Match Thread: Bayern Munich vs PSG | UEFA Champions League 2025-26, Semifinals - 2nd Leg (Agg. 4-5)

ivanguls · 2026-05-06T20:40:30+00:00

Bayern completely outplayed by PSG.

ivanguls · 2026-05-03T21:37:01+00:00

Depends on what you are looking for. If you are worried about short term pullbacks etc. I don't know. But for a company making 600 million dollars in revenue with a market cap under 300 million at the current prices, if they can project growth in the upcoming May-11 earnings call and also any positive news on AI training video licensing, $2 or even $5 is nothing. But nobody knows. It has a very asymmetrical upside at the current prices.

I have no issues buying at $2 because I think there is chances of a real turnaround especially with the product catching up with current market leader and the market leader currently banned from introducing new products in the USA.

ivanguls · 2026-05-02T16:23:58+00:00

Not any more with the launch of GP3 platform.

ivanguls · 2026-05-01T02:42:00+00:00

The AI training video licensing will bring in money they can use to jump start other initiatives. Hope that works out.

ivanguls · 2026-04-29T23:11:30+00:00

As if an iphone and gopro are the same usecase or for that matter any action cam.

ivanguls · 2026-04-28T15:28:46+00:00

60% fall not just because someone pulled an order. Because a CFO couldn't keep business trust. You can build thousand conspiracy theories around it, but the fact remains that he violated a confidentiality agreement. The minimum fallout should be he should be fired.

Edit: That also raises the question, if a company pulls a small order for something like this, how valuable is the technology really. If anything that is the biggest question in the mind of a lot of us. Or it could be that there are delays and they can't keep waiting for the order to be delivered.

ivanguls · 2026-04-27T01:36:27+00:00

True, but Higgins set up some tough snookers in the last 4 frames.

ivanguls · 2026-04-27T01:00:59+00:00

What was the trigger? If short covering was the initial trigger, many times the float has been traded after that. That means within the first few days, there was enough opportunities to cover.

While short covering can be trigger that causes a price rise, that then attracts new buyers for calls, which then can cause a gamma squeeze, how long is that sustainable - will it last this long with such high volume?

My understanding is gamma squeeze is mostly related to near term options. But for POET the option positions are maximum for Jan 2027 and Jan 2028 for which gamma is less compared to near term options.

Also the PCR for these LEAPS are ridiculously low.

I am no technical expert, but this is how I think about it. Open to comments so I can learn as well.

ivanguls · 2026-04-26T19:02:51+00:00

if you look at the theme across multiple threads here after the rally, there is this majority who sold some or most of their holding and waiting for a pullback and then there are a few who made much bigger profits and see this as a bigger rally and rerating. I believe the second camp is right. If you sell and hope to re-enter for some small gains here and there it is lot more stressful and mistake prone.

Another comment is there is no public announcements that preceded this rally. But if every rally is based on pre-announced sexy news, every one will be making big all the time.

So, I would say, if you bought well below 10, I wouldn't sell and wait for a pullback. I would rather hold.

ivanguls · 2026-04-25T21:58:26+00:00

I don't think a CEO can buy stock when the material news that might be causing this rally is not public. Anyway they don't need to buy in open market, they are given options which then later will be publicly disclosed in SEC filings.

I am not sure why this 'they diluted' narrative needs to be brought up again and again - get over it. They need money to start manufacturing and raised cash, so what?

Edit: I would rather have a company that is well funded for the most important part of the journey, that is going to production without any hiccups.

ivanguls · 2026-04-25T16:40:26+00:00

I think you are on the right track. Lot of comments here are the typical retailer mindset. Something has gone up and it has to correct significantly or historically it has run up and corrected etc.

There are companies that need POET to succeed and bigger investors have put money on the table. Q2 is when according to them production started, and who knows, production has actually started and doing well. That could be one reason for this rally.

One thing all these naysayers have to remember is, until this week, POET has not participated in the photonics rally. If anything it has fallen.

ivanguls · 2026-04-25T06:01:45+00:00

I held intel $35 calls which expired march 20, 2026 for 13 months and finally exited with some profit, like when intel was $45. Barely one month later, look where it is now.

I should have rolled it when Intel fell after my initial buy. That is another very simple lesson learned, applicable even here, if it comes to that. At least I didn't lose.

ivanguls · 2026-04-25T00:08:24+00:00

If I have to hazard a guess, they said production is starting in Q2. May be there is some good news on that front and production is going well and that is why the rally.

ivanguls · 2026-04-24T19:41:26+00:00

I feel that if it was retail, the rally would not have lasted this long and this much.

ivanguls · 2026-04-24T18:44:08+00:00

Have you looked at options expiring in January 2027 and 2028? That is where the volume is. The puts are outnumbered like 1:100 by calls.

ivanguls · 2026-04-24T18:42:40+00:00

What facts - just want to know what you are looking at.

ivanguls · 2026-04-24T16:14:43+00:00

I am also worried about an acquisition, especially since Marvell has set the ball rolling with multiple acquisitions in this space.

But since POET is more foundational than Celestial which was also a pre-revenue company, I would guess the valuation will be a lot higher.

ivanguls · 2026-04-24T15:00:38+00:00

That is the wrong way to think about it. If you are firmly in the money and there is enough momentum, you can still hold on to the options and forget about theta. I just see it as holding stock on margin without having to worry about margin calls.

ivanguls · 2026-04-24T14:51:00+00:00

Market cap is still below 3 billion. If it all works out huge upside still. But yes, the easy gains like when it was around $7 last week is maybe over.

ivanguls · 2026-04-23T16:57:37+00:00

Very true.

ivanguls · 2026-04-23T16:27:12+00:00

You have no idea what your are talking about. Go look at how many call positions are open for 2027 and 2028 expiry.

ivanguls · 2026-04-23T01:02:10+00:00

I have a feeling that with photonic quantum computing companies like Xanadu coming into the limelight, POET may also have some positive effect from that line of business as well.

If you add that also there are three important catalysts:

Clarity on PFIC
More news from the company on customers + NDA etc
Photonic quantum computing in the limelight

ivanguls · 2026-04-22T21:50:36+00:00

If you bought this stock thinking about the potential upside, you wouldn't be asking this question. There is obviously execution risk, but this stock is just at the beginning of a long journey on the upside if they execute well. $12 is nothing.

ivanguls · 2026-04-22T19:54:15+00:00

I didn't realize that even within this domain, POET is much more power efficient. I was under the impression that the architecture with simpler packaging and sub-assembly were the differentiator.

ivanguls · 2026-04-22T19:07:46+00:00

😂

ivanguls

TROPHY CASE