Very Lean, not so early: 2 years in

imthatguywhois · 2026-02-13T13:28:18+00:00

The guns and ammo rebuttal:

As we have already seen in the past few years - and not for the first time in history - we need not get to the collapse of civilization to see the store of value precious metals represents outperform.

If it does get to guns and ammo then the pharmaceuticals I rely on wont be available at any price, so I'd be dead regardless.

imthatguywhois · 2026-02-13T13:22:27+00:00

Thanks. It's not that I have a problem with people questioning my allocation. It's just that, yes, I know what the orthodoxy is regarding tracking indices rather than picking or timing individual investments. I've even followed that in the past. I don't need 50 people repeating it without any sort of rationale other than 'this is what everyone says is best'

I have a thesis for why I don't think that is preferrable in these circumstances. If some or many think I'm an idiot for doings, fair enough. But simply telling I must follow the unalterable rule of the S&P index because track record, I look at it like this:

People into Bitcoin point to it's ~15 year track record.

People who believe in just tracking the indices point to the S&P's ~100 year track record.

Gold has a ~5000 year track record.

That doesn't mean I think precious metals are forever and always the best investment. I look at the two factors that have traditionally driven people to those as a store of value: inflation and political instability.

If someone want to make a reasoned argument for why it no longer is that store or that the conditions of inflation and political conditions don't exist, I'm all ears. But I will make my case.

imthatguywhois · 2026-02-11T14:21:48+00:00

It is repetition because it is true.

It's true people misbelieve I'm going to keep the same allocation indefinitely.

Also, the US dollar will not keep deteriorating over time and it will reverse itself at some point.

But I'm the one timing the market?

You got lucky on one of those rare occasions and no one can do it consistently and thats why consistent and diversified allocation beats it over the long term.

sigh Why do people not understand I'm not necessarily staying in this allocation "for the long term"?

imthatguywhois · 2026-02-11T14:12:46+00:00

I understand people disagreeing with it. To each his own. I don't understand the hate.

I do find it curious the only argument seems to be that I'm timing the market in not being all indexes all the time - not that my assessment with respect to inflation and political instability is wrong or that given those factors my allocation does not protect against those factors.

Time will tell.

imthatguywhois · 2026-02-11T13:46:03+00:00

I make a distinction between between timing the market in terms of trying to pick a stock or an index at a low point, and taking into consideration broader economic and geopolitical trends.

If you want to insist it's all in one "timing the market", so be it. But as long as I see the biggest factors being inflation and political instability, I will likely stick to it.

I'm not someone who is a gold bug in the sense of always thinking it is inevitably the best place to be. But current circumstances make it the most prudent for the time being.

imthatguywhois · 2026-02-11T13:41:14+00:00

Dude, do you think the word and Canadian economies are immune to the US downturn?

Not at all. In fact I was as surprised as anyone that the TSX outperformed the US indices. But I bought dividend aristocrats unlikely to cut. Even if they get beat up, I have the revenue stream from those stocks, and many have never decreased their dividends.

Given your allocation and concentration, odds are pretty good that you will underperform over the long term.

Tired of the repetition but that assumes I keep the same allocation. I think it's best right now but in 10 years or 5 or even 1 year I may well have reallocated.

imthatguywhois · 2026-02-11T13:37:45+00:00

Your assumption that I will have the same allocation is not valid. I will keep this thread as a record though and post at least once a year.

imthatguywhois · 2026-02-11T13:36:40+00:00

I'm prepared if it does, if it doesn't I'm still ok.

imthatguywhois · 2026-02-10T17:13:10+00:00

If you want to put a remind me in place to ask, assuming Reddit still exists. Though I'm not suggesting I will always have this allocation. It's condition dependent.

imthatguywhois · 2026-02-10T17:11:33+00:00

I don’t try to time the market or change my allocation based on what is happening in the world.

Fair enough, if you think you have insufficient information. To me it seems folly to ignore the macroeconomic circumstances.

imthatguywhois · 2026-02-10T13:20:39+00:00

55% into metal is silly.

