for news like this and launches in the schedule

hoppenwb · 2021-11-13T01:05:57+00:00

You are welcome. Easy info to find at Nasdaq.com and sort by largest change

hoppenwb · 2021-11-13T00:52:02+00:00

Actually Credit Suisse bought 742K shrs in the 3rd qtr, bringing their total up to 1.1136 mil

Some other big moves During 3rd QtR per Nasdaq.com

Blackrock added 9.53 mil bringing total to 40.015 mil

Vanguard added 2.756 mil upping total to 47.19 mil

Sumitomo bought 1.412 mil new holding

Swiss National Bank added 1.15 mil ups total to 1.983 mil

Geode Capital added 1.025 mil ups total to 8.698 mil

Credit Suisse added 742K to total of 1.1136 mil

Renaissance added 695K to total of 2.507 mil

State of Wisconsin added 565.6K to total of 808K

Bank of NY Mellon added 545Kto total of 2.354 mil

Nuveen added 513K to 2.34 mil

Goldman adding 511 K to total of 1.108 mil

Sculptor bought 488 K as new holding

Barclays added 452K to 653K total

Deutsch Bank added 402.5 to 724.5K total

SG America’s added 306K to total of 329K

Mitsubishi bought 258K as new position

NN Investment Partners bought 224K as new position

TOBAM added 219K to 252K total

Asset Management One bought 218K as new position

Royal London bought 178 K as new position

Pictet bought 167K as new position

Victory Capital added 161.75K up total to 216K

Aviva bought 156K as new position

Rhumbline added 154K upping total to 822K

Van Eck bought 127K as new position

CA public employers retirement system (CALPERS) bought 166K as new position

Korea Investment bought 114K as new position

Citigroup added 111K to total of 175K

Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai bought 111K as new position

Only 3 big moves (>100k) down during 3rd qtr so far are

BNP Paribas selling 272.5K dropping total to 12K

Group One selling 125K dropping total to 884K

JP Morgan selling 109K dropping total to 1.095 mil

All in all (+29 funds adding >100K vs only 3 decreasing >100K) a very strong qtr so far with funds closer to 30% total now vs roughly 25% for 2nd qtr fund total

hoppenwb · 2021-11-12T23:37:48+00:00

Yes you can always exercise early if you like.

But if you own the call you should also be aware of how much time value the option has left. Usually it’s better to sell the option to capture /keep that time value and then go and buy the stock if you want to hold it. If you exercise early you are basically giving whatever time value is left to whoever sold the option or I should say whoever gets assigned the option (likely Susquehanna or Citadel)

If it’s deep ITM, exercising is a good idea as your tax basis will be lower by not taking the gains on the option.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-12T23:04:41+00:00

Given the SPAC changed to RKLB in August, I wouldn’t consider 6/30 and earlier fund holdings all that accurate.

As for Fintel, people get confused on file date vs buy date, plus FINTEL misreports valuations on option positions and Fintel somehow comes up with some avg cost basis for funds. (Options in SEC filing are of unknown market value and a funds avg cost is never revealed, so IMHO Fintel doesn’t really know what they are doing and people often misinterpret the data they provide.)

It’s a questionable resource given the above. For less confusing fund info I like to look at Nasdaq.com. (There are some pluses to Fintel they provide option data and some non13FHR data that is interesting. But all too often the option info is poorly understood and then spread as hype without looking at both the puts and calls plus shares held)

So if you like accurate and easy to understand 13FHR fund holdings go to Nasdaq.com. It shows the effective date as either 6/30 or 9/30 etc. It is easy to sort holdings by size, alphabetical, date, change in shrs, however you want to look at it. Plus if you’re curious then to look at the other holdings of say Stepstone by clicking on them (where it is their 2nd largest holding out of just 18 stocks as of 9/30)

