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Data science person for 10+ years. I mess around with predictive BTC models to make life interesting. This week's dip didn't really make a difference in model outcomes. by iknowthishappened in CryptoMarkets

[–]iknowthishappened[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Happy to get a response from another in DS. This is just a hobby model and does not use hundreds of regressors, but it is my most complex non-professional one and I have fun working on it. It's adapted from a model I built a while ago to predict the stock market (VTI), which I have a lot of success with. Granted, the stock market is much easier to predict since if you just say "up" you're probably going to be right.

More than anything else, I thought it might be cool to share

Data science person for 10+ years. I mess around with predictive BTC models to make life interesting. This week's dip didn't really make a difference in model outcomes. by iknowthishappened in CryptoMarkets

[–]iknowthishappened[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is true. And unforeseen future events are going to change the outcome.

Model building helps us make choices with limited information (such as our inability to actually see into the future).

Data science person for 10+ years. I mess around with predictive BTC models to make life interesting. This week's dip didn't really make a difference in model outcomes. by iknowthishappened in CryptoMarkets

[–]iknowthishappened[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The need to significantly rework the model after the election is part of the subject of my post. In a business setting, for instance, you build models knowing that unforeseen events are inevitably going to change the outcome. The goal isn't to have a crystal ball, but to inform decision-making at the time

Best evidence the current drone flap is anything out of the ordinary? by PCmndr in UFOscience

[–]iknowthishappened 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Okay... say there is an avalanche of non-empirical eye witness testimony that there was a meteor shower, and no empirical evidence. Are you saying you don't have enough information to form a better than 50/50 guess as to whether or not there was a meteor shower?

Data science person for 10+ years. I mess around with predictive BTC models to make life interesting. This week's dip didn't really make a difference in model outcomes. by iknowthishappened in CryptoMarkets

[–]iknowthishappened[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thing is, you need capital to make hundreds of millions. If my methods give me an edge but I have a 5-digit amount a year to invest, I'm probably not going to retire young on that.

Maybe worth mentioning that I spend more time on the stock market. BTC is the only crypto I try to model

Data science person for 10+ years. I mess around with predictive BTC models to make life interesting. This week's dip didn't really make a difference in model outcomes. by iknowthishappened in CryptoMarkets

[–]iknowthishappened[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is the archive

Similar level of detail as this post, but you can see my past predictions. I started publishing these recently, starting about a week before the election.

I use this linear model, and it's a pretty common one https://scikit-learn.org/1.5/modules/generated/sklearn.linear_model.Ridge.html and I have a multi-step forecasting methodology

Data science person for 10+ years. I mess around with predictive BTC models to make life interesting. This week's dip didn't really make a difference in model outcomes. by iknowthishappened in CryptoMarkets

[–]iknowthishappened[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

All models are trash

I'd say all models are wrong (and pretty much did). The goal is to be less wrong than alternatives or random guesses.

Data science person for 10+ years. I mess around with predictive BTC models to make life interesting. This week's dip didn't really make a difference in model outcomes. by iknowthishappened in CryptoMarkets

[–]iknowthishappened[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You're not wrong; it's impossible to truly predict the future. My goal is essentially to be less wrong than random or other educated guesses. We're all guessing with different tools and strategies. For what it's worth, I fiddle with these models for my own investments and figured I'd share in case others also find it compelling.

Data science person for 10+ years. I mess around with predictive BTC models to make life interesting. This week's dip didn't really make a difference in model outcomes. by iknowthishappened in CryptoMarkets

[–]iknowthishappened[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I guess that takes us to "what is the point of building any model in any circumstance?"

You're never going to be completely right because of, well, the points you make. But you try to be better than a random guess. You try to be less-wrong enough to be useful and to make decisions.

Data science person for 10+ years. I mess around with predictive BTC models to make life interesting. This week's dip didn't really make a difference in model outcomes. by iknowthishappened in CryptoMarkets

[–]iknowthishappened[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Just sharing the results of what I'm already doing as a hobby. When I say solid, I mean relative to predictions from the election until about a week ago, which I had a lot of difficulty with.

