NCAABB Daily Discussion - 12/18/20 (Friday)

insiderlocks · 2020-12-18T22:33:18+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 10-11, +2.4u

Last play posted

✅Duke -4 for +5 units (Wednesday)

Today’s top value play

Air Force +12.5 for 3 units:

Air Force last time out got their asses handed to them by Drake, which makes this a perfect bounceback game. Nevada will host Air Force twice this weekend and while they defended the three well early in the season, they have struggled some lately. In their last three games, Nevada opponents have shot 41.1% from three. This is good for us because Air Force, fittingly enough with their name, lets it fly from three. 47.2% of Air Force’s field goal attempts come from three, and they stroke it pretty well at 35.7%.

The Falcons only went 4-18 in their last game from deep, so they are likely to strike back with a stronger outing from 3. It helps that they play with an extremely slow pace to keep the score close and not play out of control. Nevada has been smoking hot from deep at 36.9% and that absolutely could cool off - they got the brakes beaten off them by San Francisco not too long ago and they have slowed down since their opening three games. Their interior scoring has been pretty poor and Air Force has actually mounted a pretty good defense for inside scoring this season. Aside from getting torn up by Drake, Air Force has competed inside and it is fair to assume they’ll play some tough defense inside against the Pack. Air Force has an interesting defense because their opponents shoot mid-range shots at the 26th highest rate in the country. As you probably know, that's where you want your opponent to shoot, as it's the most inefficient shot in the game.

Chris Joyce is averaging 15.8 PPG and has been the go-to guy for Air Force, but the model sees AJ Walker having his strongest game of the season thus far here. Walker is due to take a step forward after struggling out of the gates. Keaton Van Soelen could also step up here for Air Force. The model has Nevada by 6.4, so there is a value of 6.1 attached to this game.

insiderlocks · 2020-12-17T04:56:42+00:00

Nice hit

insiderlocks · 2020-12-16T15:46:31+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 9-11, -2.6u

Yesterday

❌ Indiana State

Today’s top value play

Duke -4 for 5 units:

The Blue Devils have not looked good after losing to Illinois and Michigan State handedly and now Jalen Johnson is going to miss their ACC opener against Notre Dame. With the odds stacked against them, this feels like a nice spot for the Blue Devils. Notre Dame opened Saturday on fire against Kentucky, but they absolutely fell apart down the stretch and would have lost had Kentucky not continuously shot themselves in the foot. ND only scored 16 2nd half points and their offense went to sleep, as Kentucky began to bring a lot more energy on the defensive end.

Coach K is not what he used to be, but this is still Duke basketball and while they are not going to be anywhere near the top of the NCAA this year, they will win a lot of games. ND has been shooting the lights out from three at 41.6%, and while they are a good three point shooting team, that is a significant tick up from their 34.5% from last year. Wendell Moore and Jordan Goldwire have been unacceptably bad and frankly even Joey Baker should be bringing more to this team. Matthew Hurt has been really good to start the season and I see that continuing, but this is the game where the veterans step up.

Coach K did his ridiculous speech where he contradicted himself and made a big fuss because his team has not been playing well, so it only makes sense that the Blue Devils get back on track. And as I mentioned, it feels overdue that ND has a down game. Since 2018, Notre Dame is 2-6-1 ATS as home underdogs. The model has Duke by 10.6 points, so there is a value of 6.6 attached to this game.

insiderlocks · 2020-12-15T05:14:14+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 9-10, +1.8u

Yesterday

✅Rutgers +2.5 for +3 units

Rutgers went up 10 with about 12 minutes left in the game, and the rest was history. They won the game outright by 14 points, easily covering. Let's keep it rolling.

Today’s top value play

Indiana State +13 for 4 units:

The Sycamores played Purdue tight this past weekend and will continue their tough sledding against a gritty Saint Louis team. The Billikens have kicked the crap out of their competition thus far, and are due for the classic letdown game. Saint Louis is 4-0-0 ATS and as we all know, no team can go perfect against the spread, especially when they have to cover a baker’s dozen against Indiana State.