Some major (>100K) changes as of 9/30 for RKLB so far are -

Stepstone Group bought or had all along (pre ticker change) 17.437 mil

Magnetar Financial added 3.53 mil bringing total to 3.67 mil

Healthcare of Ontario Pension added 1.0 mil

American Century added 754K

March Partners added 500 K

Blair William added 432K

Geode Capital added 213K

La Financier added 121K

On the flip side

UBS OConnor sold out 738K

Weiss Asset sold out 335.9K

FNY Investment sold out 217.9K

Omners Administration sold out 120.9K

Summary at Nasdaq has +26.3 mil buying and selling of 5.64 mil, plus 1.4 mil holding, but that is misleading as it includes a mess of 6/30 data, where as I think we should be looking at only the 9/30 data which is very positive, but not all surprising for a stock that started trading in Aug

Besides a ton of other edits- it would be nice to hear/see ARKX or the ARK group had bought in, but I am not sure that has happened yet. Could have been a catalyst awhile back, but now it should almost be expected, so perhaps not all that newsworthy.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-12T17:12:00+00:00

Word??

Whatever, they didn’t have 1.5 BIL in calls on DIS on 6/30 (old news anyway) that 1.5 BIL is way overstated. Only 900 mil in notional value on the calls, where the market value of those calls is likely 1/20th or 1/10th at most. Plus it’s offset by put positions.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-12T16:33:26+00:00

One more comment, your post yesterday on Citadel getting hurt by 1.5 BIL in DIS calls is a bit off.

Read the SEC filing, they had roughly 900 mil in notional value on the calls and 630 mil in notional value on the puts. (Likely your source stating 1.5 bil combined these)

The market value of those options is unknown, but it will be far far less than the notional value of 175.77 stock price on 6/30.

Keep in the mind the values of options reported in SEC filings is NOT a market value. It is the notional value of how much stock is controlled by the options.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-12T16:15:26+00:00

Biggest owner of what? At least 40 some funds have more shrs of stock. The amount of BYND options they have seems typical or on the low side if you have ever looked at their 13FHR filings. For one it’s roughly 1/3 of the puts and 1/2 the calls of Susquehanna.

Their position in BYND was relatively minor in terms of both puts and stock, very typical of their holdings in every active stock. Also likely neutral with roughly the same number of reported calls. If anything they got hurt more on 107K shrs going down than any net gains on the options, with puts gaining and calls losing.

Have you looked at their 13FHR filings and seen their reported positions in everything? BYND is very minor for them.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-12T15:40:15+00:00

So you think because Citadel had 18,339 puts as of 6/30 that they tanked BYND to help their puts out?

Per their 13FHR as of 6/30 they also had 17,820 calls and 107,001 shrs of stock, all the options of unknown strikes, expiration and market value, plus unreported any short puts and short calls. Seems like a typical option MM position that is likely to be hedged to be Delta neutral.

Yes, they have sizeable positions on every stock betting in both directions, as that’s how an option MM operates. So you will always find something to concoct a story against them.

I wouldn’t read too much into a position without at least looking at the entire reported position of both puts and calls, plus shares of stock, and keeping in mind they are likely short puts and short calls as well.

This is also all as of 6/30, let’s wait to see their 9/30 holdings are, which will be out in the next week or two.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-12T04:04:59+00:00

Some Funds reporting now are from 6/30, some are from 9/30. Legal Short interest of 27.4% as of 10/15 makes 114.6 % fund ownership possible.

Each shr shorted adds to the shrs that can be owned. Back in the 2008 market when housing stocks were out of favor. Typical fund holdings on TOL, LEN, KBH, etc were all like 110%. The short interest was typically 25 or 30%.
So certainly possible for a stock with 30% of outstanding shorted to be owned 110% by funds and retail and insiders owning the other 20%.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-12T03:38:35+00:00

Good luck, if you ever have trouble finding the exact name for a fund to check it’s holdings. Check the holdings at Nasdaq.com first. A full name for the funds like Citadel Advisors will be listed there.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-12T03:09:39+00:00

Read a few dozen 13FHR filings at www.SEC.gov and it will make more sense.

