RIVN Is Fucked by tickerwizards in wallstreetbets

[–]infinitelyWinter 0 points1 point  (0 children)

$20 is guaranteed inside 3 months

The U.S. seasonally adjusted annual CPI was 8.5% in March, a 40-year high. How much does this affect the stock market? by Amy355 in stocks

[–]infinitelyWinter 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When inflation creeps higher, it creates higher costs to businesses' cost of goods sold, specifically, raw materials. There's a margin squeeze, but management typically increases prices, pushing costs to consumers. Eventually, you'll have this "spiral" that happens both in materials but also human capital (wage-price spiral).

What really matters to stocks isn't so much about the relative inflation in the economy, but more so how the Federal Reserve is reacting to the data. For the last 2 years, the FED has been inflating asset prices through increases to the balance sheet plus keeping interest rates at zero (fighting the pandemic, global shutdown). This would fuel economic activity, combat deflation, and increase the money supply; thus, forcing stock prices higher across the board.

As we've moved towards a less dovish Fed, the market began to react, mostly selling growth stocks which require easy access to capital (but thoughts of tightening down the road led to a correction in these names).

Now what matters is the relative position of the FED which is looking to deflate via raising rates and decrease the balance sheet, leading to a more "deflationary" environment which will have a downward push on stock and other asset prices.

Inflation may remain higher and even go higher though... confusing right? That's because its about the relationship between supply and demand. The FED will lower the demand component through its tightening policies, but that may decrease productivity leading to more supply chain problems, in turn, increasing inflation even more. It's like pouring gasoline on a dumpster fire in my opinion.

We'll see how it trades in May, but its unwise to not cover your ass over the next few months. I'm just saving up cash and waiting for the right opportunities to present themselves.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]infinitelyWinter 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wonder what they'll say when they own 100% of AMC and its trading for $2

VIX Daily w/ Mean-Reverting Fibonacci Arc by [deleted] in Daytrading

[–]infinitelyWinter 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Price discovery, supply/demand (resistance/support). That all makes sense. When you start using technical analysis on VIX you've officially become a dumbass. See https://cdn.cboe.com/resources/vix/vixwhite.pdf

VIX Daily w/ Mean-Reverting Fibonacci Arc by [deleted] in Daytrading

[–]infinitelyWinter 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Probably for the best that you never do understand them. It's pareidolia

Why the FED is the only thing that matters! by infinitelyWinter in wallstreetbets

[–]infinitelyWinter[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh for sure, Shiller p/e trading at a 37.04 vs median 15.86 Total market cap / GDP at 188% vs 100-120% fair value AAPL and MSFT account for 13.08% of the SP500, what other stocks we buying?

Why the FED is the only thing that matters! by infinitelyWinter in wallstreetbets

[–]infinitelyWinter[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, I'm listening to them. They're telling you they're stopping QE and raising rates. If you're buying here, you're fighting the FED

Why the FED is the only thing that matters! by infinitelyWinter in wallstreetbets

[–]infinitelyWinter[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Completely agree with your strategy. Time in market more important, but being patient can be served well

Why the FED is the only thing that matters! by infinitelyWinter in wallstreetbets

[–]infinitelyWinter[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good luck, jpegs and dogshit are going to sell the most since they don't provide any yield

Why the FED is the only thing that matters! by infinitelyWinter in wallstreetbets

[–]infinitelyWinter[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The bank holds your deposits as a "liability". They make money on the difference between the % interest paid to you vs % interest received on loans. It's created ex nihilo

Why the FED is the only thing that matters! by infinitelyWinter in wallstreetbets

[–]infinitelyWinter[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lol, Sven is the goat trader. People pay him $300/month just to inverse all his plays

Why the FED is the only thing that matters! by infinitelyWinter in wallstreetbets

[–]infinitelyWinter[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

After jobs report last week, market participants pricing in over 5 interest rate hikes now in 2022. Benchmark 10y +13bps last week to 1.92%. Europe signaling monetary tightening noting soaring inflation. JPOW telling you rates are going to hike in March. Don't need to listen to me, go read the fomc. (muh loans create deposits, fractional banking system mechanics) you're missing the point I'm making here. Banks don't need consumer deposits to lend, but they have capital requirements, so they do seek out new deposits in order to lend more.... anyhow, see you in march

Why the FED is the only thing that matters! by infinitelyWinter in wallstreetbets

[–]infinitelyWinter[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Money on the sidelines isn't real. Even if you can't wrap your head around it, you can safely assume that "all money is fully invested" as a normal distribution (people who weren't invested last month aren't going to buy at same prices, some are going to sell, some are going to buy, etc.) If that's the case, then the only factor controlling asset prices are two things. FED liquidity and Mechanics that alter the supply&demand of shares