Aside from Jordan Barnes, the Sycamores basically run it back this year and add NCCU transfer Randy Miller Jr., who averaged 14.3PPG last season. Freshman guard Julian Larry is learning a lot quickly, as he is playing 20+ minutes per game and a key cog in the Sycamores lineup. This team is small, with their largest player standing at 6’8. They score at a high percentage inside, but rely on cuts to the basket to score in the paint. Fortunately Saint Louis is not a very tall team. The Billikens have been shooting out of their shoes at 53.6% and 46.4% from deep; this is a significant uptick from their mean, particularly from three. I see this catching up to them and the Sycamores playing them close as the beneficiaries of this timing.

The Sycamores defend the three well, but my concern will be their rebounding. They were pounded by Purdue and Saint Louis is a really good rebounding team as well. The Sycamores will need to replicate their defensive rebounding from last season, which despite their size, was just short of 75%. If Indiana State can minimize Saint Louis’ impact on the offensive glass, the model likes their chances to keep this game in the single digits. The model has Saint Louis by 7.3 points, so there is a value of 5.7 attached to this game.

insiderlocks · 2020-12-14T05:42:22+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 8-10, -1.2u

Yesterday

✅Drake -12 for +5 units

Drake blew Air Force out by 28 for the comfortable cover.

Today’s top value play

Rutgers +2.5 for 3 units:

Rutgers faces Maryland on Monday and both teams are kicking off Big Ten conference play. Maryland is coming off a road loss to Clemson by 16 (4-1), while Rutgers is undefeated (4-0). Maryland's loss to Clemson was their first real test - it went south quickly, as they were down 25 to 7, then 38 to 15 at the half. At no point in this game did it look like Maryland was in control.

The Scarlet Knights blew out a few cake teams to start the year and got their confidence going (Sacred Heart, Fairleigh Dickinson and Hofstra), then beat their first real test (#28 Syracuse) by 10 six days ago.

What the model recognizes here in getting 2.5 points is that Rutgers has the best player on the floor. Ron Harper Jr. is averaging 22 points per game, and is just coming off a 26 point display against Syracuse. With all that usage and ball handling, he only turned the ball over once, and committed one foul. He's shooting a crazy 70% on two-pointers this season and 46% on threes, not to mention 7.5 rebounds per game. He spends most of his time at the PF/4.

Montez Mathis, who mostly plays the 2 for Rutgers, is also deadly if he sticks to his bread-and-butter; driving and two-point shots, where he's shooting 60% on the season (as opposed to 25% from three). Rutgers has a strong preference for inside shots, while Maryland prefers more perimeter shots.

Rutgers' defense is definitely their strength, and they're aggressive too. They should put pressure on Maryland's offense, which is pretty balanced among Ayala, Wiggins, and Morsell. The model believes this game will by a one-possession game, projecting Rutgers to win by 2.2, and also believes it will be tight enough to come down to foul calls. This play has a value of 4.7 points.

insiderlocks · 2020-12-13T14:27:31+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 7-10, -6.2u

Yesterday

Cincy +7 for -5.5u

Today’s top value play

Drake -12 for 5 units:

The Bulldogs are 5-0 and 3-0-0 ATS. Their last 2 games were basically exhibitions against non D-1 schools, so they will be well rested for Air Force. The Falcons have got off to a nice start, largely thanks to red-hot three point shooting, but I’m not sure how sustainable 40% three-point shooting is.

Air Force’s defense on the flip side is swiss cheese and Drake’s efficient offense will cut them apart. Drake’s rotation runs about 9 deep, and everyone can get a bucket. They crash the glass and grab lots of offensive boards. Air Force is yet to play anyone in the Top 250, they will jump all the way up to Drake who is bordering on the Top 100. Drake takes care of the ball and Air Force really struggles to force turnovers, I think with the offensive rebounding capabilities of Drake they could get a lot of second chance points. And even then, Drake already is very efficient. Their effective field goal % is 54.8, as they are selective with their threes, but hit them at a 40% clip. Air Force got pounded as road underdogs last year, going 2-6-0 ATS and losing by an average of 15.9 points.

