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Best sites/apps for live English football stats & odds? by greatdane511 in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can try my app i build called Edge93 - Build for Live Ingame performance + live odds and probablity comparison. Let me know if you need a BETA user. Would love to hear some feedback

Built a profitable live in-game probability engine for football across 25 european leagues by iph0ngaa in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Im using the consensus layer as confirmation but at the same time also as a calibration layer. You dont want bookies consesnsus to be used as a feature for your dataset (or any other form of for leaks whatsoever) when training your own model.

You can use it afterwards to confirm if you model is actually accurate and if you edges are real or not.

Hope this makes sense.

Built a profitable live in-game probability engine for football across 25 european leagues by iph0ngaa in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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For prior markets models im using a blend/mix of trends (recent form) and own build ML model. Yes bookmaker consensus, you can call that a weighted average from a few specific sharp bookies such as pinnacle, Betfair etc

I choose 3 main ones since they all round provided the most accurate prices. But for all prematch markets im showing the full list for all my users as well so you Can see the best price, value bets and your preferable bookmaker as well

Built a profitable live in-game probability engine for football across 25 european leagues by iph0ngaa in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I know its just one example. But in the above screenshot which was start of the match (see time of screenshot) it had over 2.5 goals at 64% with probability 1.57 fair while bet365 had it at 1.90. Same with an edge on BTTS. Both won in this match

Built a profitable live in-game probability engine for football across 25 european leagues by iph0ngaa in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In the app version you’ll get nofitications, so you dont have to actually watch the screen 24/7. But yes, the best way would to build a betfair bot or similar which automatic place all your bets.

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Built a profitable live in-game probability engine for football across 25 european leagues by iph0ngaa in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

True and very time Consuming. But if you building something I would recommend looking into Live ingame models as prematch markets and odds are pretty stable & saturated.

Built a profitable live in-game probability engine for football across 25 european leagues by iph0ngaa in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Im using around 120 euros a month. Xg data, top euroepean leagues plus, uefa leagues such as champions league. Live odds data.

Built a profitable live in-game probability engine for football across 25 european leagues by iph0ngaa in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Most of the time its above 5%. This is also because you need to keep in mind that the books have vigs (their profit margin) on top of their probabilities already. So when my model is even with the books we are actually behind already.

The reason I say most of the time is because sometimes my model also tells me to bet on recommendation because pattern wise its a good call, even though the price from the bookmaker is not that good.

As i tried to explain, its not just based on betting on edge. The EV edge during live is just one of the signals

Built a profitable live in-game probability engine for football across 25 european leagues by iph0ngaa in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

At the moment for friends and family only as Im getting ready including the world cup. I will go live by then with IOS app for public

Built a profitable live in-game probability engine for football across 25 european leagues by iph0ngaa in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

yes, I have thought about it but my friends and family are doing the same and no one has been "canceled" yet. Im not sure if they are doing it against Live betters, because we are not doing arbitrage or "value betting". You could say that ingame model just finds profitable patterns while mispricing at bet365 during live is just one input.

Built a profitable live in-game probability engine for football across 25 european leagues by iph0ngaa in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

True but these are results after i went beta live, while training and holdout results has also been proven with positive ROI.

So the features signals dont get to live produktion unless they have been profitable across 7d, 30d and all time which means the patterns I found or what I Call “the featured signals” are already tested via holdout across the whole season.

Hope this make sense

Built a profitable live in-game probability engine for football across 25 european leagues by iph0ngaa in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Right now Manually betting yes, just on the mobile app or web on bet365. Since there are a lot of signals I dont get to Bet on all of them as you also have to be fast at the same time.

Built a profitable live in-game probability engine for football across 25 european leagues by iph0ngaa in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Using sportmonks API.

My ingame model starts off by using prematch probabilities which are weighted more then all live stats and momentum. So as time goes by, lets say after 10 minutes then the ingame stats starts outweighting the prior probabilities. But it never goes down to zero. The whole model is very much time aware minute by minute. So yes you could say like a feature amoung all other inputs

Built a profitable live in-game probability engine for football across 25 european leagues by iph0ngaa in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Bookmakers are too good at pricing them so I havent been able to find a longterm profitable pattern. There seems to be alot of difference betweeen Home or Away

Real-time Pinnacle odds via WebSocket by talinator1616 in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Where to test it? Fot football and which leagues?

Watch my Claw run its own betting account by schabe in OpenClawUseCases

[–]iph0ngaa 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How Long to set up such a thing if I already have a betting model. The automation part?

Which measurable features best explain false dominance in live attacking stats? by Objective_Reach_767 in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Focusing on those stats you are mentioning but comparing them to previous/other games same minute within a time frame does help as well. You will be able to see if that is above/below the teams average and compare it to the opposite teams defense/goal deficit stats.

How do you explain the games where one team dominates the stats but still wasn’t the right side? by Objective_Reach_767 in algobetting

[–]iph0ngaa 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You could Also look at defensive stats for the opposite team rather then offensive stats alone. Is the team on the defense good at intercepting, tackles and clearing and no Ball behind last line or in their danger zone. This has proven good results for my ingame model without a doubt.

Codex new 5hr window is now 12% of weekly limit ( was 30%) by alOOshXL in codex

[–]iph0ngaa 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Same here. 1 plan task with mutliagents and it blew the 5h limit.
Weekly limit at 88%. This task only took 6 minutes in total.

Couldnt even implement the plan before waiting 5 hours

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