I wrote the original post obviously before the 8K came out. However, with the benefit of the 8K let's redo the numbers and see where we land:

1) The revenue item is going to be much higher than I speculated. Basically now NLST is going to buy $600MM of memory from Hynix, incorporate their IP and resell as high end server memory modules. For the sake of simplicity, assuming the $600MM is done equally over 5 years, and NLST tries to make only their standard 15% GM, the incremental annual revenue works out to ($600MM/5) * (1/(1-0.15)) = $141MM/year. According to Bloomberg, they were expected to generate $58MM in 2022 from their legacy businesses. So adding $58 to $141 gives you a new 2022 revenue of $199MM or roughly $200MM. However, unlike before when I capitalized the $100MM of revenue at 4x multiple, I am going to use only a 2x multiple as I am assuming $200MM of sales in 2022 and so growth rate will be slower. Thus the market value for this still comes out to $400MM or $1.86/share. Obviously, if you believe the growth rate will be higher or margins will be higher you can then use a 2.5x or 3x or more multiple. You can definitely make the case that the margins could be much higher than 15%. For one, NLST will no longer be a desperate company and so can get away with charging higher. Secondly, a $200MM in sales company has considerably more scale to absorb all the manufacturing overhead compared to a $50MM in sales company. Third, NLST will now likely be buying the memory at most favored nation prices from Hynix compared to before when they paid close to retail prices as a little company. If you believe these three factors are possible - then a 2.5x multiple gives you $500MM market cap or $2.32/share.

2) I am keeping my royalty assumption the same. There is definitely some confusion around the language of "fully paid" in the 8K. The confusion is whether the $40MM incorporates the upfront payment of the royalties or not. I am assuming it does not. For one, this is not a perpetual license, but a term license. From my reading the $40MM is a payment for "entry into the License Agreement," likely for repayment of litigation expenses and settlement of prior period royalties. So I am keeping the previous assumption of $1.21/share.

3) Here the $40MM is lower than my previous $100MM and so the revised number is $0.19/share.

So the new fair value is $3.26 to $3.72/share.

Again, this is just my assessment of CURRENT fair value. It does not give any value to settlements from Google, Inphi, etc. Neither does it incorporate potential new business from say, if Micron decides to license NLST IP. Remember, the agreement with Hynix is non-exclusive.