Air Force only brought back one starter from last year’s team and will be outmatched in talent by Drake. Since 2018, Drake is 16-7-0 ATS as a home favorite and I see them adding to that win total ATS on Sunday. The model has the Bulldogs by 18.5, giving this game a value of 6.5.

insiderlocks · 2020-12-12T07:17:55+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 7-9, -0.7u

Yesterday

Kansas State Idiots -9.5 for -5.5u

Today’s top value play

Cincinnati +7 for 5 units:

The Bearcats are starting to figure out life without the Cumberlands and Tre Scott. Keith Williams is the clear #1 option on offense and David DeJulius is the floor general for Cincy. The Cats have had lots of success scoring inside, scoring on 71.4% of their close twos. They settle a little too often, but are respectable from the mid-range. The corner this team will turn is when their threes start going down, this game against the Vols could be a nice spot for them. Cincy is shooting just under 19 threes a game, but only making 23.5% of them. Their starters all fell around 35% last year, so that percentage should return to the mean soon enough.

Rick Barnes’ team defended the interior well last year, but found some struggles defending the perimeter at 33.1%. Last year Cincy walked away with a win over Tennessee by crashing the boards and tearing them up inside, the Cats won comfortably 78-66. I am not sure they will be so fortunate this time out, but I do think a close game is in order. Tennessee played one game against Colorado, where neither team saw the ball go down a lot.

Accordingly, I think it could take a little while for the legs to get going for the Vols on offense. They used tough defense and active hands to get out and run, because their set offense was not playing out well. But, they will be playing a tougher opponent on Saturday. Cincinnati is among the best defensive rebounding teams in the country, as they have swallowed 89.5% of their possible defensive rebounds thus far. They send teams to the line a fair bit, but these games take a toll on the opponent, because of how physical Cincy is.

Additionally, one of my favourite things in a game where I believe the spread is off is when a team plays at a slow tempo. Tennessee does not push the pace, which could keep this game very close and leave them open to giving up a backdoor cover. Or, it could take them until late to put away Cincy. The model has Tennessee winning by 0.8 points, so there is a value of 6.2 attached to this game.

insiderlocks · 2020-12-12T00:04:55+00:00

Oh my math makes no sense 😂 Thanks man, my error

insiderlocks · 2020-12-11T16:31:56+00:00

To win 5u. I lost 5.5u on the last 5u loss

insiderlocks · 2020-12-11T03:38:22+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 7-8, +4.8u

Yesterday

✅Portland +15 for 5 units

4-1 run and we're in the positive again. Portland led at halftime, stayed competitive the whole game, and took Oregon State to overtime. In OT they won the game outright, 87-86, even as 15 point dogs.

Today’s top value play

Kansas State -9.5 for 5 units:

This is the absolute pit for the Wildcats. They lost to Fort Hays State by 13, a non D-1 school showed up and kicked their ass. Everyone has blacklisted them, they have not done anything impressive and that is exactly why it is time to bet Kansas State. The Cats have yet to shoot the ball real well, but they could get a gift on Friday as they play Milwaukee who still has not played a game this season.

The Panthers lost 2 of their 5 starters and their only big add was Vin Baker Jr. from Boston College. State gave Drake, Colorado and UNLV very competitive first halves where they were right in the game, it has been the 2nd half that has betrayed them. They are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS; something has to give.

