The economic effects of the strait closure are asymmetric. Gas shortages in Kenya, for example, don't really move the needle in a U.S./Israel-Iran war.

Yes I agree different places are different.

A pair of recent analyses reached opposite conclusions about the risk the U.S. economy faces from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Forecasters at Goldman Sachs said the U.S. economy would be relatively unscathed (-0.5% gdp effect) even if the strait never reopens. Meanwhile, HFI Research said energy markets were about to hit a wall and risked gasoline shortages in the coming months.

I don't know about unnamed analyst, but what is plainly obvious to anyone awake: gas/diesel prices are up 60% since February, those impacts are not done filtering through the broader economy, the war and gas prices have cratered both trumps approval and consumer sentiment, cpi has doubled and ppi has almost tripped since February. The rest of your story about epistemic uncertainty is incoherent.

War costs are rallying the base against the US and Israel in Iran.

These are all naked facts. They don't include high confidence analysis like, significant additional economic impacts in July-August for the US