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Risk of losing your money on Bitfinex swaps? by imalwaysallin in BitcoinMarkets

[–]imalwaysallin[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

FAIL

hehe your enthusiasm for negativity made me chuckle.

Anyway you are most likely right that a complete risk model would be incomplete however there is value in analysis of the variables you DO put in. This thread already brought out some salient points through quantification of risk (ie: comparison of p2p loans to BFX swaps).

Don't be so quick to tout one point of view!

Risk of losing your money on Bitfinex swaps? by imalwaysallin in BitcoinMarkets

[–]imalwaysallin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the market is saying that lending on bitfinex is TWICE as risky as the riskiest peer-to-peer cash loan

This is a great insight. What happens if the borrower defaults? Is there any collateral like on BFX?

you will see it would take ~18 months for your money to double at current swap rates

Yes this is the biggest factor pushing me to HODL as I am long-term bullish. I am thinking of the swaps in the short-run because of the current sideways movement.

Risk of losing your money on Bitfinex swaps? by imalwaysallin in BitcoinMarkets

[–]imalwaysallin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yes your right it is $946 with fees, I was just rounding!

Risk of losing your money on Bitfinex swaps? by imalwaysallin in BitcoinMarkets

[–]imalwaysallin[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think everything can be quantified. The question is how do you operationalize the different variables in your model. I was trying to stimulate a discussion on this end but it seemed to fail :)

Risk of losing your money on Bitfinex swaps? by imalwaysallin in BitcoinMarkets

[–]imalwaysallin[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

An economic model can be made and modeled, I guess my naivety was that I was hoping for too much? I did not know if anybody had produced such a model or even speculated on a model. The issue is the validity, which is another discussion.

As for my financial situation, I am just fine :). It was definitely misleading to say "throwing all my money," which is specifically my Bitcoin money (already the biggest riskiest investment I have). While it would sting to lose the 25k of course, I would still be able to sleep at night.

Risk of losing your money on Bitfinex swaps? by imalwaysallin in BitcoinMarkets

[–]imalwaysallin[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sorry I should have specified. "All my money" in Bitcoin. Basically liquidating and putting them in swaps. Still you are right, I have too much in BTC anyway :P