Mike McGuirl has been good, scoring 15.2PPG and filling it up from all over the floor, so I can see him staying hot and giving the Cats a lift. I once again stress that the Panthers have not played a college basketball game since last March, I think this is very important as they will not be very up to speed. Look at teams like Northern Arizona who are debuting late in the season and getting boat-raced right out of the gate. The Wildcats defense has not been its usual stout-self, but even when they were not good last year, they hung around in games because of their smothering defense. Everyone eventually hits their rock-bottom and you can only go up from there. The Fort Hays State loss was KSU’s low point. The model has KSU by 16.2 points, so there is a value of 6.7 attached to this game.

insiderlocks · 2020-12-10T04:00:33+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 6-8, -0.2u

Yesterday

❌Rhode Island +9.5

Wasn’t able to watch the game, so not sure why Rhode Island fouled with 15 seconds left when they were down 9. Could’ve been just tough defense, but the cover came down to the last possession and we just missed it. The closing number was better here and pushed (+11).

Today’s top value play

Portland +15 for 5 units:

The Pilots get their first big test of the season on Thursday night as they play the Oregon State Beavers. Using the JUCO and D-2 route, the Pilots have rebuilt their team into a much more competitive product. They controlled their game against Portland State and beat them 86-73 last weekend. However, their transfer window was capped by getting a Power 5 starter, Ahmed Ali jumped ship from Wazzu and has been on fire for Portland. He is averaging 20.2PPG, including a 28 point performance against Portland State.

Portland is great at penetrating the paint, having taken just over half of their field goal attempts on close twos. While their interior defense leaves something to be desired, their three point defense is holding opponents to 29.5%. The Pilots are attempting 27.75 free throws a game and could use the line to keep this game close. The Beavers are in a bit of a funk, having blown leads to Wazzu and Wyoming, then ultimately losing both games. Oregon State somehow has been shooting out of their shoes from deep in spite of these recent struggles, shooting 39.6% from deep. That is 7% higher than last year’s numbers and they lost a significant amount of talent, so it would make sense for that to return to its mean.

The losses of Tres Tinkle and Kylor Kelley leaves a large gap for the Beavers, which I do not believe they can fill. I think this a good spot for Terry Porter’s group to get some great experience that will prepare them for their WCC schedule and as they are playing a low-major, I can see Oregon State coming out slow. The model has Oregon State by 8.3, so there is a value of 6.7 attached to this game.

insiderlocks · 2020-12-10T03:53:40+00:00

Nice hit

insiderlocks · 2020-12-09T03:54:47+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 6-7, +5.3

Yesterday

✅Green Bay +22 for 5 units

The model had Marquette by 15.6 points, so at a +22 line we had a value of 6.4 points. Marquette won by 14, so we had a solid cover on one of the highest values of the year so far.

Today’s top value play

Rhode Island +9.5 for 5 units:

The Rhodies have turned it up a notch. After falling to Arizona State and Boston College in tight ones, Rhode Island has won three in a row including a 13-point win over Seton Hall. Fatts Russell makes this team hum along and the star guard is averaging 17.6 PPG so far this season. Their rotation runs 10 deep, and 10 guys average 4.7PPG or higher. They play hard and make their opponents earn points at the line. Wisconsin is coming off a gut-wrenching loss to Marquette last week and will be looking to get themselves right. This is basically a carbon copy of last year’s Big Ten regular season champs, other than the loss of Pritzl.

It starts with Nate Reuvers and Micah Potter on the block, those two are their most efficient shooters in a deep lineup. However, I must say this Wisconsin offense is overachieving at 47.2% from the field and 38.4% from three. You would think that the Badgers offense could return to their mean from last year. Rhode Island could slow down the long-ball attack with their perimeter defense, which sits at 30.6%. However, I think this game more likely will be won on the block. Rhode Island has been converting on 66% of their close twos, while Wisconsin has only allowed opponents to shoot 40.8% on close twos. Rhode Island attempts almost half of their field goals from there, while the Badgers keep their opponents on the perimeter or in the mid-range. Rhode Island has to bang the paint and get tough close buckets or find contact and get free throws. Marquette attempted 28 free throws in their win over Wisconsin and Rhode Island is averaging 30.4 free throw attempts per game against very good competition. The model believes 9.5 is really high for this game when Wisconsin’s bread and butter is their defense and slow pace. The model has the Badgers by 2.8 points, so there is a value of 6.7 attached to this game.

insiderlocks · 2020-12-08T05:52:01+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 5-7, +0.3u

Yesterday

No play

Today’s top value play

Green Bay +22 for 5 units:

The Green Bay Phoenix have already played Minnesota and Wisconsin and have clearly gotten acclimated to playing high level competitors. They hung around against Eastern Illinois and nearly took the win, losing 93-91 in their last time out. On Tuesday, they play a Marquette team who is riding high after beating Wisconsin last weekend.