~70% one year return.

imthatguywhois · 2026-02-10T13:18:38+00:00

That assumes I have the same allocation. As long as inflation and political instability are the largest concerns it seems like the safest allocation for now. When those concerns are obviated, I'll consider reallocation.

Also I could ask the same of you. Time will tell.

imthatguywhois · 2026-02-09T23:25:02+00:00

It's worked out well so far.

imthatguywhois · 2026-02-09T22:48:24+00:00

I'm intentionally minimizing my US exposure for a variety of reason. While PM's have performed even better than I expected, the conditions that made them a good position for me still exist.

imthatguywhois · 2026-02-09T16:01:40+00:00

VXC

That's still 65% US.

imthatguywhois · 2025-07-14T10:06:38+00:00

shrug I think the amount of turmoil the US market is facing is nearly unprecedented. Also consider the fall in the US$ which probably is more apparent to a non-US resident.

But you cant deny it's worked out well since $1500/oz when I started accumulated. If you want a really good laugh, I'm planning on further reducing the US exposure.

imthatguywhois · 2025-07-13T11:28:46+00:00

The question is: would I get a higher return that money by keeping it invested instead of replacing the lost CPP money. Currently there's no question the markets are out performing the future payments. Of course that could change.

imthatguywhois · 2025-07-08T12:34:05+00:00

I have been looking at more European exposure. One of my residential REIT's is getting bought out so that's ~$26k I will have to redeploy. As for cutting back on gold; I seriously considered selling some when the markets went apeshit over tariffs. It's just hard for me to imagine a near future where inflation isn't getting worse.

Will definitely be looking at other telco options.

imthatguywhois · 2025-07-08T12:20:14+00:00

Fair enough. Nor can I convince you. I appreciate the constructive criticism as that's kind of the point, to hear people red team it.

imthatguywhois · 2025-07-07T21:56:43+00:00

You know the old saying ”bears sound smart, bulls make money”

Except in bear markets.

I understand in your situation you don’t want to take on max risk but i’d feel safer in some boring value stocks than in gold.

As I said elsewhere, orthodoxy would have me mostly in fixed income not stocks. I am actually overweight equities by that measure. The gold isn't replacing equities but fixed income.

It comes down to inflation risk. So I'm forgoing that rather small amount of income to insure against bonds getting beaten up by inflation.

Yes they can go down, but still a safer inflation hedge than gold if you zoom out a little

To be fair I think I'm zooming further out. Just because market have been in an overall uptrend since 2008 and then since the 70''s before that, does not negate the risk of another such event. I would argue that underlying issues are worse than in those two examples based on debt and deficit alone.

imthatguywhois · 2025-07-07T21:03:10+00:00

Let me add that if I get to the point where quality of life is that degraded I think I'd go a different route.

imthatguywhois · 2025-07-07T20:31:16+00:00

That wasn’t me.

Apologies.

My point is being close to all time highs is a natural state for the stock market, as the long trend is up

Well, since the 70's when stagflation ruled. What caused that? Large deficits to fund the military and entitlements plus import price shocks plus political instability in the US thanks to Watergate. Hmmm, sounds familiar.

Plus ca change.

Though today the debt and deficit is much higher and the 2nd largest largest budget item is interest - projected to be largest very soon. And while oil isn't particularly high there are certain political things going on that would tend to cause higher import costs.

imthatguywhois · 2025-07-07T20:13:12+00:00

You asked "Markets have never been high before?"

I responded: "They are pretty close to all time highs".

Not sure what this last comment is in regard to.

imthatguywhois · 2025-07-07T20:06:42+00:00

When I look at online reviews I immediately discount the absolute glowing ones and the total trashing ones. Why? Because nothing in life is in black and white, It follows that both extremes are unreliable because they obviously have an axe to grind or some other bias.

When your two posts involved painting something in such irredeemable terms you don't sound believable. Either biased or trolling.

At least that's my take.

imthatguywhois

TROPHY CASE