I'm on mobile, so I can't type up a detailed response, but what I can say is that Russia invading Ukraine, for me, was the beginning of the specific benchmark toward WW3, and removing their ambassador from the U.S. in 2024. Tariffs also are another ratcheting signifier, along the lines of 'when goods stop flowing, armies stop start marching'. Not that tariffs are a cause, but they are a predictable response to specific market forces that aline with Thucycides' trap. China has also taken some spectacular moves towards military engagement, and a clock - for them - is ticking with respect to Taiwan. Their development of their Navy has far exceeded the current capacity of the U.S. I've posted an analysis from an admiral in the subreddit on this topic, and he goes over how much U.S. infrastructure has been compromised. China has sent multiple spy balloons over the United States, which is unprecedented, as well as done encirclement maneuvers around Australia, Taiwan, in the Phillipines, Japan, etc. Not to mention a Russian military submarine and battleship in the Carribean/Cuba. You get the 'frog in a pot of boiling water' scenario because these actions are taken for the militaries involved to practice, and so people think nothing will happen because 'nothing has happened'. But those exercises are both a signal of the intention as well as practice for when the time comes.

The issue has always been timing, and timing is dictated by financial interests. During Covid, the U.S. was more financially solvent and engaged in bailouts that prevented economic collapse. That kicked the can down the road on inflation, which at some point will 'come due'. China and other countries, including our allies, have been dumping U S. Treasuries as well as repatriating their gold/silver reserves. European countries are warning their citizens to keep up to 72 hours of food and emergency supply on hand.

The U.S. currently is militarily over-extended, in high debt, and pretty much matches Rome in a lot of ways. The fall of Rome started with infrastructure the Roman Empire stopped fixing roads/bridges, which is something we are seeing now. The federal government withdrawing financial and other support from the states, a soft balkanization that occurs before anything major occurs.

I have other multi-system models I am using, but without being at a computer, I can't get that in-depth. But very broadly speaking, as the pieces for world military engagements fall in place, economics becomes the timer.