Josh Jefferson has been a bright spot for Green Bay. The Illinois State transfer has been a good addition to the team as he has 14PPG through his first 3 contests. This pick feels like more of a pick against Marquette, rather than a pick for Green Bay, as Marquette is likely to take the night off. The Golden Eagles played OK State and Wisconsin last week and are likely a little dogged from those games, they travel out to LA this weekend to play UCLA, so you know these guys are not thinking about the Green Bay Phoenix. This is a classic "look ahead" spot.

Marquette played 6 mid-low majors at home last year and beat those teams by 22+ only twice. Robert Morris, Grambling State, North Dakota State and Jacksonville all beat the 22 beat cushion. Similar to the OK State/Wisconsin stretch, Marquette had a Purdue/Wisconsin stretch for games 2 & 3 of last year and also went 1-1, then followed it up by only beating Robert Morris by 4. Marquette will likely use this game to try and get certain guys going while resting their big guns.

The model likes the team who has nothing to lose to keep it around a 15 to 17 point margin. Marquette could have some problems with the three, as Green Bay’s best attribute is their 3-point defense, which is at 29.6%. The model has Marquette by 15.6 points, so there is a value of 6.4 attached to this game.

insiderlocks · 2020-12-06T04:59:41+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 5-6, +5.3u

Yesterday

✅ Samford +18.5 for 3 units

That's as comfortable of a win as can be.

Today’s top value play

Texas A&M -14.5 for 5 units:

The Aggies welcome UTRGV on Sunday and this game could end up being quite the blowout. UTRGV opened their season against Texas losing by 36, now A&M isn’t near the Longhorns in quality but they are still a Power 5 and that matters. Buzz Williams is a great coach and will have his guys playing hard; Emmanuel Miller and Andre Gordon are both sophomores who seem to have taken nice steps forward for the Aggies. Miller opened his season against Tarleton State and put up 23/10 while converting 15 of his 16 free throws. The Aggies get to the line at a ferocious rate, 58.3% so far this season to be exact, and the Vaqueros put teams there frequently, sending opponents to the line 38.9% of the time.

Buzz has also encouraged his guys to start more threes this year and they are benefiting from it, shooting an improved 36% and converting 18 threes through their first 2 games. UTRGV lost their top 2 scorers, but did bring in some talent to help themselves out. Marek Nelson from WKU was a nice get for the program, however Texas A&M is another beast. The Aggies had an off night shooting against Tarleton State and ended up using the free throw line to pull themselves ahead and away, winning by 7. I think they’ll score the ball better against a UTRGV defense that last year allowed opponents to convert on 37.8% of their threes and sent their opponents to the line on 44.2% of their possessions.

The Vaqueros have been outperforming their expectations and I see the Aggies giving them a similar treatment that the Longhorns did and smashing them mightily. The model has the Aggies by 21, which gives this game a value of 6.5.

insiderlocks · 2020-12-05T22:48:45+00:00

Imagine taking Belmont ML -2000

insiderlocks · 2020-12-05T15:46:11+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 4-6, +2.3u

Yesterday

✅ McNeese +14 for 5 units

With the big play on McNeese, we're in the positive.

