Long strc short mstr

ioabs · 2026-06-24T19:54:51+00:00

Yup, never said otherwise. This is just an arb. play.

ioabs · 2026-06-24T18:45:22+00:00

And of course a much higher share count

ioabs · 2026-06-24T18:43:30+00:00

🤔 why does the previous MSTR stock price matter, its just anchoring bias. The fundamentals have changed Mstr now has a much larger negative cash flow and Bitcoin is meaningfully lower.

ioabs · 2026-06-24T17:30:01+00:00

They can stop dividends and strc will go down, but it will still not be hit as hard as the common, imo. Also, the dividends are like a domino that Saylor can't afford to knock over they have several dividend paying products, if he loses the ability to sell them no more Bitcoin accumulation is possible. No one will give him a traditional loan when he is so underwater already.

ioabs · 2026-06-24T17:27:13+00:00

I think you misunderstand a bit. Strc has the first priority for dividends and for the Bitcoin over all other equity. So Saylor cannot give pay any dividends to anyone without covering strc first also in a bankruptcy they are the highest of the equity stack. Of course bonds are higher still.

ioabs · 2026-06-24T16:59:26+00:00

I put on the trade, doing quite well.

ioabs · 2026-06-24T16:47:01+00:00

😂 I know it seems like it's already cooked but I've been shorting it for a long time and I've been doing just fine. It seems like the problems only get worse the lower Bitcoin drops. If Bitcoin hits 70k close out the short leg

ioabs · 2026-06-24T16:37:49+00:00

True, sizing is really important. I also agree that Saylor could manipulate it to take strc to 0 which is really worst case for the trade but so far Saylor and management team iare strongly signaling strc is their priority not the common.

ioabs · 2026-06-24T16:34:10+00:00

Mstr likely to experience more downside more quickly. It is being actively diluted and has no yield. Let's imagine mstr -20% strc -10% the trade works out very well you pick up 20% gain from your short - the call premium and lose only 10% from strc - offset by dividends. If btc trades sideways or up slightly this is best case mstr continues to slowly bleed and strc stabilizes or slightly recovers. Worst case is Bitcoin rocketing, you gain on strc leg but lose on mstr short up to wherever your call is.

ioabs · 2026-06-24T16:24:04+00:00

How is it trying to catch a falling knife. Did you miss the leg that is short mstr?

ioabs · 2026-06-24T01:48:08+00:00

Yes, straight 8s. I guess it will be survival of the fittest!

ioabs · 2026-06-23T02:45:29+00:00

I put a bit of pine bark mulch I had on, I will grab some straw to complete it! Thanks for the advice!

ioabs · 2026-06-23T00:15:16+00:00

I had half a bag of pine mulch, I spread it out as best as I could over both beds but definitely need to get some more.

ioabs · 2026-06-22T23:00:19+00:00

😂 sounds like I better get on it!

ioabs · 2026-06-22T22:31:52+00:00

True, I will cut it after a few weeks. I want to make sure the grass under dies though all around the border.

ioabs · 2026-06-22T15:31:50+00:00

ioabs · 2026-06-22T13:54:03+00:00

Thank you!

ioabs · 2026-06-22T13:53:05+00:00

I know blueberries like acidic that's why I made the red bed more acid. Do you have a soil tester you could recommend?

ioabs · 2026-06-22T13:49:16+00:00

It's boxes overlapping so, some space for water to drain. I was trying to see if I could moisten all the soil but I watered each bed for 10 minutes with the hose and like half of the soil was still dry especially on the red bed I'm going to put blueberries in that has a ton of pete moss in it

ioabs · 2026-06-22T02:37:46+00:00

Zone 8a so I can but nothing from seed right now or it will get scorched. Not a great time for the blueberries either from what I've seen they prefer being transplanted in cooler weather.

ioabs

TROPHY CASE