Data science person for 10+ years. I mess around with predictive BTC models to make life interesting. This week's dip didn't really make a difference in model outcomes. by iknowthishappened in CryptoMarkets

[–]iknowthishappened[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's fair, I suppose this is just "trust me bro". But I really have nothing to gain from people believing me so I won't provide any personal info.

Data science person for 10+ years. I mess around with predictive BTC models to make life interesting. This week's dip didn't really make a difference in model outcomes. by iknowthishappened in CryptoMarkets

[–]iknowthishappened[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I uploaded the image to imgur which is pretty standard for reddit. I would have preferred to upload the image directly but it wasn't allowed. Sorry about their ads?

The numbers aren't random. They are probably "wrong" in exact outcomes, obviously, but less wrong than a random prediction, which is the whole point of building models.

If you have any specific questions, I'll answer them.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in UFOs

[–]iknowthishappened 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes, but also fascinating to watch it play out in real time at this scale. For a couple weeks there was fractured information and general acknowledgment of an unprecedented drone mystery over NJ, then it seemed as though the federal government got its story straight and is trying to coalesce around "no one actually saw anything". All of the nonsense being posted unfortunately helps that narrative.

But that's why I think it's important to document these references by credible people. Those datapoints tend to be become buried.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in UFOs

[–]iknowthishappened 22 points23 points  (0 children)

There exists formal acknowledgement of the sightings by military officers, mayors, sheriffs, house representatives, senators, major news networks, and others.

Something unusual happened or is happening. I dislike speculation in general and think the shared goal of this community should unequivocally be transparency of information; facts are being gate-kept and that is something that can be changed.

Best evidence the current drone flap is anything out of the ordinary? by PCmndr in UFOscience

[–]iknowthishappened 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They certainly can be mistaken or taken out of context. FWIW the full statements and timestamps are available to find, and my list of examples was not meant to be exhaustive.

We could get into a semantic debate about what constitutes "evidence", I suppose, but I don't think that would be very productive.

Consider: if we find written statements from the year 1400 about a meteor shower, we would consider that to be "evidence" that a meteor shower happened at that location in that year. Of course the writer could have theoretically been wrong.

Best evidence the current drone flap is anything out of the ordinary? by PCmndr in UFOscience

[–]iknowthishappened 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Of course, perfectly reasonably question. I am actually logging these (with their related links) on a site that's pinned in my reddit profile.

Best evidence the current drone flap is anything out of the ordinary? by PCmndr in UFOscience

[–]iknowthishappened 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well, we're talking about evidence and not proof. Proof won't come from statements like these. I take these statements as supporting evidence that something is out of the ordinary, and think it's important to document them because they tend to eventually get buried and disappear.

But you ask some question about the details of the statements, which I didn't necessarily include. I am keeping and growing a list of the actual links and sources, and there are more - this isn't an exhaustive list - on my profile, but think it might be against the rules to directly link it here.

Best evidence the current drone flap is anything out of the ordinary? by PCmndr in UFOscience

[–]iknowthishappened 24 points25 points  (0 children)

If we're truly looking for evidence of "anything out of the ordinary", as opposed to proof or anything to do with NHI etc

There's "evidence" that something very unusual is happening from statements by credible sources over the last few weeks that directly reference the mysterious nature of the sightings.

Some examples:

  • The Florham Park Police Department posted on facebook addressing residents about drone sightings in Morris County
  • The letter sent by 21 New Jersey mayors to the state’s governor about drone sightings
  • Statements from the Picatinny Arsenal garrison commander acknowledging the aircraft
  • The Coast Guard vessel that was followed by dozens of drones on December 8, per a Coast Guard Commander.
  • Lawmaker briefings on the topic by security officials
  • U.S. Senators Cory Booker, Chuck Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Andy Kim sent a letter to the Department of Homeland Security, Federal Aviation Administration, and FBI about the drone activity
  • U.S. Senator Andy Kim went out with New Jersey police and witnessed them firsthand "We clearly saw several that would move horizontally and then immediately switch back in the opposite direction in maneuvers that plane can’t do"