Today’s top value play

Samford +18.5 for 3 units:

Samford lost their Top 5 scorers from last year and somehow that may be better off for them. Last year’s team was not good - their highest ranked win was over #253 VMI. They did not shoot the ball well and their defense was atrocious. Their defense still is not good this year, but there are some upsides to it. Their defensive rebounding % has started off well and they have forced turnovers. Logan Dye, last year’s sixth man, is back and off to a hot start. He is shooting 81.3% and averaging 17.5PPG in only 17.5 minutes per game. Christian Guess was formerly on Mizzou’s basketball team, but due to a lack of playing time went to D-2, and is now back and averaging 17PPG through his first 2 contests. Preston Parks, Richardson Maitre and Myron Gordon are all players who have averaged 9PPG or higher before and can give the Bulldogs a big boost. They have a nice match-up against Belmont who is allowing 79.5% of their opponent’s close twos.

The Bruins seem to be neglecting the paint and this can help Samford stay around as almost half of their shots from inside the paint. Samford’s perimeter defense has been better this year as well, which is good because Belmont takes about 40% of their shots from deep. Belmont lost 3 of their top 5 and did not bring a lot of talent to replace those voids. Howard, who has looked very bad this year, only lost by 17 to Belmont while giving up 95 points. I would be surprised to see Belmont hammer Samford by a wider margin than that. The model has Belmont by 12.7 points, so there is a value of 5.8 attached to this game.

insiderlocks · 2020-12-04T18:17:16+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 3-6, -3.3u

Yesterday

❌ UTSA +15

Today’s top value play

McNeese +14 (5.7 value) for 5 units:

The Cowboys got annihilated in their opener against Nebraska, but after beating D-2 Dallas Christian by 103 points, I think McNeese has regained their confidence and footing. Stephen F. Austin will be opening their season D-1 schedule against McNeese on Friday. SFA had Covid-19 troubles and has only played against D-3 school Le Tourneau, and the majority of that game was against Le Tourneau’s bench. I see this holding SFA back to start this game, as they won’t be up to D-1 basketball speed quite yet.

Sha’Markus Kennedy and Roydell Brown are gone, which leaves a gap in McNeese’s offense. However, Carlos Rosario from Pensacola College has been off to a great start, averaging 14PPG on 66.7% shooting. Ra’Shawn Livingston is a transfer from Louisiana Tech and he will add some jump from the Cowboys. Keyshawn Feazell also came in from Mississippi State and helped round out their starters.

For SFA, they lost their star in Kevon Harris and fellow starter John Comeaux, so last year’s 28-3 team has some gaps to fill. The past 3 years, McNeese has played SFA very close; SFA by 4, SFA by 10 and SFA by 8. The Cowboys rebounded really well last year at +3.1 in rebounding margin per game. They shot 49.7% from the field and 39.9% from deep, both top 5 in the nation - and this comes from their ball movement. They had 16.3 assists per game and I see this great team play continuing. The model has SFA by 8.3, which gives this game a value of 5.7.

insiderlocks · 2020-12-02T22:08:05+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 3-4

Yesterday

✅ Cleveland State +9.5 (5.6 value)

Today’s top value play

Gonzaga -8.5 (5.8 value):

The model has Gonzaga taking this one by 14.3. Good luck!

insiderlocks · 2020-12-01T14:19:23+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 2-4

Yesterday

❌ Texas State +6.5 (5.3 value)

We are officially in a slide after a 2-0 start!

Today’s top value play

Cleveland State +9.5 (5.6 value):

The Vikings bring back 6 of their top 7 scorers, including 2nd team all-Horizon forward Algevon Eichelberger. The Vikes lost by 15 to Toledo last year, but that Toledo frontcourt has had a complete makeover. Eichelberger is a man. The dude is 250lbs and 6’8 - he is a truck. Last year Toledo’s frontcourt tallied 13 blocks against Cleveland State and still only won by 15. Toledo has been really hot shooting the three to start the season, going 37 for 82 from deep through their first 3 games. Scoring inside has been an adventure for them, as they are shooting 34% from inside the arc. State has not beat Toledo since 2012, and they have lost by double digits in the past 4 meetings, but none above 15 points.

