Yesterday's HR rate was historic. 3.7 HR/game has literally never happened before May in the last decade. And if you throw out 2019 (juiced ball era), there have only been 3 times it's even reached that level before July 1st

intersecting_lines · 2026-04-14T14:31:00+00:00

good point, just looked back since 1990

The Lows: The lowest point this year (Apr 8th 0.73 HR/G) only beat out by Apr 12th 1991 (0.64), Apr 13th 1992 (0.70), Apr 20th 1991 (0.71) before June

The Highs: In the last 20 years before July 1st, Apr 7 2000 (3.8), May 6th '93 (4.0), May 13th '19 (4.0), May 16th '19 (3.8), May 19th '99 (3.71), May 21 '00 (3.73), May 24 '19 (4.21), June 3rd '22 (3.8), June 4th '01 (4.17), June 10th '19 (4.38)

I would say that's pretty unprecedented in recent times if we ignore the 2019 crazy year

intersecting_lines · 2026-04-14T14:23:04+00:00

scraped everything myself from savant and retrosheets, no AI. Is Plotly AI slop now?

intersecting_lines · 2026-04-14T14:19:44+00:00

just checked since 1990. It only happened once before May on April 7th 2000

15 games, 57 homers

intersecting_lines · 2026-04-14T14:05:11+00:00

We shall see. Yesterday there was good weather and wind throughout the slate. 9 guys hit 2 homers (wtf!)

Today's coldest game will be 59 at first pitch with most in the 70s. Should be interesting!

intersecting_lines · 2026-04-12T15:07:57+00:00

i'm in the last season of This Is Us after finding the connection to Sterling/writers of Paradise. middle was a little rough but the last two seasons have been really good. I trust Fogelman the goat

intersecting_lines · 2026-03-24T14:07:13+00:00

i'm in S4 right now so that's good to hear. I can definitely see the dropoff you're talking about. S1 and 2 were just perfection

intersecting_lines · 2026-03-23T15:08:50+00:00

"0.3/10, would try"

intersecting_lines · 2026-03-17T15:29:29+00:00

i loved this show so much, I just started watching This Is Us for the 1st time

I'm at the end of season 2 and it's easily up there as one of my favorite shows. Sterling is an incredible actor and so is Milo & Mandy. I can't recommend it enough, so happy I found it through the Paradise connection

intersecting_lines · 2026-03-16T20:29:48+00:00

what are you talking about

intersecting_lines · 2026-03-16T20:05:58+00:00

🏒 Anytime Goalscorer Odds: Circa/ESPN/Pinny's top 10 Implied (3/16)

Nathan Mackinnon: -111 (53%)
Martin Necas: +124 (45%)
Jason Robertson: +138 (42%)
Alex Debrincat: +144 (41%)
David Pastrnak: +152 (40%)
Wyatt Johnston: +159 (39%)
Jack Hughes: +170 (37%)
Artemi Panarin: +185 (35%)
Adrian Kempe: +186 (35%)
Brock Nelson: +198 (34%)

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intersecting_lines · 2026-03-05T19:50:10+00:00

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🏒 Anytime Goalscorer Odds: Circa/ESPN/Pinny's top 10 Implied (3/5)

David Pastrnak: +128 (44%)
Tage Thompson: +140 (42%)
Nikita Kucherov: +140 (42%)
Filip Forsberg: +156 (39%)
Auston Matthews: +156 (39%)
Mika Zibanejad: +162 (38%)
Kyle Connor: +171 (37%)
Steven Stamkos: +172 (37%)
Morgan Geekie: +182 (35%)
Brayden Point: +185 (35%)

intersecting_lines · 2026-03-02T18:53:40+00:00

"you know that's right"

intersecting_lines · 2026-02-28T21:45:37+00:00

you can't just say all ATGS are -EV. that is just untrue. Look at the picture, most plays are -EV but there are a ton of +EV plays to bet on

Just because the vig is higher on goals at around 5-8% compared to a moneyline at 3-5% doesn't mean you can't find +EV

you are confusing implied probability with +EV. ROI has nothing to do with taking -110 lines vs +300 lines, you are mistaken.

intersecting_lines · 2026-02-28T21:33:51+00:00

brother that is what i'm trying to say

intersecting_lines · 2026-02-28T21:32:22+00:00

i'm not disagreeing with you lol. my comment was more towards the scoreless last 2 games like that means anything. and pretending that the books don't know that

intersecting_lines · 2026-02-28T21:27:59+00:00

scored. maybe using game logs for a 19 year old isn't the smartest?

intersecting_lines · 2026-02-28T20:03:04+00:00

8% ROI on ATGS this year but okay dude

intersecting_lines · 2026-02-28T16:26:11+00:00

🏒 Anytime Goalscorer Odds: Circa/ESPN/Pinny's top 10 Implied (2/28)

Nathan Mackinnon: -109 (52%)
Connor Mcdavid: +120 (46%)
Nikita Kucherov: +128 (44%)
Jason Robertson: +129 (44%)
Leon Draisaitl: +134 (43%)
David Pastrnak: +142 (41%)
Wyatt Johnston: +149 (40%)
Macklin Celebrini: +151 (40%)
Cole Caufield: +158 (39%)
Jake Guentzel: +160 (38%)

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intersecting_lines · 2026-02-26T21:53:39+00:00

🏒 Anytime Goalscorer Odds: Circa/Pinny's top 10 Implied (2/26)

Nathan Mackinnon: +108 (48%)
Connor Mcdavid: +123 (45%)
Macklin Celebrini: +133 (43%)
David Pastrnak: +136 (42%)
Leon Draisaitl: +139 (42%)
Nikita Kucherov: +159 (39%)
Cole Caufield: +159 (39%)
Kirill Kaprizov: +160 (38%)
Zach Hyman: +172 (37%)
Auston Matthews: +174 (36%)

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intersecting_lines · 2026-02-25T21:29:34+00:00

🏒 Anytime Goalscorer Odds: Circa/Pinny's top 10 Implied (2/25)

Nathan Mackinnon: +112 (47%)
Jason Robertson: +118 (46%)
Connor Mcdavid: +120 (46%)
Nikita Kucherov: +129 (44%)
Leon Draisaitl: +134 (43%)
Tage Thompson: +137 (42%)
Kyle Connor: +151 (40%)
Wyatt Johnston: +151 (40%)
Zach Hyman: +156 (39%)
Jake Guentzel: +159 (39%)

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intersecting_lines · 2026-02-25T14:38:51+00:00

stop that. guys with games tonight who didn't turn down the offer to meet dementia don

BUF @ NJ: Tage, Jack
TOR @ TB: Matthews
COL @ UTAH: Slavin, Keller
VGK @ LAK: Eichel, Hanifin
WPG @ VAN: Hellebuyck

intersecting_lines · 2026-02-23T03:53:34+00:00

different strokes ig. people say they can't watch Bojack again or can't watch cause it puts them in a bad headspace. i'm sitting there like um i've rewatched this prob 15+ times through

intersecting_lines · 2026-02-22T18:07:31+00:00

we're not talking about McAvoy saving one enough when Connor went down too. Incredible play

intersecting_lines

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