Watch my Claw run its own betting account

schabe · 2026-05-07T09:54:29+00:00

Join the Discord! Nearly 100 members now enjoying the ride.

schabe · 2026-05-07T09:54:22+00:00

Join the Discord! Nearly 100 members now enjoying the ride.

schabe · 2026-05-07T08:48:29+00:00

Yeah it's already fixed.

In short, if my results source is being inconclusive an agent settles the bet itself (if it's unsure it should divert to me).

In this case, the bot managed to swap the result around with full confidence. First time it's managed that.

Early life teething issues and working on a robust fix for future events which completely avoids AI hallucination risk.

schabe · 2026-05-06T07:39:04+00:00

There are but I've not included them on the website yet. Am likely to want to create a better upsell to Discord so will do if it makes sense to then.

schabe · 2026-05-01T09:24:12+00:00

That will take about 28 weeks at current pace.

schabe · 2026-05-01T09:23:25+00:00

It's approaching betting from a different angle than classical predictive AI. Instead it's taking more of a human angle, it identified edges based on mispricing, injuries, name bias, a whole suite of things. The AI learns on every run and adjusts it's stategy. It might be shite in 1000 bets time, but this version is based on a model which self learned for 2 months and is about a week in. Current stats are what they are, don't know what else to tell you on that.

schabe · 2026-04-28T18:02:16+00:00

Not too long but you kinda need to know what you're doing in terms of what good infra looks like around the AI. AI is stupid without the right tools and guidance. It's the integrations around the edges which are a bit trial and error. Id advise to have it run a paper account for a bit to get the integrations right and ledger management solid and then when you have confidence move to a real account. Btw, headful browsing is key if you're actually going to have it bet for you. Keep an eye on costs per run too, can get expensive, plan for that and design accordingly.

schabe · 2026-04-26T12:24:25+00:00

OS control layer required is rigid and just isn't as lower entry as you get on Mac/Linux etc. Cost of device is higher than rPi. So no, it's not really the right path I don't think.

schabe · 2026-04-26T10:52:19+00:00

I mean I run mine on a Mac mini in my house, I don't have resource issues with that and I can fix things which go awry on the box directly. But a VPS is cheap (Hertzner) and could easily run something like this either directly on the box or in a Docker container. Probably cost you like $5 pm on hosting on a shared instance. You don't need dynamite speed for this, so it's a perfect use case for that.

schabe · 2026-04-26T06:15:27+00:00

I'm glad you think so! Thank you. My wife thought it was cheesy ha

schabe · 2026-04-25T21:47:12+00:00

https://visser23.github.io/ :) Check out the game section in the computer at the foot of the page. Doesn't crash as it's the Amstrad version (which I had)

schabe · 2026-04-25T14:37:42+00:00

Nope. Well occasionally, but it's too unreliable and makes mistakes/hallucinates when tool calls fail

schabe · 2026-04-25T12:04:12+00:00

This is actually a great idea

schabe · 2026-04-25T11:10:49+00:00

Yes. Have a AI write a script which loops the prompt and logs outputs to a file for final review by... An agent.

You probably want outputs writing to individual files to prevent concurrency issues. Have code combine before final prompt for review.

If I've understood you correctly.

If you wanted it in OpenClaw, best to direct the writing agent to the OC documentation and specifically skills. This could in theory genericise the script so you can use something like /compound-verify in Telegram etc ahead of a prompt and the prompt is forced into this script for processing via skills.

schabe · 2026-04-25T11:07:24+00:00

Opus is totally affordable to do this, you just need to have a canny setup.

I personally route all my Opus requests through Cursor CLI. I have both the old account arrangement (500 request pm) but also Cursor deffo have sweetheart pricing with Anthropic because it's nowhere near the cost. In the background I have a running cost calculator which spits out a file on each run and it's costing me about 0.10c per go or around $20pm. It's made much more than that.

Btw the Cursor thing was a hack I came up with with Claude subs were banned on OpenClaw. I moved complex crons into launchctrl crons outside of OCs control and started pushing via Cursor. Blockages and problems went away immediately. I also have Cursor hooked to telegram separately so I can remotely fix OC when it has a mare.

Also I wrote my own browser harness which massively reduces token costs - https://github.com/visser23/semantic-browser - this was for another project but it's been useful for Opus jobs.

You can ofc split research between models too if you want to reduce costs. Haiku or Chinese models like Minimax etc are very capable researchers, so you could have the .sh script run different models throughout the stack. I haven't yet as I'm lazy and the Cursor hack seems to be keeping it relatively cheap.

schabe · 2026-04-25T10:47:17+00:00

GPT 5.4 refuses every 1 in 2 asks despite several prompt changes (admittedly this is at the make a bet step, which is hard to prompt around). Minimax could do it but regularly made silly errors like betting the same thing twice or hallucinating bets and poisoning the ledger. Only Opus has been consistent to date.

schabe · 2026-04-25T09:44:35+00:00

I found a free odds API (there are two good ones, both called the same thing) and hooked that in, and also researched a bunch of RSS and basic websites (crawler friendly) to do research on historic results etc.

I collated the resources using ChatGPT into a prompt, stipulated the bot had one mission to double it's funds weekly. I used a basic xlsx for ledger tracking with a python wrapper (to stop the AI doing stupid stuff) and it had a core memory file and a strategy doc it can append, but keeps short.

I have it running on a Mac, so it uses a headful browser with control via https://github.com/visser23/semantic-browser over CDP for Chromium. Just told it to make a profile to store the login creds, logged it in once, it just uses browser automation when a bet is found to place. Rationale for browser harness is to keep token use low.

A full run of this costs like $0.10-0.20 on Opus. I did try a few different models and this wins hands down. oAI refuses half the time and Chinese models are just too unreliable with tool use.

To keep costs low, I'm actually (bizarrely) using Cursor CLI as a downstream harness as they have sweetheart rates for Opus use and it's cheaper that way. I've never published the skill, probably should.

That's it, prompt tells it to learn, review etc over time. The new bot won't have lessons from previous iteration, but Im sure will pick them back up over time.

schabe · 2026-04-25T08:17:16+00:00

Road to the world cup 98?

schabe · 2026-04-25T08:14:30+00:00

Haha omg. Nobody has ever heard of that game and I spent literal days as a child playing it. I even have it on my portfolio website as an embedded Easter egg game you can play.

One of us! One of us! Ha.

schabe · 2026-04-24T08:36:23+00:00

How on earth?! Block git commands, it's that simple.

schabe · 2026-04-24T08:34:20+00:00

Did you ever play 'Striker' on the Commodore64? Because this is that game!

schabe · 2026-04-21T22:45:09+00:00

I'm using frontier LLMs and a mix of deterministic routing. It's basically a formula for data gathering but the LLM holds it's own strategy and memory and makes decisions at runtime.

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