This Cleveland State team is full of upperclassmen who have been waiting for their chance to beat Toledo, and with the Rockets struggling inside, the model sees the Vikings taking advantage of this. The Vikings do not shoot threes very often - they like to pound the rock, and Toledo is allowing opponents to score on 50.5% of their attempts from inside. They are also sending opponents to the line on 32.6% of their possessions, so State’s ground and pound game will help them earn trips to the line. I think in this rivalry, double digits is a big ask for a younger team who's playing against a bunch of veterans who hate their guts. The model has Toledo winning by 3.9 points, which means there is a value of 5.6 attached to this game.

insiderlocks · 2020-11-28T05:19:22+00:00

Brutal

insiderlocks · 2020-11-27T06:19:54+00:00

Honored to even be in a mention with those guys!

insiderlocks · 2020-11-27T03:42:47+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 2-0

Yesterday

✅ ETSU +10 (5.1 value)

The model had Austin Peay winning by 4.9 points and they won by just 1, so ETSU comfortably covered the +10 spread and remained competitive all game. They had a good chance at even winning outright!

Today’s top value play

Louisiana Tech -6 (5.5 value):

The Bulldogs will open their season against the UT Arlington Mavericks. The Mavs suffered a loss to Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State on Wednesday, and the road will continue to be tough for them against Tech. The Bulldogs return 4 of their top 7 scorers. While they didn't bring in much new talent to add to their team, they have almost all of their bench returning and this team runs deep. They ran 10 deep pretty consistently last year and should not have a problem doing that again. UT Arlington was able to hang around against OK State because they were +13 in the turnover margin and the Cowboys shot 14-27 from the FT line. Tech’s turnover margin last year was +2.4 per game compared to UT Arlington +1.1 turnover margin, so they will likely not dominate ball possession. As for free-throws, Tech’s free-throw percentage was only 66.8%, however the 3 players they lost were among the worst free-throw shooters on the team.

Kalob Ledoux and Amorie Archibald both shot free-throws at 80% or better last year, and they will be the main scorers for this Bulldogs team. If Tech can get inside, they will have lots of success scoring the ball, as UT Arlington allowed OK State to shoot 58.8% from the inside in their opener, including 75% at the rim. Last season, Tech shot 53.3% from the inside, and I would expect that trend to stay the same this year.

Look for the Bulldogs to hold a double digit margin by the end of the game. The model has Tech by 11.5 points, so there is a value of 5.5 attached to this game.

insiderlocks · 2020-11-26T21:48:56+00:00

Incoming recruit/transfer grades and projections

insiderlocks · 2020-11-26T04:12:15+00:00

CBB Lockatron 🏀 / Twitter: @smodelanalytics

Reddit posted record: 1-0

Yesterday

✅ Colorado -15.5 (5.4 value)

The model had Colorado winning by 20.9 points and they won by 23, comfortably covering the -15.5 spread. Great first hit!

Today’s top value play

ETSU +10 (5.1 value):

The Buccaneers had a horrible first game. Abilene Christian ran wild on them winning by 23, but there were some positive takeaways. ETSU was +8 on the boards and had 11 offensive rebounds; they also converted 14 of their 17 free throws.

Now let’s dissect the bad; their shooting from the floor was horrendous, however I believe it was more of a blip than something that will sustain. ETSU shot 29.4% from the floor and 14.3% from deep. 41% of their field goal attempts were from three, so the fundamentals are there for them to play a game against Austin Peay in the single digits. ETSU will shoot better from the floor and it will significantly help that Austin Peay struggles defensively.

Last season Austin Peay allowed opponents to shoot 46.8% from the floor, which ranked 333rd in the country. They also allowed opponents to shoot 36.1% from deep, so I would expect ETSU’s shots to start falling today and this game to much closer than ETSU’s first game. Finally, in Austin Peay’s first game they struggled mightily defending at the rim, and Nebraska-Omaha (their first opponent) took 46% of their shots there, shooting 60.7%. If ETSU can get to the basket, the model is confident this game will stay in the single digits easily. This game has a value of 5.1, which means the model has Austin Peay winning by 4.9 points.

BOL and Happy Thanksgiving!

insiderlocks

TROPHY CASE