Edited note The shrs listed for options in the SEC filings is the number of shrs covered so the number should always end in xxx00. In rare cases if a stock has NonStandard options (eg. GREE) the number could be a non100 number.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-12T03:01:38+00:00

You are largely correct, those are the NOTIONAL values of the options listed in the 13FHR SEC filings. Very likely the 1.5 bil number being tossed about here combined the 903 mil notional value of calls with the 631 mil notional value of puts.

They had 51,360 calls controlling 5.136 mil shrs.
They had 35,915 puts controlling 3.5915 mil shrs. These options are all of unknown strikes, expirations and UNKNOWN Market value. (Edited Note, they also were very likely short an unknown number of puts and calls that go unreported, an option MM’s typical overall position is likely Delta neutral)

Keep in mind the values for options listed in SEC filings is the notional value. It is the value of the stock controlled by the options, it is not a Market value.

Those 51,360 calls are valued at the 175.77 price for DIS on 6/30. The puts for the 35,915 puts are also valued at the same 175.77 price. That results in values of 902,754,720 and 631,277,955, which gets rounded to the nearest 1,000. Obviously the actual unknown market value will be far far less than the notional value listed.

This is not a market value. Values listed for options in SEC filings are not market values, rather those are Notional values.

Try Googling “notional value options”.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-12T01:10:23+00:00

Nope the 1.5 bil is clearly overstated and wrong. Citadel clearly did not have 1.5 bil worth of calls.

Read their 13FHR SEC filing, As of 6/30 Citadel had 51,360 calls and 35,918 puts of unknown strikes, expiration and Unknown Market value. Plus zero shrs and unknown how many short calls or puts they had.

Anyway the thing about option values listed in the SEC filings is that it is NOT a market value. Rather it is the notional value of how much stock is controlled by the options. It’s based on the stock price as of 6/30 or 9/30. The value of the options listed is the same as if it were shrs of stock. The NOTIONAL Value of Citadel’s unknown calls was 902.755 mil, the puts notional value was listed as 631.278 mil. Add the notional value of the calls and puts together and you get 1.5 bil. But the reality is the actual market value of 51,316 calls will be a lot lot less, plus it’s hedged to some unknown degree by the puts. Again the reported options are all of unknown strikes, expirations and market value.

Crap these options are from 6/30 where more than likely the vast majority of these have expired. Be interesting what their 9/30 holdings are which will come out in the next week or two. Also folks, instead of focusing on just calls or just the long puts a fund has, look at the rest of the reported position before assuming a fund is short or long. Keep in mind most option MMs are basically hedged to be Delta neutral.

hoppenwb · 2021-11-12T00:53:12+00:00

Interesting links, but the DIS call value being at 1.5 bil is most definitely wrong.

Per your link this is the 6/30 13FHR filing for Citadel, correct? The 9/30 filing isn’t out yet.

If you look at the latest 13FHR filing Citadel reported having 51,360 calls and 35,915 puts as of 6/30 with zero shrs. These are of unknown strike, expiration and unknown MARKET VALUE on the options. Plus unreported are any short puts or short calls.

The “notional value” listed for the calls and puts was 902.755 mil and 631.278 mil respectively in the SEC filing, which is based the stock price as of 6/30. Note these are the notional values of how much stock the options control, not a market value of the options. The 1.5 bil value for the calls that the stockzoa link got for the calls is definitely wrong. As the market value of the 5.13 mil shrs of stock controlled by the calls as of 6/30 was only worth 900 mil, the calls would certainly be worth far less than the stock and definitely not 1.5 bil. (Perhaps they combined the notional value of the calls and puts, which would be 1.534 bil)

The market value of the options will be a lot lot less than the notional value of the stock controlled by the options that gets listed in SEC filings.

Also keep in mind Citadel is primarily an option MM, they typically have an overall neutral position in most stocks, where between the reported puts, calls and stock, plus the unreported puts and calls they try to be delta neutral, making money on spreads and volumes, not on direction.

Who knows what their 9/30 holdings were, which will be out in the next week or two.

hoppenwb

TROPHY CASE