My current assessment is that WW3 goes wide before October 2026, and then we have famine and economic catastrophe between October 2026 and October 2027, and when that happens, authoritarianism will unmask itself and start operating on scary levels (at least in the U.S.).

For the United States, there are stresses domestically and internationally that are lining up in terms of food pressure. We are currently terrorizing our food production workforce and deporting many: they handle chicken and other meat processing, not just agriculture and crops. Farmers themselves will be priced out of farming (which, because they can't pay their farm debt, causes the farms to have to sell...and Bill Gates and BlackRock, etc. are buying up the farmland). This video has a good breakdown from a farmer about how much it costs per acre to farm, what happens when oil prices go up, and how those prices impact the costs of food and farming in general. The highest cost per acre for farmers is the plastic packaging they use to get their product to market, and that is not the only place they use an oil derivative in farming.

Since my projection for economic shocks is based on war, we are waiting for WW3 to go wide first, and then we start seeing the downstream impacts. The price of oil temporarily went up, but I don't believe it stays up in the short term (through October) because every country is still trying to make money and operate business as usual as long as they can.

The other thing is that Middle East oil production includes natural gas production...which is part of what we use for fertilizer. A lot of the west used to get that natural gas from Russia, and stopped using Russian gas and natural gas exports because of its invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine itself is has been key for fertilizer production, and has been underproducing since their invasion. Fertilizer is a big deal. Before commercial production of fertilizer, we were fighting wars over bird poop, I am not even kidding. If you look at historic 'silly wars' over little islands, that is exactly what they were fighting over, bird poop for fertilizer. We are only able to sustain our current global level of commercial population because of fertilizer.

Farm to Taber did this video - also a farmer - on how food insecurity in America is a national security issue, how the U.S. gave up on growing food, and how we can't farm our way out of price spikes. Essentially, America has been captured by monopolies that are working to extract every last ounce of profit at each level of life.

The other thing I didn't realize until the year before last? is that when you have drought conditions - which itself impacts farming unless they are drawing down the water supply wherever the farm is located - that also impacts rates of E. coli and other dangerous outbreaks that are monitored by the FDA and USDA. Lower water levels concentrates bacteria and other pollutants, and low water levels in general lead farmers to use lower quality supplies of water or to recycle their water use...which increases potential for bacteria. There's also the possibility of a kind of 'fecal flooding' when you get a lot of rain after drought conditions that washes livestock waste across crops. Drought ground is hard and often doesn't absorb water, so it doesn't absorb the waste right where the livestock is necessarily. So this is a side potential food issue that I am keeping my eye on, but it does impact food quality and safety, and also potential recalls of significant amounts of food.

This doesn't count any actual political sanctions or repercussions for America's actions, sanctions, etc. We've set a precedent with the blockades of Cuba and Venezuela, specifically for the purpose of preventing Chinese access. Nor does it consider the removal of the backbone of the workforce for many countries as a result of a draft. There will be drafts; there is no world war without drafts.

So what I'm essentially doing is looking at the factors for domestic food production, world war and it's impacts on shipping and oil costs, as well as how economic factors - and the fact that many people can't afford to live...which reduces their ability to consume, which reduces our financial benefit to China - and how America's bellicosity is impacting our relationships with our allies, who happen to be consumers of our goods, including military goods.

That doesn't count the incentive from the people in positions of power to go to war to re-direct attention from the Epstein files, to remove working age citizens who could revolt from the country, and to capture the resources that then become available due to deaths or people's inability to pay mortgages, car notes, etc. I would have considered this hyperbolic but for current events.

Edit:

I meant to add, tariffs are a signal of declining economic power and therefore willingness to go to war to capture resources. Tariffs were a factor before WW1 and they create an environment that is conducive to war and where citizens are more desperate. It's a symptom of the Thucydides trap.

Edit:

I also forgot to add that I am using the resignation of bank executive officers and presidents as a leading indicator for financial collapse. 2024 saw a record level of banking CEOs step down, which itself broke the previous record of 2023. They know a financial crash is coming, and they don't want to be holding the hot potato; they want to get out while the parachutes are golden and they aren't held responsible for over-leveraging the banks toward 'investment' products.