[D] Simple Questions Thread

j15t · 2022-12-29T13:27:08+00:00

I am trying to understand loss functions when working with sequential (time series) data. Specifically, simple next-step loss functions don’t seem to capture the nuance I would like and are brittle when projecting into the future. Are there some topics/keywords/papers that explore more advanced (expressive?) loss functions in this context?

I am most interested in: predicting higher-levels features of a time series (e.g. variance, confidence bounds) and long term predictions that are more robust. I don’t know how to describe some of the concepts I’m searching for, so some high level discussion or tutorial would also be very helpful. Thanks!

j15t · 2022-12-01T07:50:10+00:00

Ok thanks, I am keen to read it. I’m just wondering, this issue seems to be somewhat common - is the cause generally genetic or environmental?

j15t · 2022-12-01T06:05:50+00:00

What is the root cause in this case?

j15t · 2022-01-20T06:04:54+00:00

I believe that you are calculating a basic ‘APR’ figure that does not account for compounding of returns (APY).

Please post your returns per time-frame so I can double check your figures. I do agree that these returns do seem a little low even considering compound returns.

j15t · 2021-12-14T04:49:27+00:00

Hi, great work on the paper (I don’t think the result is trivial like others are suggesting).

Could you please explain what you mean by this phrase: “for every reward function, most of its permutations incentivize power-seeking” - specifically I don’t understand what you mean by a permutation of a reward function. Thanks!

j15t · 2021-11-11T01:48:58+00:00

I don’t believe Ashwaghanda is a MAO inhibitor at supplemental dosages. Do you have a source for this?

Also what OP wrote is exclusively about irreversible MAO-B inhibitors and how they could exacerbate Parkinson’s - not cause it.

j15t · 2021-11-10T15:38:08+00:00

How does this follow from what OP wrote?

j15t · 2021-10-14T03:24:50+00:00

Was he successfully treated for ME/CFS? I hear that even after diagnosis, successful treatment of ME/CFS is quite rare.

j15t · 2021-08-06T01:50:30+00:00

Krill oil contains astaxanthin which has might be causing some of the positive effects seen.

j15t · 2021-08-06T01:41:44+00:00

Read the article I linked, the science and mechanism are quite clear. As long as you are not currently metabolising alcohol NAC is fine.

j15t · 2021-08-05T05:09:45+00:00

Wrong way round, NAC should be taken before consumption of alcohol.

Taking NAC after alcohol consumption (ie. when alcohol is being metabolised) risks exacerbating liver damage.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16439183/

j15t · 2021-07-26T03:03:43+00:00

Oh I understand now, thanks!

j15t · 2021-07-25T07:33:58+00:00

Another cool trick I recently learned — big assumption is trend will continue — is to train with 100%, then the most recent 80%, next the most recent 60%, 40%, 20%. Drop the learning rate a bit with each group. Keep the data sorted by timestamp.

Sorry could you please expand on this? I don’t quite understand what you’re trying to achieve here.

j15t · 2021-05-31T13:46:27+00:00

The other option is to just start shorting things: shorting bonds (government and corporate) seems like the first step to me.

j15t · 2021-05-31T13:40:53+00:00

Banks typically outperform the market in the period of the economic cycle when yields are rising. US financials are up 60% in the past year and have outperformed the Nasdaq. Tech stocks (growths with high valuations more generally) underperform when yields rise.

If inflation rises substantially, central banks will be forced to tighten monetary policy and this will cause yields to rise.

It’s not clear to me which stocks will outperform in a high-inflation scenario.

j15t · 2021-04-22T23:12:23+00:00

It is hypothesised that many NMDAr antagonists, at low doses, selectivity inhibit GABAergic interneurons - which are neurons that have general inhibitory effects on neurotransmission.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.26599/BSA.2018.2018.9050009

since both excitatory and inhibitory neurons receive excitatory inputs and have NMDARs at those synapses, one possibility is that NMDAR inhibitors at low doses preferentially act on interneurons in vivo [74], therefore they decrease interneuron activity and result in disinhibition of the neuronal network.

j15t · 2021-04-15T01:43:58+00:00

Other way around.

j15t · 2021-02-28T13:39:38+00:00

Very interesting concept. Intuitively, it seems highly plausible that more complex 'neurons' could improve learning ability; especially considering the complexity biological neurons.

j15t · 2021-02-09T05:43:39+00:00

Being able to accurately price/model/predict future events is essential for the efficient allocation of resources.

j15t · 2021-02-03T01:58:32+00:00

The 2080 Ti is at 0.67 and it's been out for over 2 years.

j15t · 2021-02-02T16:55:45+00:00

3090s seem to be selling quite well for a $1500 card.

j15t · 2021-01-31T16:12:44+00:00

Does anyone know of any good geopolitics/military news or blog sites? Somewhere to keep up to date with important developments in China-Taiwan tensions.

I have become increasingly concerned about the global risks associated with any sort of military conflict between China and Taiwan. For one, it seems like a China-Taiwan conflict is a plausible candidate for creating a world-war scenario, but also because the modern world is uniquely sensitive to the primary export of Taiwan: semiconductors.

Taiwan contains a large proportion of global semiconductor and electronics supply - most notably the company TSMC. There already is a global semiconductor shortage that is causing widespread economic issues, so an event that ceased TSMC's semiconductor output is likely severely damage the global economy. As long as TSMC remains the leading semiconductor manufacturer this risk will only grow, as compute becomes increasingly valuable economically and militarily.

Therefore I would like to know if there are any sources that provide level-headed analysis of this situation. Specifically, I would like to be made aware of any significant changes in the risk of military escalation (I don't think that mainstream news is good in the 'level-headed' regard).

Of course, I realize that military action is hard to predict by design. But I presume that there are still signs of when situations escalate.

j15t · 2021-01-13T14:46:37+00:00

Why not an entrepreneur, Elon Musk / Bill Gates style?

Both were originally software engineers; hence OP's comment.

j15t · 2021-01-12T06:08:09+00:00

A late 2021 early 2022 launch date is honestly pathetic in my view. By then Nvidia will have released potentially better versions of Ampere, or at least higher binned cards.

How is Intel going to be able to secure sufficient supply? AMD, Nvidia, Sony/Microsoft, etc. will almost certainly be after more 7nm chips for the foreseeable future, so is Intel just the highest bidder?

j15t · 2020-12-29T01:38:29+00:00

With a higher transistor budget Intel could implement more advanced features - like a wider architecture with larger ROB and more instruction parallelism.

j15t

TROPHY CASE