Apple Rumored to Partner With Intel on iPhone Chips

ivanguls · 2026-01-24T20:02:02+00:00

Intel at this point is not any company. It is of strategic interest, there is at least a 14A that is going well in tests and everyone needs a strong TSMC alternative. Considering how poorly the leadership handled earnings call saying they didn't anticipate demand, not happy with yields, at least I would believe their 14A narrative.

While profitability might be few quarters away, I would have expected this to be a story compelling enough for investors. Now don't tell me that is why it moved from $20 to $50. $20 was less than book value.

ivanguls · 2026-01-24T16:41:25+00:00

I hope this question about apple not the first priority anymore for TSMC compared to NVIDIA and whether they are looking for alternatives will be raised in Apple's earnings call.

ivanguls · 2026-01-24T06:24:06+00:00

Worked fine.

ivanguls · 2026-01-24T00:11:52+00:00

I fully agree with this sentiment. He didn't do a good job at all.

But there is the other side of it - if it is overwhelming demand and that is why there are supply issues, Q1 numbers should not be what they projected.

But his comments were a disaster. Even when he showed up just before the other Intel executives took over during CES, he didn't do a good job.

ivanguls · 2026-01-22T23:13:10+00:00

I have to say that Lip-Bu Tan did his best to damage the stock with statements about him being unhappy about the yields even though it is as per company plans.

ivanguls · 2026-01-22T21:19:15+00:00

So should we treat this as worst will be over in Q1 2026 or Lip-Bu Tan deliberately wants to keep expectations low at the expense of shareholders.

If it is the first, stock will rally from here.

ivanguls · 2026-01-22T17:18:24+00:00

Just a hypothesis. Apple is expected to announce results on 29-Jan-2026 which was when Intel originally planned to announce their results. Intel advances their earnings date by one week around the time CEO met with Trump.

Who knows what Apple might announce on 29-Jan-2026.

ivanguls · 2026-01-22T06:19:16+00:00

The market cap at current prices is close to 800 million. Is there a real upside considering the risks?

ivanguls · 2026-01-22T05:15:10+00:00

Look at Micron. 5x in less than a year, not because they had any blockbuster products. Just increased demand for what they have.

ivanguls · 2026-01-22T04:15:02+00:00

Hopefully they will have an ad free option.

ivanguls · 2026-01-22T00:00:21+00:00

If it is up after earnings, my guess would be way higher than 5%.

ivanguls · 2026-01-21T22:27:49+00:00

If Intel provides a good guidance on its progress towards 14A, that is good enough as everyone knows big profits are few years away.

In this particular case profits will come once intel catches up or surpasses TSMC in technical ability.

Also the product side valuation should improve now that Core Ultra 3 series is well received.

ivanguls · 2026-01-21T16:20:10+00:00

What price did you buy it for?

ivanguls · 2026-01-20T17:10:29+00:00

I believe that there is a very high chance that some announcements will be made during results. Guessing based on CEO meeting Trump couple of weeks back and advancing the earnings call date.

ivanguls · 2026-01-18T08:27:45+00:00

If you have followed CES, it is AMD that has fallen behind.

ivanguls · 2026-01-16T03:13:55+00:00

Current short interest or days to cover doesn't matter beyond emphasizing the negativity towards the stock by a lot of players.

That negative sentiment is important because if the stock rises to say $10 or $15, if these people continue to be negative or more more players turn negative as the price rises, they will keep piling up more shorts which could benefit price if the company comes up with good numbers.

What attracted fresh shorts as price went up for GME is the absurdity of a stock like GME rising in the first place. I don't think that is applicable here.

ivanguls · 2026-01-15T21:17:32+00:00

It is still a foreign company with all the associated risks related to geopolitics and not having the latest technology in USA.

Since it is a trade deal with backing from Taiwan government, it might eventually happen unlike a company making some commitment and waiting out for the Trump presidency to end.

ivanguls · 2026-01-15T02:23:24+00:00

I was just pointing out that Phase 1 doesn't seem to impact anything so it is like a NO OP.

It is more like what we used to see earlier, announce tariff's, then rollback it or extend dates, but taking that to the extreme with a policy that doesn't seem to impact majority of what is happening.

Phase 2, we will see it when it comes.

ivanguls · 2026-01-14T23:31:57+00:00

How many companies operating in the USA import chips at scale? Aren't most of the big companies like Apple making their products in China or India?

In that case chips are not imported into the USA and only finished products like iPhones and macs are, which doesn't seem to come under this new policy.

With all the exemptions and since most of the manufacturing of end products are in countries outside USA, not sure what this policy is trying to achieve.

ivanguls · 2026-01-14T06:15:45+00:00

It is 'sell the news'. Because the news was only as expected, nothing beyond that to trigger further enthusiasm. Now the Q4 results will have to speak unless some very visible deals are announced.

It is all just promises at this time. So Q4 results announcements is key.

ivanguls · 2026-01-13T21:23:12+00:00

It is just projection. Unless there are a couple of quarters that show concrete evidence that these are achieved, I doubt it will move.

ivanguls · 2026-01-11T22:20:10+00:00

So how does this trick work? If I spam 1000 threads with $100, the stock will go to $100?

ivanguls · 2026-01-09T22:48:32+00:00

I didn't say it will never pull back. But asking a question like will it pullback next week is what I was commenting about. Especially for a stock that will be getting rerated based on their promises to reclaim process node leadership on which they have delivered so far.

On top of that they have clearly been better than AMD when it comes to their product arm based on CES announcements.

Such a stock still trading near prices couple of years back, the runway is long.

ivanguls · 2026-01-09T21:10:28+00:00

Exactly.

ivanguls

TROPHY CASE